MLB DFS Breakdown | Nolan Arenado is worth your money

MLB DFS Breakdown | Nolan Arenado is worth your money

In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we discuss the best plays for today’s slate, which includes Nolan Arenado, C.J. Cron and Lucas Giolito.

San Francisco Giants (5.1) @ Baltimore Orioles (5)

Jeff Samardzija (RHP) vs. Gabriel Ynoa (RHP)

Over/Under: 10   Moneyline: Giants -115

Pitcher Breakdown:  When a game between the Giants and Orioles have a game total of 10 runs, you know these pitchers must really stink. Samardzija is on my personal “don’t play list” so that’ll never happen for me. He’s getting rocked on the road to the tune of a .347 wOBA with a 5.82 xFIP. Ynoa has mainly pitched out of the bullpen and has one start under his belt this season. With over five runs projected for the Giants, I don’t see it being necessary to use him. Not to mention, it’s highly unlikely the Orioles would let him go deep into this game.

Hitter Breakdown:  It’s a small sample size, but righties have hit Ynoa the hardest so far. He sports a .379 wOBA with two of the three home runs allowed. Pablo Sandoval somehow remains one of their best road hitters but he’s been slumping as of late. I really like Joe Panik in this game as a salary saver. He doesn’t strikeout much and makes plenty of contact. For the Orioles, Dwight Smith continues to rake at Camden Yards against righties with a .373 wOBA and a .342 ISO. Jonathan Villar and Steve Wilkerson are also on my radar.

Minnesota Twins (4.2) @ Tampa Bay Rays (4.4)

Jake Odorizzi (RHP) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Rays -125

Pitcher Breakdown:  On the surface, it looks as if Odorizzi is having a fantastic season. However, when you dig a bit deeper, some of his advanced numbers say that regression is coming. He sports a SIERA of 4.24 and an xFIP of 5.24 on the road. With that said, I still like him today, at least. Pitching in Tampa certainly has benefits and this Rays team is a lot more dangerous against lefties. Is this a slam dunk spot for Odorizzi? Absolutely not, but I don’t mind using him here. Yarbrough I’m not considering at all. Against lefties, the Twins have a .356 wOBA with a .194 ISO.

Hitter Breakdown:  We have a lot of bats to like here on the Twins. C.J. Cron is almost a lock when it comes to lefties, as he has a .466 wOBA with a .415 ISO in these matchups. After him, Eddie Rosario, Marwin Gonzalez and Byron Buxton are all good options for this matchup. If you’re thinking Odorizzi is going to falter, lefties would be the way to go after him. Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, and Kevin Kiermaier would be who I’m looking at.

Washington Nationals (4.6) @ Cincinnati Reds (4)

Max Scherzer (RHP) vs. Sonny Gray (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Nationals -135

Pitcher Breakdown:  So here’s my problem with Scherzer. He hasn’t necessarily been bad but he’s not dominating either to justify the high salary. For today, I’m not really sure I want to pay a premium for him in one of the best ballparks for hitters. Sure, it’s the Reds and they’re far from offensive juggernauts but that’s just how I’m thinking. For what it’s worth, the Reds have a .331 wOBA with a .211 ISO against righties at home. Gray is a bit more interesting because his advanced numbers show he’s been good at home. The Nationals aren’t strong against righties and sport a .305 wOBA with a .166 ISO and a 24.2 K%. Same hitter-friendly ballpark but I feel better about Gray than I do Scherzer. Wow, what a sentence that was.

Hitter Breakdown:  Lefties continue to give Scherzer the most trouble and we have a few bats we can focus on here. The most obvious is Derek Dietrich who has turned into a 30-HR type player. His numbers at home against righties are ridiculous and he has a .497 wOBA with a .614 ISO. Insane. Jesse Winker, Joey Votto and Tucker Barnhart are all on my list today if you want to be a bit different. Righties have hit Gray the hardest at home but I’m not crazy about many of these Nats bats. Honestly, I feel like it’s Juan Soto (lefty) and Anthony Rendon for me. I’m not messing too much with the Nats here.

Detroit Tigers (4) @ Atlanta Braves (5.1)

Matt Boyd (LHP) vs. Julio Teheran (RHP)

Over/Under: 9   Moneyline: Braves -166

Pitcher Breakdown:  As seen from our Line Movement Tool the outlook for Boyd against the Braves doesn’t look good. It’s a bit surprising seeing as he’s pitched very well this season. With that said, the Braves have been one of the best against lefties with a .346 wOBA and a .217 ISO. I think Boyd is nothing more than a GPP option. Teheran hasn’t been terrible lately! Lefties still have his number but even that hasn’t been as bad as we’ve seen in the past. Luckily for him, he doesn’t have to deal with many in this matchup so I’m digging him today.

Hitter Breakdown:  Teheran WILL have to face Niko Goodrum who is suddenly on fire. On the road against righties, he has a .366 wOBA with a .250 ISO with four of his six home runs. I like him a lot and his salary hasn’t caught up to his play as of late. Christian Stewart is another lefty to consider but he’s a salary saver and not someone to count on for consistent production. Freddie Freeman has arguably been the best hitter against lefties for the Braves and he’s very much in play today. Ozzie Albies has been much stronger against lefties and I like him a lot especially since he usually gets a bump in the lineup in these matchups. Don’t sleep on Dansby Swanson either, his numbers would surprise you.

Milwaukee Brewers (4.7) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (4.4)

Zach Davies (RHP) vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP)

Over/Under: 9   Moneyline: Brewers -125

Pitcher Breakdown:  This feels like a matchup of two pitchers who are pitching over their heads right now. Hence, the high totals despite good numbers from both sides. Davies has done well at preventing offense but his strikeout upside is extremely limited. He’s not the worst cheap pitching option you could choose but you can’t expect much. Lyles has a 4.15 SIERA so I’m just waiting for the big fall from grace. Against a team that has a run total of five, not looking to use him as n option.

