MLB DFS Breakdown | Pay up for Gary Sanchez

MLB DFS Breakdown | Pay up for Gary Sanchez

In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we discuss the best plays for today’s slate, which includes Gary Sanchez, Rafael Devers and Ketel Marte.

Boston Red Sox (4.7) @ New York Yankees (4.9)

Rick Porcello (RHP) vs. Domingo German (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5   Moneyline: Yankees -113

Pitcher Breakdown:  This Yankee lineup may not look intimidating but I’m not touching Porcello. He’s been flat out bad on the road and enters this game with a .383 wOBA and a 4.83 xFIP with seven of his 10 home runs allowed. Targeting the Yankees bats would be ideal. I’m not crazy about German either. I know his numbers look great but go tell me he hasn’t had a cupcake schedule this season. At home, German has a .313 wOBA with a 3.69 xFIP. Good numbers, but we’ll get burned by German sooner rather than later.

Hitter Breakdown:  Rafael Devers is my favorite play on the Red Sox and someone I’ll be locking into my lineups. German has allowed five of his nine home runs and a 38.1% hard-hit rate to lefties. Andrew Benintendi would be another option if you want to stick with the lefty narrative. As for the Yankees, I think they’re one of the best stacks on this slate. Both sides of the plate have hit him hard and if you wanted to take a traditional 1-5 stack, I’d say go for it. Against righties at home, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner and Gleyber Torres have shown the best power in these matchups this season.

Chicago Cubs (4.2) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4.4)

Jose Quintana (LHP) vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Cardinals -114

Pitcher Breakdown:  Quintana is way too inconsistent for my liking. The Cardinals are one of the better hitting teams against lefties and sport a team .334 wOBA with a .190 ISO. They also have one of the lowest K% in the league against lefties at 19.8%, which caps the upside of Quintana. Flaherty is one of my favorite pitchers on this slate overall. He’s been fantastic at home and boasts a .237 wOBA and a 3.44 xFIP. He’s been particularly strong against lefties, which is vital against the Cubs. I wouldn’t be afraid to use him here.

Hitter Breakdown:  Righties have smashed Quintana on the road to the tune of a .383 wOBA and a 4.46 xFIP. I wouldn’t hate a right-handed stack of the Cardinals in this spot, especially with the shaky Cubs bullpen behind Quintana. Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez and Harrison Bader are my three guys to focus on when making your Cardinals build. As for the Cubs, I’m not really crazy about anyone here since I like Flaherty so much. Kyle Schwarber continues to hit well in the leadoff spot so that is a consideration. I don’t hate Anthony Rizzo either but I’d rather pay up for other players at first base over him.

Los Angeles Angels (4.9) @ Seattle Mariners (4.8)

Andrew Heaney (LHP) vs. Tommy Milone (LHP)

Over/Under: 9.5   Moneyline: Angels -108

Pitcher Breakdown: I would take a pitcher in this game if I was playing Lowball on DraftKings. In case you don’t know what that is, it was a contest where the lowest scoring fantasy lineup would win. Since Lowball isn’t being offered currently, I’ll easily pass on these options.

Hitter Breakdown:  The Mariners offense has cooled off since they came out of the gates hot but they still can mash lefties. Five batters have an ISO of at least .200 against lefties, topped by Jay Bruce of all people with a .421 ISO. After him, it’s Tim Beckham, Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana and Omar Narvaez. The Angels shouldn’t be forgotten about either, as I still believe Milone is a total fraud and take his first two starts as total luck shots. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Jonathan Lucroy all deserve serious consideration for your lineups.

Toronto Blue Jays (5) @ Colorado Rockies (6.1)

Marcus Stroman (RHP) vs. Jon Gray (RHP)

Over/Under: 11   Moneyline: Rockies -146

Pitcher Breakdown: Was really hoping the Blue Jays would run Edwin Jackson out again today but they’re not. Stroman hasn’t been bad at all this season and in his limited road starts, have some impressive numbers. We all know that numbers get tossed out the window when you enter Coors, so I won’t be entertaining him on my roster. I’ve toyed with the idea of potentially using Gray in tournaments, as the Blue Jays aren’t anything special. At home, Gray has a .341 wOBA with a 4.61 xFIP. Not great but certainly not the worst numbers we’ve seen here.

Hitter Breakdown:  Trevor Stroy used to be a guy you’d lock in when facing a lefty. Now you lock him in when he plays, period. His numbers against righties at Coors now look like his numbers against lefties at Coors from last year. Entering this game he has a ridiculous .518 wOBA with a .443 ISO and eight of his 15 home runs. Nolan Arenado, Ramiel Tapia, and Tony Wolters are all in play. On the Jays, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is just too cheap to ignore, especially batting so high in the lineup. Justin Smoak and Randal Grichuk will be the other bats I’m focusing on a lot.

