MLB DFS Breakdown – Stackin’ A’s – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Breakdown – Stackin’ A’s – The Quant Edge

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we tackle underrated and cheap GPP stacks to consider, so you can spend up on pitching.

Milwaukee Brewers (5.3) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (5.3)

Zach Davies (RHP) @ Steven Brault (LHP)

Over/Under: 10.5 Moneyline: PIT -105

Pitcher Breakdown: Zach Davies enters with an 83 percent contact rate and this will be the fourth time he’s faced Pittsburgh this season. He’s allowed 21 hits in 18.1 innings against them.

Steven Brault gets the Brewers for the third time in a month and he was decent in his first two outings against them. He fanned 10 over 11 innings, and only allowed three runs. I’m not buying it, though, as he checks in with a 40 HH% and 38 FB%. He’s also walked at least three batters in four of his past five starts.

Batter Breakdown: Not a lot of RHB to target on the Brewers, but they have a .295 average and .364 wOBA vs Brault. Keston Hiura is on my radar and Jesus Aguilar if you can believe it. It feels like he hasn’t played in about a month, but it’s a cheap GPP punt play. Lorenzo Cain is atop the order again.

Davies has allowed seven bombs to lefties and they are hitting .290 against him with a .360 wOBA. Josh Bell is hitting .320, with a .431 wOBA (fourth-best) and .170 wRC+ (fifth-best) against RHP. He has 19 homers, 27 doubles (league-high) and 64 RBI (league-high) vs righties. Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson and Colin Moran are worth your attention in tournaments as well.

Kansas City Royals (4.4) @ Washington Nationals (6.3)

Brad Keller (RHP) @ Austin Voth (RHP)

Over/Under: 10.5  Moneyline: WSH -198

Pitcher Breakdown: Brad Keller has a 75:50 K:BB with a 5.09 xFIP, so he’s a clear pass. He does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground, but he’s been rocked on the road: 5.08 ERA, 6 HR, .281 AVG and .342 wOBA.

Austin Voth has a 43 FB% for his career, which has led to five homers over 22.2 innings. He’s allowed 22 hits and 14 runs over that span.

Batter Breakdown: There’s some standalone appeal with Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier as they both have HR potential.

Adam Eaton, Brian Dozier, Ryan Zimmerman and Gerardo Parra are all pretty cheap considering WSH has a 6.2 team implied total. Anthony Rendon is always in play. This is a stack you can afford tonight.

Baltimore Orioles (4.9) @ Toronto Blue Jays (5.7)

Dylan Bundy (RHP) @ Aaron Sanchez (RHP)

Over/Under: 10.5  Moneyline: TOR -139

Pitcher Breakdown: Dylan Bundy‘s career 45 FB% rate has resulted in 60 homers in his past two seasons. He’s given up 19 over 84.1 innings this season, but he’s struck out 90 and the Blue Jays love strikeouts. I think you can afford to have a Bundy GPP share on DraftKings as he may just surprise you, but he’ll probably allow a HR or two. He has allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of his past 13 starts.

Aaron Sanchez enters with a 72:52 K:BB and 6.31 ERA over 87 innings. Right-handed batters and left-handed batters have crushed him all season, but it’s the walks that get him. He’s issued at least two free passes in all 18 starts, and at least three in five of his past six outings.

Batter Breakdown: The Orioles and Jays have plenty of intriguing GPP punt plays, especially on FanDuel where the price tags are cheap. Now’s the time for Jonathan Villar and Trey Mancini, but also Dwight Smith Jr. and Chris Davis.

There’s definitely risk in the Bundy pick and you’d be silly not to think Jays in tournaments as they enter with the third-highest fly ball rate as a team. Left-handed batters have had the better average against Bundy over the last two seasons, but it’s the right-handed hitters who have smashed the majority of the homers against him. Think Vladimir Guerrero and Cavan Biggio. Biggio has a team-high 61 FB% vs RHP. Justin Smoak and Teoscar Hernandez all check out very well. Hernandez is basically free if you’re looking for a four-man TOR stack.

