Only five-games being played Saturday night in what’s a relatively quiet night of baseball. The Yankees will be looked upon heavily tonight as they draw a really strong matchup against the surprising Wade Miley. Let’s jump into tonight’s MLB DFS Breakdown and as always, you can reach me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Houston Astros (4.5) @ New York Yankees (5.6)
Wade Miley (LHP) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (RHP)
Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: Yankees -154
Pitcher Breakdown: Our MLB Line Movement tool indicates that Yankees run total has moved to 6.1 runs against Miley tonight. I had no interest in him, to begin with, but that helps solidify my thinking. This Yankees lineup simply boasts way too much power to even consider him. As for Tanaka, he’s a bit of a boom-or-bust option. This Astros lineup is still a bit beat up but they still have a .185 ISO against right-handed pitching. They also aren’t striking out much either and sport a 17.3 K%, which could limit the upside Tanaka has here. I’m not crazy about him but on a five-game slate, the options are limited to begin with.
Hitter Breakdown: The Yankees are the primary target in this game. Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion and Giancarlo Stanton would be the guys you want to consider. Miley is having issues with home runs so these guys all boast tremendous power in these matchups. Of course, stacking the Yankees would be optimal as well, so feel free to include Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres. As for the Astros, Yordan Alvarez continues to defy everyone expectations and has a .467 ISO against righties. Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley and Robinson Chirinos will all be in good spots in this game as well.
Atlanta Braves (3.6) @ Washington Nationals (4)
Mike Foltynewicz (RHP) vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP)
Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: Nationals -130
Pitcher Breakdown: This game has taken some MASSIVE action and currently has a 10.5 total. The Braves moved up to 5.2 runs while the Nationals are at 5.4. So don’t be fooled by those opening lines, I have no clue how they were even set at that. Neither pitcher is in consideration for me and these massive movements should dissuade you from doing so.
Hitter Breakdown: This is another game where you should be targeting heavily for offense. When Sanchez has allowed the brunt of offense has been against lefties. Entering this game he has a .374 wOBA with a 4.80 xFIP and eight of his nine home runs allowed. With that in mind, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ozzie Albies and Brian McCann should all be considered. Quite frankly, I love stacking those four as it spreads out through the entire lineup.
Against Foltynewicz, righties have been the one to hit him the hardest, although both sides of the plate have had their fair share. Home runs have especially been an issue for him, allowing 15 on the season. I think the best options in this game would be Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Matt Adams and Anthony Rendon. Don’t sleep on this game!
Colorado Rockies (2.9) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (4.7)
Peter Lambert (RHP) vs. Hyun-jin Ryu (LHP)
Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: Dodgers -255
Pitcher Breakdown: Need a starting pitcher to use? Here is your game. It’s not going to be sneaky by any means by Ryu is my first, second and third option in this matchup against the Rockies. We have this perceived notion that the Rockies are this massive force overall against lefties and that’s true to a point. It just ends once they leave Coors Field and go on the road. On the road against lefties, they sport just a .291 wOBA with a .176 ISO and a 30.1 K%. Not to mention, Trevor Story is not on the team, who is one of their best bats in this lineup against lefties. I’m not looking to get cute here, it’s Ryu all day for me.
As for Lambert, we haven’t seen much of him as he’s only logged 15 innings since being called up. We have a lot of left-handed power bats that shy me away from taking a chance with him despite being so cheap. For what it’s worth, he does have some decent strikeout upside and is averaging a strikeout an inning since being called up. No matter how you look at it, on DraftKings, you’re going to have to get creative somewhere at your SP2.
Hitter Breakdown: It’s rather difficult to take a serious look at any of the Rockies bats when you see that Ryu has an overall .196 wOBA and a 2.36 xFIP at Dodger Stadium. I suppose you can always take a shot in GPPs with Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado but I honestly don’t see the point.