Houston Astros (4.2) @ Oakland Athletics (3.4)

Justin Verlander (RHP) vs. Brett Anderson (LHP)

Over/Under: 7.5   Moneyline: Astros -152

Pitcher Breakdown: I imagine Verlander is going to be the most popular pitching option. Overall, I think the selection of pitchers is weak, so he’ll draw plenty of attention by default. He deserves it either way, as he’s allowed a run or less in seven of his last 10 starts. Verlander has also been fantastic on the road with a .259 wOBA and a 3.54 xFIP. Anderson will be taking the hill for the A’s that’s cool. Hope he has a good day.

Hitter Breakdown: No way around it, the Astros lineup is banged up right now. They lose a good amount of power with the guys that are on the shelves but still have some good options to use here. Robinson Chirinos, Jake Marisnick, Josh Reddick and Yuli Gurriel all have good numbers against lefties. Gurriel has been batting cleanup and is so cheap on DraftKings that I feel like you can’t ignore him. The A’s aren’t that appealing going against Verlander but he has had issues with home runs. Allowing 13 on the year, I’d have no problem using any of their power bats in tournaments. Matt Chapman, Matt Olson or Mark Canha would be my options.

New York Mets (3.5) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (3.6)

Jacob deGrom (RHP) vs. Zack Greinke (RHP)

Over/Under: 7   Moneyline: Diamondbacks -112

Pitcher Breakdown: As you can see by the low run total, this is going to be a game to focus on the pitching options, right? Well, kind of. I have no issue with taking Greinke tonight and I think he’s in a great spot. At home, he boasts a .225 wOBA with a 3.10 xFIP with just two of his 10 home runs allowed. That’s good, we like that. What I’m not a big fan of is deGrom. He hasn’t been his dominant self and is going to be facing some really good lefties in this lineup. Against lefties, deGrom has a .341 wOBA with a 4.60 xFIP with four of his nine home runs allowed. I’m not taking the chance with him.

Hitter Breakdown:  All I’ll be taking in this game is the Diamondbacks lefties. So that includes Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Jarrod Dyson and potentially Ildemaro Vargas. I think you’ll get them at low ownership and this is a group of players that have been mashing the ball (with the exception of Dyson but he can swipe a bag). I think this will really differentiate you from the field and if they go off, you should be sitting pretty.

Philadelphia Phillies (3.4) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (4.7)

Cole Irvin (LHP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP)

Over/Under: 8   Moneyline: Dodgers -185

Pitcher Breakdown: This game has a total of eight runs but don’t let it fool you, it’s weighted heavily toward the Dodgers, as seen in our Line Movement ToolIrvin has only pitched 17 2/3 innings in the majors so I won’t pretend I’m an expert when it comes to him. What I DO know is that this Dodgers team has too much power against lefties to consider him tonight. As for Kershaw, he’s facing a good hitting club against lefties that doesn’t strikeout much either. The Phillies own a 19.5 K%, which is the ranked third lowest in the league with a .349 wOBA and a .207 ISO. The start taking place at Dodger Stadium softens the blow a bit but I’m not crazy about Kershaw here.

Hitter Breakdown:  Take your pick of who you want from the Dodgers. Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Chris Taylor all have an ISO over .250 against lefties. The only player I’ll be steering away from is Joc Pederson. He’s hit for very little power against lefties and enters this game with just a .048 ISO. Jean Segura is one of my favorite values on this slate as he’s been annihilating lefties to the tune of a .506 wOBA and a .421 ISO. Rhys Hoskins also has a .429 wOBA and a .289 ISO in these matchups as well.

Miami Marlins (3.5) @ San Diego Padres (4.1)

Jose Urena (RHP) vs. Nick Margevicius (LHP)

Over/Under: 7.5   Moneyline: Padres -138

Pitcher Breakdown:  Fairly low total for two average at best pitchers. Sure, the offenses aren’t great here but the Marlins, to their credit, have been hitting a lot better lately. Urena is a decent salary saver and while he doesn’t carry much strikeout upside, did just end the month of May with a .277 wOBA and a 4.70 xFIP through 32 innings. Margevicius I’m looking more to target against than to use against the Marlins. Trust me, they’re still a bad offense but it’s not like he’s been mowing down opposing offenses either.

Hitter Breakdown:  Jorge Alfaro is one of my favorite plays in this game. Against lefties, he sports a .352 wOBA and a .175 ISO. Starlin Castro continues to be near the bottom of the barrel in terms of salary but is someone who is batting cleanup and wouldn’t take much for him to return value. On the Padres side, Eric Hosmer is my favorite play against Urena.

Best Overall Pitcher: Justin Verlander

Best Value Pitcher: Jack Flaherty

Best Overall Hitters: Trevor Story, Paul DeJong, Cody Bellinger, Ketel Marte, Justin Smoak

Best Value Hitters: Jean Segura, Yuli Gurriel, Jorge Alfaro, Jonathan Lucroy, Harrison Bader

Home Run Call of the Day: Rafael Devers

Stacks: Yankees, Diamondbacks (lefties), Cardinals (righties)

Bet of the Day: Rockies -146

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