MLB DFS Breakdown – Padres is cash – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Breakdown – Padres is cash – The Quant Edge

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we target value so we can get as many Padres in our lineup as possible.

Chicago Cubs (5) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (4.6)

Adbert Alzolay (RHP) @ Trevor Williams (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: PIT +105

Pitcher Breakdown: Adbert Alzolay is certainly in play on this small slate and the price is decent. Alzolay walked four in his first MLB start, but he held the Braves to one hit and one run. It was a solo shot to Ronald Acuna Jr. to start the game, but he settled down with four strikeouts and looked sharp at times. He has nine punch-outs in 8.2 innings, but the Pirates don’t strikeout a ton. Even still, there’s a chance at a W here. Rostering Alzolay will allow you to get some big bats in.

Trevor Williams has only walked 10 batters in 11 starts, but he only has 53 strikeouts in 65.2 innings, so he isn’t an option. He’s given up at least four runs in four of his past six outings, and he’s surrendered five bombs in his past three starts. Richards surprisingly has a 6.00 ERA at home compared to a 3.24 mark on the road.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed bats have six of the eight homers Richards has allowed, but lefties have better numbers overall: .294/.336/.431 and .327 wOBA. Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez are two I’d roster against Williams, especially on FanDuel where Baez checks in at $3.9K. Kyle Schwarber has value atop the lineup too, on both sites.

Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds have been decent values all season long on FanDuel.

Baltimore Orioles (3.4) @ Tampa Bay Rays (5.7)

Tom Eshelman (RHP) @ Ryne Stanek (RHP)

Over/Under: 9  Moneyline: TB -270

Pitcher Breakdown: Tom Eshelman is slated to make his first MLB start, so dial up the Rays as they check in with one of the better team totals. Eshelman has a 34:11 K:BB over 46 Triple-A innings. He’s allowed 18 runs on 41 hits over that span, including seven homers.

Ryan Yarbrough will take over for Ryne Stanek and he comes in having allowed one run in his past 12 innings. It doesn’t make me interested in him, though.

Batter Breakdown: Austin Meadows has had a brutal June, but the calendar has flipped to July and it’s likely most are off Meadows. Keep in mind he has a .297 average, 10 homers and a .384 wOBA vs RHP. He’s leading off for TB tonight. The Rays make for a strong stack and you can read more about them in our batter breakdown.

Milwaukee Brewers (5) @ Cincinnati Reds (5.1)

Adrian Houser (RHP) @ Tyler Mahle (RHP)

Over/Under: 10  Moneyline: CIN -110

Pitcher Breakdown: Adrian Houser only lasted two innings in his third MLB start of the season last week. He allowed three runs on four hits with three walks against Seattle, but he did have four strikeouts. He enters with 40 over 33.2 innings, so that’s appealing, but there’s no telling how deep he’ll be able to go. I may have a share in a tournament because of the strikeout upside.

Tyler Mahle has an impressive 84:20 K:BB over 82.2 innings and enters with a 2.96 ERA at home, compared to a 5.04 mark on the road. I don’t think many will be on Mahle, even with the small slate, but he has sneaky appeal in tournaments. There’s obviously a lot of risk in this pick, but MIL ranks in the top 10 in strikeouts, and bottom 10 in wOBA/wRC+ over the last two weeks. It’s a GPP play only and it’s not for everyone.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed batters have 11 homers and a .372 wOBA vs Mahle, so I wouldn’t go all in on the Reds pitcher. In fact, you should probably have some exposure to Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames in cash. Keston Hiura is only $2.7K on FanDuel.

I like the price of Scooter Gennett, and I like that he’s hitting in the cleanup spot for the Reds.

San Francisco Giants (3.8) @ San Diego Padres (4.9)

Jeff Samardzija (RHP) @ Logan Allen (LHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: SD -165

Pitcher Breakdown: Jeff Samardzija checks in with a 5.18 ERA on the road and he’s allowed nine of his 14 homers away from SF. He has a 43 FB% and 41 HH%, which has led to 21 hits and 14 runs in his past three outings.

Logan Allen is certainly in play as he’s been pretty impressive in his two starts. Allen has only allowed two runs over his first 13 innings, and he has 10 strikeouts. Maybe most impressive is his 56 GB%, even with a small sample size. The Giants don’t strikeout a ton, but they don’t have a lot of fire power in their lineup.

Batter Breakdown: Lefties are rocking a .331 wOBA vs Samardzija, so Eric Hosmer may be a sneaky play, but it’s hard to ignore Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Franmil Reyes leads the league in homers vs RHP with 22.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Logan Allen

Best Value Pitcher: Adbert Alzolay & Adrian Houser

Pitchers I’m feeling: Adbert Alzolay, Logan Allen & Adrian Houser

Contrarian GPP options: Tyler Mahle

Pitchers to pick on: Jeff Samardzija

Top Overall Hitters: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Christian Yelich, Fernando Tatis Jr. & Manny Machado

Best value Hitters (DK): Kyle Schwarber, Ji-Man Choi, Keston Hiura, Scooter Gennett, Delino DeShields & Asdrubal Cabrera

Best value Hitters (FD): Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Jonathan Villar, Brandon Lowe, Eric Thames, Keston Hiura & Franmil Reyes

Home Run Call of the Day: Franmil Reyes

Others HR calls to consider: Anthony Rizzo, Austin Meadows, Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames, Scooter Gennett & Manny Machado

Stack ranks: TB, MIL & CHC

Underrated stack: SD & CIN

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