New York Yankees (4.4) @ Tampa Bay Rays (4.2)

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP) @ Brendan McKay (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5  Moneyline: TB -105

Pitcher Breakdown: Masahiro Tanaka has been very inconsistent and enters with a 7.75 K/9, which is underwhelming. When you look deeper into this matchup, though, you’ll see that he has only allowed one run on 10 hits over 22 innings against TB this season. He tossed a complete game shutout against them on June 17th, in which he only allowed two hits and stuck out 10. It’s certainly something to think about.

Brendan McKay is also someone to think about, and I like him slightly less after digging into Tanaka, but nonetheless, he’s a solid GPP option. McKay only had three strikeouts in his first start, but he only allowed one hit and one walk over six innings against Texas. The Yankees have the eight-highest K-Rate vs LHP. They also rank in the bottom 10 in average, wOBA and wRC+ vs southpaws. McKay is also really good as he racked up 88 strikeouts to 15 walks over his 66.2 minor league innings before the call-up.

Batter Breakdown: I think I’m shying away from both offenses here and I’ll take some shots with the arms. This is one of the lowest total games on the slate. If you are taking shots: Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius and Austin Meadows. Nate Lowe is free on FD.

Boston Red Sox (6.7) @ Detroit Tigers (4.4)

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) @ Gregory Soto (LHP)

Over/Under: 11 Moneyline: DET +210

Pitcher Breakdown: Eduardo Rodriguez is absolutely in play and I may even roster him in cash. Usually, I won’t touch him in smaller contests, but I think you can count on the return on investment, strikeout upside and potential win. The Red Sox are huge favorites here against Gregory Soto and the Tigers. Detroit’s tied with San Diego when it comes to K% and E-Rod took advantage of them earlier in the year: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER and 7 K.

Batter Breakdown: This Boston total is very high and you should be looking to find ways to get them in your lineup. J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are the two I would spend up for, but you can’t go wrong with Rafael Devers and Mookie Betts. J.D. has 17 HR with a .377 AVG and .508 wOBA vs LHP. Xander has 15 bombs and a .400 wOBA. Michael Chavis is worthy and will save you some cash, as will Eduardo Nunez.

Philadelphia Phillies (3.5) @ New York Mets (5.1)

Vince Velasquez (RHP) @ Jacob deGrom (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: NYM -200

Pitcher Breakdown: Vince Velasquez has strikeout upside, but he allows too many walks and homers. He has a 47 FB% and 45 HH%, plus he’s rocking a 4.04 BB/9 and 18.8 HR/FB%. He’s allowed 12 homers over 51.1 innings, and nine in his nine starts.

Jacob deGrom is certainly worth your money tonight and the matchup is actually pretty decent. deGrom has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his past eight starts, and he has at least 7K  in six straight outings.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed hitters have eight homers, a .512 SLG and .353 wOBA vs Velasquez. They also have a 52 HH% and 54 FB% compared to a 35 HH% and 35 FB% from lefties. Peter Alonso anybody? Also, Todd Frazier.

Miami Marlins (4.2) @ Atlanta Braves (5.9)

Jordan Yamamoto (RHP) @ Julio Teheran (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: ATL -200

Pitcher Breakdown: Jordan Yamamoto has only allowed 10 hits over his first four MLB starts (23 IP), but he’s issued 12 walks. The strikeout upside is there as he has 23 in as many innings, but the command along with the 49 FB% and 43 HH% are concerning. He’s nothing more than a contrarian GPP option, but I think there are better spots to take that strategy.

Like Julio Teheran for example. If you’re looking to be contrarian, roster Teheran, who has the better matchup and is much cheaper. His Braves are heavy home favorites and Teheran has two solid outings against the Marlins already this season. He’s yet to allow a run in his 12 innings against them and he’s only allowed four hits.

Batter Breakdown: I sound like a broken record here, but Josh Donaldson and Nick Markakis are very cheap on FanDuel. In fact, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are cheaper than they should be too. Albies is up in the two-spot tonight.

