MLB DFS Breakdown – Welcome home Manny Machado – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Breakdown – Welcome home Manny Machado – The Quant Edge

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we target value to pair up with heavy hitters such as Manny Machado, Edwin Encarnacion and Mike Trout.

New York Mets (4.9) @ Philadelphia Phillies (6.2)

Walker Lockett (RHP) @ Jake Arrieta (RHP)

Over/Under: 11 Moneyline: PHI -167

Pitcher Breakdown: We know more about Jake Arrieta than we do Walker Lockett, but neither are options tonight. Arrieta enters with an 83 percent contact rate and 73:37 K:BB over 91.2 innings. He’s allowed 15 homers (10 vs LHB).

Batter Breakdown: For the second straight game, I would target NYM lefty bats: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano for value. Conforto has the highest ceiling as lefties have a .374 wOBA against Arrieta.

Bryce Harper enters on a five-game hit streak in which he has five RBI, three runs and a homer. Lockett couldn’t get out of the third inning in his first start as he allowed six runs on five hits over 2.1 innings. He’s had very low strikeout rates in the minors, but a solid GB%. I still like Harper and Rhys Hoskins in tournaments as PHI may be able to build off last night’s outburst.

Toronto Blue Jays (4.5) @ New York Yankees (7.7)

Clayton Richard (LHP) @ Chad Green (RHP)

Over/Under: 12 Moneyline: NYY -286

Pitcher Breakdown: Clayton Richard has surrendered 29 hits, 21 runs, five homers and 15 walks in 25.1 innings. He’s walked more batters than he’s struck out and he’s allowed at least one bomb in his last five starts. He’ll be hard pressed to stop the Yankees’ consecutive home run streak, which is at 27.

Batter Breakdown: We’ll get to the Yankees in a minute, but I wouldn’t completely ignore the Blue Jays. They easily hit their 3.5 team implied total in Game 1 and I would jump on that prop again. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Lourdes Gurriel are extremely affordable on FanDuel.

The Yankees worked out yesterday and it’s hard not to imagine them working out again considering Richard has allowed 16 runs in his last 12.2 innings. Like yesterday, I’m attacking value with Aaron Hicks and Gleyber Torres (FanDuel). If I’m spending up – and I think we all should – Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. I really like Edwin Encarnacion and he’s one of the better values on FanDuel. You can easily get that big three in on FanDuel. I’d suggest playing around with a couple of different options because 1 through 9, they can hit. DJ LeMahieu is riding a 10-game hit streak, which includes three bombs, 10 RBI and 13 runs. He was 4-for-4 in yesterday’s win.

The over is a strong play. I mean, look at the team implied total in New York. My goodness.

San Diego Padres (6.2) @ Baltimore Orioles (4.5)

Logan Allen (LHP) @ Jimmy Yacobonis (RHP)

Over/Under: 10.5 Moneyline: BAL +175

Pitcher Breakdown: Logan Allen is an interesting tournament arm, but he’s more expensive than I thought he would be. Allen was brilliant in his MLB debut as he tossed seven scoreless innings against the Brewers. He only allowed three hits and struck out five. The environment isn’t as nice, but the matchup is certainly better and his team will score some runs for him. Allen has had great strikeout rates in the minors, but walks have been a concern.

Jimmy Yacobonis checks in with a 82 percent contact rate and 47 percent fly ball rate. Those two just don’t mix in Baltimore. He won’t be long for the game, and his replacement won’t be much better.

Batter Breakdown: It’s very difficult to spend up for Fernando Tatis Jr. on DraftKings, but it’s very easy to get him and the rest of the Padres in on FanDuel. In fact, it’s too easy. Manny Machado – who will be doing everything in his power to hit a home run during his return to Baltimore – is on an amazing run and he’s $3.9K. Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes and Josh Naylor all have serious power and are $3K and under.

Kansas City Royals (3.6) @ Cleveland Indians (6)

Glenn Sparkman (RHP) @ Shane Bieber (LHP)

Over/Under: 9.5   Moneyline: CLE -250

Pitcher Breakdown: Shane Bieber is a decent pivot from the top of the board thanks to his 116 strikeouts over 91 innings. He’s kind of in the spot where you just spend up or down, but a worthy GPP candidate.