For the Dodgers, the left-handed power bats are where I’ll be looking. Max Muncy is my favorite hitter to target in this game for the Dodgers, followed closely by Cody Bellinger; if you can afford him. I do like that Muncy has been hitting extremely well lately, cracking four home runs and knocking in eight over his last 10 games. Alex Verdugo is a nice salary saver and does have three doubles and a home run over his last 10 games as well.
Chicago White Sox (4.6) @ Texas Rangers (6)
Odrisamer Despaigne (RHP) vs. Lance Lynn (RHP)
Over/Under: 10.5 Moneyline: Rangers -170
Pitcher Breakdown: If the weather holds up here, I do like this spot for Lynn. Despite the high run total, Lynn has continued to surprise and even has been holding lefties at bay, a matchup we’d usually target against him with. At home, Lynn has an impressive .308 wOBA with a 3.82 xFIP. Lefties have also been held to a .328 wOBA and a 4.58 xFIP. With how this slate is laid out, Lynn is almost forced to be an option.
As for Despaigne, I have zero interest in him. The Rangers have a run total of 6.5 as I write this early Saturday afternoon. This will be his first start on the road, as he’s made two starts in Chicago. In those, he’s quickly allowed 10 runs on 16 hits through 10.2 innings.
Hitter Breakdown: With Lynn likely being an SP1/SP2, I’m not really looking toward the White Sox bats. If you want to consider someone like Jose Abreu, I’d be ok with that. For what it’s worth, the Rangers bullpen is nothing special so if you’re hoping to maybe get some exposure, it will certainly be an interesting GPP build.
Despaigne usually doesn’t last very long at the major league level so his numbers are a bit limited. Last season he logged 39 innings and was hit almost equally hard by both sides of the plate. Lefties gave him the most trouble with a .376 wOBA and a 4.57 xFIP. With that in mind, I’m really digging Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara and Ronald Guzman. Like the Braves stack, I think this could really help spread out your exposure and create a very unique build.
San Francisco Giants (4.9) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (5.7)
Tyler Beede (RHP) vs. Zack Godley (RHP)
Over/Under: 10.5 Moneyline: Diamondbacks -135
Pitcher Breakdown: So the only thing I want to talk about here is Godley. Beede is not really an option for me, even after a good start against the Dodgers. When it comes to Godley, he MIGHT be an SP2 option on DK. I don’t really WANT to use him but when you’re looking at the lower priced options, who really is an option? At least Godley will get a soft offense in the Giants. What will make or break my decision is what the Giants run out for a lineup. If they go heavy on lefties, I’m out. If they stick with primarily righties, I’m going to consider using Godley. Lefties have tagged him for a .400 wOBA and a 4.86 xFIP. Against righties, especially at home, he’s been ok. It’s just an option to consider.
Hitter Breakdown: Beede is been poor on the road and at home, it doesn’t really matter. On the road at least, it’s been lefties that have given him the most trouble. With that in mind, I have zero issue with a mix of both bats in a stack. David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar are my two favorite bats to target for the D-Backs. I’m assuming Ketel Marte will sit this game out, so Ildemaro Vargas makes for an interesting salary saver.
As for the Giants, if you’re not using Godley, I wouldn’t hate taking the lefties. Stephen Vogt would be one of my favorite values if he somehow cracks the lineup. He has a surprising .362 wOBA and a .229 ISO on the road against righties. Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt would complete an unappealing but potentially sneaky stack if they all end up starting.
Best Overall Pitcher: Hyun-jin Ryu
Best Value Pitcher: ….maybe Zack Godley…? (so gross)
Best Overall Hitters: Max Muncy, Gary Sanchez, Eduardo Escobar, Freddie Freeman
Best Value Hitters: Stephen Vogt, Rougned Odor, Matt Adams, Robinson Chirinos
Home Run Call of the Day: Gary Sanchez
Stacks: Yankees, Nationals, Braves, Rangers
Bet of the Day: Diamondbacks -135