Texas Rangers (4.2) @ Minnesota Twins (5.9)

Adrian Sampson (RHP) @ Martin Perez (LHP)

Over/Under: 10  Moneyline: MIN -172

Pitcher Breakdown: I’m not buying into Adrian Sampson and I think we can attack him. Martin Perez isn’t someone I’m buying either, but the Rangers do have the highest strikeout rate in baseball vs LHP. There are just so many LHB in their lineup that they tend to struggle vs southpaws. It doesn’t make me want to roster Perez, but it makes me lean MIN on the money line.

Batter Breakdown: Perez has yet to allow a home run to a left-handed bat, so I’m fading this TEX lineup.

RHB have a .301/.344/.536 and .366 wOBA vs Sampson. Eleven of the 15 homers he’s allowed have been against righties, and he enters with a 6.47 ERA on the road. Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver and C.J. Cron are on my radar. Cron is much better vs LHP, but I still like the spot and the price on FanDuel. Marwin Gonzalez is basically free on both sites, and Jonathan Schoop is worth your attention in tournaments.

Los Angeles Angels (3.6) @ Houston Astros (5.6)

Noe Ramirez (RHP) @ Justin Verlander (RHP)

Over/Under: 9  Moneyline: HOU -230

Pitcher Breakdown: Felix Pena will enter this game for the Halos and he’ll check in with a 40 HH% and 38 FB%. He’s allowed 14 home runs over 70.1 innings, and he’s given up six in his past 18.2 innings (four outings).

Justin Verlander allowed eight runs and he struck out 55 batters in his six starts against the Angels last season. I know Los Angeles doesn’t strike out often, but they can’t hit Verlander as they only have 26 hits in 39 innings against him in 2018. They were not a big strikeout team last season either. Verlander is a lock in cash and an option in tournaments with some of the value and underrated stacks below.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed bats have a .531 SLG, .370 wOBA, 47 GB% and eight homers against Pena. Right-handed bats only have a 28 FB% against him. That should make you feel really good about Yordan Alvarez. Michael Brantley and Jose Altuve are underpriced on both sites, and Alex Bregman has just crushed RHP all season long: .394 wOBA and 19 HR.

Colorado Rockies (3.9) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (5.2)

Antonio Senzatela (RHP) @ Zack Greinke (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: ARI -185

Pitcher Breakdown: Zack Greinke is the only pitcher to consider in this matchup, and I’m going to fade him. This will be the fourth time he’s faced the Rockies and they finally got to him on June 19th in Arizona: 11 hits and five runs over seven innings. That’s 21 hits and nine runs with only 12 strikeouts in 19 innings vs COL.

Batter Breakdown: The COL bats are very pricey and should be considered contrarian, especially on DraftKings. David Dahl and Daniel Murphy are underpriced on FanDuel.

Senzatela has an 87 contact percentage and he’s almost walked more batters than he’s struck out (47:39 in 82 IP). He’s issued 12 free passes in his last four starts. Left-handed hitters have seven homers and a .323/.409/.525 line against him. David Peralta is $3.4K on FanDuel.

San Diego Padres (3.5) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (5.1)

Eric Lauer (LHP) @ Clayton Kershaw (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5  Moneyline: LAD -200

Pitcher Breakdown: Clayton Kershaw may be a bit of a trap too, but I understand using him on the late slate as a win is very likely. Kershaw has a great matchup against the highest strikeout team in the majors, but he only has 82 punch-outs over 92 innings. He’s had two starts vs SD (13 IP) and he’s given up 11 hits, six runs and four homers with just 11 K. It’s enough reason to shy away in cash.

Batter Breakdown: The ultra contrarian bats in this matchup are Manny Machado and Hunter Renfroe. Both hit lefties well and Manny has two bombs vs Clayton this season.

Righties Justin Turner and Chris Taylor are decent value plays against Eric Lauer, who has an 85 percent contact rate. Eight of the nine homers Lauer has allowed have come via RHB.