Glenn Sparkman has coughed up five homers in his last five starts and he only has 27 strikeouts over his 49.2 innings. An 86 percent contact rate is what Sparkman is rocking, which would be the highest in the league if he had the innings to qualify.

Batter Breakdown: If Jose Ramirez can’t hit Sparkman, then I don’t know what to tell ya. Lefties have six bombs and a .351 wOBA vs Sparkman and Jason Kipnis made us look smart here at The Quant Edge yesterday. He appeared in this article and was a popular play inside the chat. Kipnis enters on a seven-game hit streak in which he has five multi-hit games, three homers and 11 RBI. Kipnis, Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are steals on FanDuel. Bobby Bradley is free on FanDuel.

Washington Nationals (4.4) @ Miami Marlins (2.7)

Max Scherzer (RHP) @ Trevor Richards (RHP)

Over/Under: 7  Moneyline: MIA +210

Pitcher Breakdown: It’s hard to feel super safe about a cash game lineup that consists of Max Scherzer. It’s nothing against him because he should return value, but rostering him may hurt the rest of your squad. I’d probably drop down to Gerrit Cole in cash to get more balance and try Scherzer out in tournaments. You’ll have to take some shots on guys if you roster Scherzer, but it’s worth it and there’s enough value to make it work. I have too much respect for Trevor Richards to stack Washington bats.

Texas Rangers (5.5) @ Detroit Tigers (4.6)

Jesse Chavez (RHP) @ Jordan Zimmermann (RHP)

Over/Under: 10  Moneyline: DET +130

Pitcher Breakdown: I’m streaming Jesse Chavez in a deep season-long league, so I do believe he can go five and get me a win. That’s what I’m after. He tossed three innings in a start on the 14th, and he tossed five innings his very next time out on the 19th. I think he’s valuable given the price, but it could go very wrong. I don’t hate a Scherzer/Chavez pairing in tournaments, though. The matchup isn’t tough and the Tigers have the second-highest strikeout rate. They also rank in the bottom three in wOBA, ISO, wRC+ and HR.

Chavez’s Rangers also have a plus matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, which could very well mean a win for him. Zimmermann has allowed 35 hits, 23 runs and six homers over 34.1 innings. All he does is allow contact (83%) and fly balls (42%), which leads to homers (53 since 2017).

Batter Breakdown: Lefties have a .534 SLG and .381 wOBA vs Zimmermann this season and the Rangers have a lot of them. What a time for Joey Gallo to return to the lineup. He may get overlooked with this being his first game back. Nomar Mazara hit three bombs in his last series, and I’m always willing to take the discount/shot in tournaments on Rougned Odor. The safest cash game play from TEX may be Shin-Soo Choo. Give me…1,2,4,5 and 7 in this lineup.

Chicago White Sox (3.9) @ Boston Red Sox (6.7)

Carson Fulmer (RHP) @ David Price (LHP)

Over/Under: 10.5  Moneyline: BOS -280

Pitcher Breakdown: In 78.2 career innings, Carson Fulmer has allowed 76 hits, 63 runs, 15 homers and 55 walks. That works out to a 6.64 ERA, 14 HR/FB% and 6.29 BB/9.

David Price is one of the better values of the night and I have no problem with him being your one FanDuel SP in tournaments and cash. The White Sox have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball and the Red Sox are huge home favorites.

Batter Breakdown: The Red Sox are a good pivot from the Yankees because they should be able to score a few runs in this game. J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts may get overlooked for NYY bats. Rafael Devers is a strong value play on FanDuel, while Jackie Bradley Jr. projects well on both sites as a cheap tournament bat. He’s moved up to the five-spot.

Atlanta Braves (6.1) @ Chicago Cubs (6.1)

Max Fried (LHP) @ Adbert Alzolay (RHP)

Over/Under: 12 Moneyline: CHC -108

Pitcher Breakdown: Max Fried has allowed 89 hits in 82.2 innings and at least seven in four of his past five outings. Most of the contact he’s allowed has come on the ground, but his upside is capped in a matchup against the Cubs.

Adbert Alzolay will make his first MLB start tonight, but he does have four innings of experience out of the pen. Those came last week against the Mets and Alzolay didn’t look out of place as he only allowed one hit (solo HR) and struck out five. He racked up 46 strikeouts in 32 Triple-A innings before his call up, but he had a 5 ERA. It’s the Braves…I’m not going there.