Hitter Breakdown:  Lefties on the road have tagged Davies with a 6.11 xFIP. That at least got my attention so I’ll be taking a look at, of course, Josh Bell. I don’t have to tell you that though. A .459 wOBA and .459 ISO at home against righties just isn’t fair (but good for us!). Gregory Polanco and Colin Moran are in play here today and I doubt either will carry high ownership. Lefties are the way to attack Lyles so we have a few guys to choose from here. That guy Christian Yelich isn’t bad either, not sure if you’ve heard of him.

Cleveland Indians (4) @ Chicago White Sox (4.1)

Zach Plesac (RHP) vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP)

Over/Under: 8   Moneyline: White Sox -118

Pitcher Breakdown: I have something to admit to you all and I really hope you won’t think less of me. I haven’t been following Giolito closely and I was shocked to see how expensive he was today. When I looked at his numbers I was shocked! What’s happening here!? It’s quite the change from 2018. With that said, he has seen some struggles at home but only has a .287 wOBA and a 3.87 xFIP here. With that in mind, the Indians are nothing special offensively and I have no issue taking Giolito here. Plesac I don’t have any interest in. The White Sox are mashing right now and Plesac doesn’t have much in his arsenal to hold them at bay.

Hitter Breakdown:  Just like with pitching, I only have interest in the White Sox here. I think they’re a stack worthy team today and will be doing so myself. Jose Abreu, Eloy Jiminez and Leury Garcia would be the way I would stack them up. The White Sox team total has dropped a bit down to 4.1 as I write this but I still think they’re in a great position. Over the last five games, the White Sox have averaged 5.8 runs per game.

Chicago Cubs (4.6) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4.5)

Cole Hamels (LHP) vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP)

Over/Under: 9   Moneyline: Cardinals -105

Pitcher Breakdown:  Hamels has been hit hard lately and hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in his last three starts. In that span, he’s allowed 11 runs on 23 hits with an 11:9 K:BB ratio. Going against a Cardinals team that smashes lefties, I anticipate this will be another long (short) day for Hamels. The Cards have a .342 wOBA and a .207 ISO against lefties. As for Wainwright, I don’t understand his resurgence. He’s thrown some damn good games mixed in with some really bad ones. His best baseball has come at home where he sports a .329 wOBA and a 3.79 xFIP. I’m still not convinced with him but I wouldn’t knock you for taking him.

Hitter Breakdown:   This Cardinals lineup has A LOT of power against lefties and is a fantastic stacking option. Paul DeJong, Harrison Bader and Jose Martinez are who you want to focus on here. I would go on to say this MIGHT be my favorite mini-stack of this slate. If you want to take it a bit further, Marcell Ozuna and Paul Goldschmidt can also be mixed in. As for the Cubs, I’d focus on the lefties if you want to go against Wainwright. Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber would be the first two options I’d consider. Jason Heyward is also a consideration but I’m not going out of my way for him.

Kansas City Royals (5.3) @ Texas Rangers (5.8)

Brad Keller (RHP) vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP)

Over/Under: 11   Moneyline: Rangers -130

Pitcher Breakdown:  Who needs Coors Field when you have a massive run total in Texas!? In a game like this, I could not imagine what the appeal would be for starting pitchers here. Both teams have shaky bullpens and you can use our Bullpen Factor tool to see exactly how much they’ve been used as of late. Long story short, pitchers in this game – nah.

Hitter Breakdown:  Sampson hasn’t been terrible lately if we’re being totally honest but he’s faced a struggling Mariners team in two of his last three starts. His splits also show how poorly he’s performed against righties, which this Royals lineup is full of. Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler would be my two favorite options in this game to target from the Royals. I wouldn’t shy away from the lefties though as I can’t imagine Sampson will be in this game long. He hasn’t seen the sixth inning once this season and has a poor bullpen behind him.

Keller has been much worse on the road, where he is today. Sure, Joey Gallo is now injured but that doesn’t take away from how much power remains. Shin-Soo ChooHunter Pence, Ronald Guzman and Asdrubal Cabrera all have an ISO of at least .250 against righties. Game stacking would be a smart idea in this game if you can.

Toronto Blue Jays (5.9) @ Colorado Rockies (6.8)

Aaron Sanchez (RHP) vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP)

Over/Under: 12.5   Moneyline: Rockies -134

Pitcher Breakdown:  The Blue Jays offense is so bad they only managed two runs on four hits against Jon freaking Gray and the Rockies bullpen last night. So one would think that MAYBE Senzatela is in play? I’m not doing it but if you’re a hero like that, you do you. Senzatela has been bad, bad, bad and has a .351 wOBA with a 4.36 xFIP at Coors.

Hitter Breakdown:  I think you all have a good idea of who to take here if you want to go this route. As long as Aaron Sanchez doesn’t form his 18434 finger blister of his career, he’s expected to take the mound. Righties are smashing him this season so we have so many options to choose from. Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Brendan Rodgers, the entire Rockies lineup? Truly, don’t think you can go wrong here. If you’re brave enough to consider the Blue Jays, Vlad Guerrero Jr is still too cheap despite being at Coors, Eric Sogard and Freddy Galvis would be who I’m considering.

Best Overall Pitcher: Lucas Giolito

Best Value Pitcher: Julio Teheran

Best Overall Hitters: Trevor Story, Paul DeJong, Derek Dietrich, Dwight Smith Jr, Jose Abreu

Best Value Hitters: C.J. Cron, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Harrison Bader, Colin Moran

Home Run Call of the Day: C.J. Cron

Stacks: MIN, COL, TEX, STL

Bet of the Day: Cardinals -104