Oakland Athletics (5.6) @ Seattle Mariners (4.6)

Brett Anderson (LHP) @ Yuesi Kikuchi (LHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: SEA +135

Pitcher Breakdown: Brett Anderson will limit the damage vs all those Seattle bats, but there’s no strikeout upside. Let’s just spend our money on OAK bats vs Yuesi Kikuchi. He comes in with an 81 percent contact rate and he’s coughed up 18 homers this season. He’s also rocking a poor 68:32 K:BB over 91.1 innings.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed hitters have 14 bombs and a .290/.357/.498 with a .360 wOBA vs Kikuchi. Khris Davis (still stupid cheap) and Matt Chapman have seven homers each vs LHP. Don’t let the lefty-lefty matchup fool you, as Matt Olson has six bombs and a .281 average against southpaws. Olson has a team-high .402 wOBA and 53 FB% vs LHP. The A’s team total has climbed all day long.

St. Louis Cardinals (4.2) @ San Francisco Giants (4.4)

Dakota Hudson (RHP) @ Drew Pomeranz (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: SF -115

Pitcher Breakdown: Both Dakota Hudson and Drew Pomeranz have been solid of late, so I feel like the under is certainly in play. Hudson has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts, but he only has 62 strikeouts over 87.1 innings.

Pomeranz has 77 strikeouts over 63.1 innings and he’s allowed two or zero runs in four of his past five outings. That’s where I’d lean with Pomeranz as he enters with a 3.53 ERA at home, compared to a 9.76 mark on the road. Hudson is just too expensive to roster.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed batters have 12 homers and are hitting .300 with a .400 wOBA vs Pomeranz. So if you’re looking to take some shots there are plenty of cheap ones to consider in tournaments: Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Martinez and Tyler O’Neill. Martinez leads the team with four homers, .362 average and .452 wOBA vs LHP.

Evan Longoria has 4 homers, 10 RBI and 9 runs his last three games. The Giants have scored 40 runs during their four-game win streak and they’ve had a 3.5 team implied total in all four games. They seem to be feeling it right now, but I’d only roster Longoria and Brandon Belt.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitchers: Justin Verlander & Jacob deGrom

Best Value Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez & Julio Teheran

Pitchers I’m feeling: Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Eduardo Rodriguez, Julio Teheran & Masahiro Tanaka

Contrarian GPP options: Brendan McKay & Dylan Bundy

Pitchers to fade: Zack Greinke & Clayton Kershaw

Pitchers to pick on: Brad Keller, Gregory Soto, Adrian Sampson, Felix Pena, Antonio Senzatela, Eric Lauer & Yusei Kikuchi

Top Overall Hitters: Josh Bell, Anthony Rendon, Aaron Judge, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Peter Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Nelson Cruz, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson & Khris Davis

Best value Hitters (DK): Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Zimmerman, Brian Dozier, Gerardo Parra, Chris Davis, Vladimir Guerrero, Justin Smoak, Nate Lowe, Eduardo Nunez, Josh Donaldson, Marwin Gonzalez, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Justin Turner, Khris Davis, Jose Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt & Brandon Belt

Best value Hitters (FD): Keston Hiura, Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson, Adam Frazier, Jorge Soler, Adam Eaton, Ryan Zimmerman, Brian Dozier, Gerardo Parra, Jonathan Villar, Chris Davis, Vladimir Guerrero, Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez, Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Nate Lowe, Michael Chavis, Eduardo Nunez, Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies, Mitch Garver, Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, David Dahl, Daniel Murphy, Christian Walker, Hunter Renfroe, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Jose Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill & Brandon Belt

Home Run Call of the Day: Yordan Alvarez

Others HR calls to consider: Keston Hiura, Cavan Biggio, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Peter Alonso, Todd Frazier, Freddie Freeman, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Mike Trout, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Matt Olson & Jose Martinez

Stack ranks: BOS, HOU, OAK, MIN, WSH, ATL, MIL & LAD

Underrated stack: TOR, PIT, ARI, NYM & BAL

Best bet: OAK -156

Best Bets