Batter Breakdown: Vegas has this game at 12 and they were dead on last night with Atlanta only scoring three runs. I’d imagine we’ll see some runs again and there’s some value to be had if you’re playing on FanDuel: Javier Baez, Josh Donaldson and Ozzie Albies are three that stand out. Baez and Kris Bryant are strong RHB to roster. Those who were burned by ATL yesterday may go another way. I wouldn’t.

Tampa Bay Rays (4.8) @ Minnesota Twins (4.8)

Blake Snell (LHP) @ Kyle Gibson (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: MIN -107

Pitcher Breakdown: Blake Snell is nothing more than a tournament option due to his recent struggles. There’s a bit of a price discount (probably not enough) and he’s in a very tough spot against Minnesota. All of that spells low ownership. The Twins are struggling themselves, so there’s a contrarian thought process here that could work out. I’ll have a share or two myself, but I’m on the side of the Twins getting to Snell due to his recent command issues. Also, the strikeouts haven’t been there lately and the Twins don’t strikeout.

Batter Breakdown: If Snell struggles, it’s because of lefty killers C.J. Cron and Nelson Cruz. Mitch Garver is someone to consider on FanDuel too.

Seattle Mariners (4.5) @ Milwaukee Brewers (6.1)

Marco Gonzales (LHP) @ Zach Davies (RHP)

Over/Under: 10.5 Moneyline: MIL -179

Pitcher Breakdown: There’s a lot of contact to be had in this game as both pitchers rank inside the top 10 in contact percentage. Marco Gonzales is sitting at 84 percent and Zach Davies is at 83 percent. Neither miss enough bats so they are not options.

Batter Breakdown: The Mariners make for a cheap, under-the-radar tournament stack. If you’re looking for salary relief because you feel strongly about Scherzer, take a look at some of these SEA bats. Lefties are slashing .295/.365/.497 with a .364 wOBA against Davies. Seattle has a ton of lefties and they just finished a four-game series in which they scored 32 runs. Dan Vogelbach and Kyle Seager are where I’d look for home runs. J.P. Crawford is hitting .300 and is fresh off a 4-for-4 game in which he went deep. He’s just $2.9K on FD. Even Omar Narvaez at $2.8K.

Most will look to stack Brewers and I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with that, but Seattle has a chance to keep pace here. Right-handed hitters have eight homers against Gonzales, so maybe we’ll see Jesus Aguilar in the lineup. He and Ryan Braun are cheap GPP options.

Pittsburgh Pirates (3.1) @ Houston Astros (5.5)

Trevor Williams (RHP) @ Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: HOU -294

Pitcher Breakdown: Gerrit Cole is the perfect pivot from Max Scherzer. He’s basically Scherzer, let’s be honest. His matchup may be slightly easier than Max’s – who, by the way, was lit up earlier this year by MIA – but it’s Cole who is averaging more fantasy points per game than Scherzer and is much cheaper. I believe he’ll have a higher ownership than Scherzer and I think he’s a good cash game option.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed hitters are slashing .301/.347/.441 with a .336 wOBA vs Trevor Williams. How could you seriously consider fading Yordan Alvarez are this point?

Oakland Athletics (4.1) @ St. Louis Cardinals (5)

Chris Bassitt (RHP) @ Jack Flaherty (RHP)

Over/Under: 9  Moneyline: STL -145

Pitcher Breakdown: DraftKings has Chris Bassitt at $9.3K and Jack Flaherty at $7.9K. I don’t know what I’m missing, but if you told me that in March, I would have said you’re drunk. Go away! Flaherty has been mediocre at best, but he’s been much better at home (2.49 ERA) and is cheap. I don’t love him as my one SP on FanDuel because there’s a bit of risk and the A’s don’t strikeout a ton, but he’s a strong second option on DK.

Batter Breakdown: Nobody is thinking about Paul Goldschmidt and it feels like now is the time to be on him.

Los Angeles Dodgers (4.8) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (4.8)

Ross Stripling (RHP) @ Robbie Ray (LHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: ARI -105

Pitcher Breakdown: This will be Ross Stripling‘s first start since April 25th, so he’s not an option, and Robbie Ray generates too many walks and homers. Ray has issued 43 walks in 88.1 innings and has allowed seven homers in his past six games. It’s the reason he doesn’t go deep into ball games because Ray has been good vs LAD this season as he has 18 strikeouts in 12 innings.

Batter Breakdown: Most of the damage against Ray has come from righties, not lefties, so that could explain some of the struggles Los Angeles has had. They still scored six runs and hit two homers in their two outings against Ray, but don’t be surprised if he limits the damage again. The two I like the most from a late slate GPP mindset are Kike Hernandez and Justin Turner.

Colorado Rockies (3.6) @ San Francisco Giants (4.5)

Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP) @ Madison Bumgarner (LHP)

Over/Under: 8  Moneyline: SF -161

Pitcher Breakdown: Madison Bumgarner may be the best arm to roster if you’re playing the late slate. The Rockies have the fifth-highest K-Rate vs southpaws and some of that has to do with Mad Bum as he’s racked up 15 strikeouts in 13 games against them. They only mustered two runs against lefty Drew Pomeranz last night and their total keeps declining.

Batter Breakdown: I will say this about Colorado tonight, Bumgarner has allowed at least one homer in eight of his past nine games. If anyone’s going to do it, it’s Nolan Arenado, despite a strong season vs LHP from David Dahl.

The Giants have a 4.5 team implied total and a great matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez. I won’t bother going there, but you could easily save some money with Brandon Belt, Kevin Pillar and Evan Longoria.

Cincinnati Reds (4.1) @ Los Angeles Angels (5)

Tyler Mahle (RHP) @ Andrew Heaney (LHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: LAA -146

Pitcher Breakdown: Tyler Mahle and Andrew Heaney are going to allow a couple of home runs tonight, there’s really no denying it. Heaney has a ridiculous 63 FB% and 47 HH%. He’s leaving some pitches up in the zone and hitters are taking advantage as the Angels’ pitcher has allowed seven HR in five starts. He may very well strikeout 7-9 batters, but his 3.55 BB/9 and 17.5 HR/FB% is a thing right now.

Mahle’s FB% isn’t quite as high (33%), but he’s allowed 13 homers in 77.2 innings this season (18.3 HR/FB%) and he gave up 22 over 112 innings last season. He’s coughed up at least one bomb in 11 of 14 starts.

Batter Breakdown: Yasiel Puig is in one of those grooves and Eugenio Suarez has a great track record vs LHP.

Mike Trout is hitting .362 with four homers, 17 runs and 12 RBI in the last two weeks as he’s been much better with Shohei Ohtani hitting behind him. Justin Upton had three bombs in his first week back. Those are the three I would consider and if you’re looking for a fourth, it’s Kole Calhoun. He and Ohtani have 16 HRs vs RHP.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Max Scherzer

Best Value Pitchers: David Price, Jack Flaherty & Jesse Chavez

Pitchers I’m feeling: Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Jack Flaherty, David Price & Jesse Chavez

Contrarian GPP option: Madison Bumgarner

Pitchers to fade: Blake Snell, Chris Bassitt & Ross Stripling

Pitchers to pick on: Carson Fulmer, Clayton Richard, Jimmy Yacabonis, Walker Lockett & Zach Davies

Best Overall Hitters: DJ LeMahieu, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Anthony Rendon, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Freddie Freeman, Christian Yelich, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley & Mike Trout

Best value Hitters (DK): Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Hicks, Robinson Cano, Rougned Odor, Jesus Aguilar, Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Turner, Brandon Belt, Eugenio Suarez & Justin Upton

Best value Hitters (FD): Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel, Aaron Hicks, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, Edwin Encarnacion, Robinson Cano, Scott Kingery, Fernando Tatis Jr., Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Josh Naylor, Jason Kipnis, Willie Calhoun, Rougned Odor, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr., Josh Donaldson, Javier Baez, Ji-Man Choi, Mitch Garver, J.P. Crawford, Omar Navarez, Kyle Seager, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Jose Altuve, Bobby Bradley, Paul Goldschmidt, Kike Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, Shohei Ohtani & Kole Calhoun

Home Run Call of the Day: Manny Machado

Others HR calls to consider: Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Franmil Reyes, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Freddie Freeman, Javier Baez, Nelson Cruz, Dan Vogelbach, Yordan Alvarez, Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig, Mike Trout & Justin Upton

Stack ranks: NYY, BOS, SD, TEX, ATL, PHI & CHC

Underrated stack: LAA, CLE, SEA, TOR & SF

Stacks to fade: MIL & HOU

Bet of the Day: SD -190

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