MLB DFS Breakdown | Mike Trout is on one of those runs

MLB DFS Breakdown | Mike Trout is on one of those runs

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we’re looking at locking in studs like Mike Trout, Khris Davis and Juan Soto.

Cincinnati Reds (4.4) @ Philadephia Phillies (4.7)

Tyler Mahle (RHP) @ Zach Eflin (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: PHI -120

Pitcher Breakdown: Tyler Mahle enters with pretty respectable 67:14 K:BB ratio and a 3.47 xFIP over 61.1 innings. However, he’s rocking a 40 percent hard-hit rate and he’s allowed at least one home run in eight of his past 10 starts. He enters this outing having allowed 13 runs and six homers in his past four starts.

Zach Eflin checks in with a 3.02 ERA, but 4.80 xFIP due to a high strand rate. I don’t want to take anything away from his decent start to the season, but he has a very low K-Rate (6.99 K/9) and his 42 percent fly ball rate has led to 10 homers.

Batter Breakdown: Lefty bats have seven homers against Eflin this season, so I have no problem going back to Joey Votto or Derek Dietrich.

Left-handed bats are slashing .299/.342/.551 with a .373 wOBA vs Mahle, and lefties have seven of the 11 homers against him. They also have a 44 percent hard-hit rate against him, while righties have a 36 percent mark. Bryce Harper and Jay Bruce will put a dent in your budget on DK, but they are both very easy to fit in on FanDuel.

Arizona Diamondbacks (4.1) @ Toronto Blue Jays (4.5)

Merrill Kelly (RHP) @ Marcus Stroman (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: TOR -132

Pitcher Breakdown: Merrill Kelly has been pretty inconsistent this season and he only has 55 strikeouts over his 67.1 innings. He’s coming off his best showing of the season, however, as he struck out 10 Mets and only allowed one run on six hits. He also has an outing against Boston this season where he fanned nine over eight innings, allowing just the one run on four hits. He’s an interesting second arm on DK, because of the salary savings and the matchup vs TOR, but there’s a lot of risk involved. Kelly has a 7.14 ERA on the road compared to a 2.35 ERA at home, and he checks in with a 38 percent hard-hit rate. On the flip side, the Blue Jays have the worst average in baseball.

Marcus Stroman is a much better real life pitcher and he checks in with a 2.84 ERA and 4.09 xFIP. He’s likely due for some regression, but you can’t take away the fact he has a 58 percent ground ball rate and has allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his 13 starts (one or zero in seven starts). He only has eight strikeouts in his last 18 innings and just 59 in 76 innings, which is why he’s a pass.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed bats have a .270 average and .321 wOBA against Stroman this season. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s been more dominate against righties. This isn’t a game where you should stack D-Backs, but David Peralta is one of the better values on FD.

Tampa Bay Rays (4.9) @ Boston Red Sox (5.2)

Yonny Chirinos (RHP) @ Rick Porcello (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: BOS -120

Pitcher Breakdown: Yonny Chirinos is not someone to think about as he only has 49 strikeouts in 61 innings and he’s pitched 5.1 innings or fewer in his last five trips to the hill. He has an 80 percent contact rate and he’s allowed eight homers in his past eight appearances.

Rick Porcello does not have a great K:BB ratio (56:23) and he enters with a 5.18 xFIP. He’s given up 72 hits, 36 runs and 11 homers in 68 innings. The Red Sox’s pitcher has an 84 percent contact rate and 42 percent fly ball rate.

Batter Breakdown: There are three TB players above $5K on DK making them a fade for me. Tommy Pham is a value on FD I can get behind, and the same applies to Avisail Garcia, Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz. If you’re not playing on FanDuel, you’re missing out on a ton of value.

I think for the first time all season, Rafael Devers is at least $4K on FD but only $4.1, so he’s still affordable. He’s hitting third with the injury to J.D. Martinez. Andrew Benintendi remains cheap on FD.

Colorado Rockies (3.1) @ New York Mets (4.5)

Antonio Senzatela (RHP) @ Jacob deGrom (RHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: NYM -205

Pitcher Breakdown: Antonio Senzatela has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his past four outings, but he’s walked 12 batters over that span. He has 23 walks and 33 strikeouts in 54 innings, which tells you all you need to know. Oh, and he has an 85 percent contact rate and 40 percent hard-hit rate.

Jacob deGrom is much cheaper than we are used to seeing him, despite looking more like himself of late. The Mets’ ace has allowed two or fewer runs in three straight starts and six of his last seven outings. He has a very solid 84:19 K:BB ratio over 69.2 innings. That said, he has a 39 percent hard-hit rate and career high 34 percent fly ball rate which has led to nine homers. Nine homers doesn’t seem like a lot, but he allowed 10 over 217 innings last year. I don’t mind taking the discount here, but I’m fading him in cash.

Batter Breakdown: Rostering Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado is a strategy to take in a huge contest only, and even then it’s tough due to their price tags. If you’re someone who likes to go against the public, have some shares.

New York Yankees (4.7) @ Cleveland Indians (4.4)

Domingo German (RHP) @ Zach Plesac (RHP)

Over/Under:Moneyline: CLE +100

Pitcher Breakdown: Domingo German has had a rough go of late as he’s given up 10 runs and five homers in his past two outings (8.2 IP). The homers were going to come eventually due to his 38 percent fly ball mark for his career, plus he checks in with a 37 percent hard-hit rate on the year. German has allowed 10 bombs on the season and the Indians have been much better lately.

Zach Pleasc will make his third start of his career and his first two were pretty solid as he only allowed two runs on eight hits over 12.1 innings vs BOS & CWS. Plesac is someone who has shown great command throughout the minors as he only has 12 walks in his past 91.2 innings. I’m interested in him moving forward, but there’s some risk against NYY. It’s a small sample, but he carries a 40 percent fly ball rate and hard-hit rate into this outing.

Batter Breakdown: Francisco Lindor has really jumped up in terms of pricing on DK, but he’s still doable on the FD side. Jose Ramirez is someone I’m still taking shots with in tournaments. Aaron Hicks went yard yesterday and his price hasn’t changed on FD.

Minnesota Twins (4.8) @ Detroit Tigers (4.3)

Michael Pineda (RHP) @ Matt Boyd (LHP)

Over/Under:Moneyline: DET +110

Pitcher Breakdown: Michael Pineda has been activated from the IL and he’ll make his 12th start of the season. He’s allowed at least three runs in nine straight starts and he only has 50 punch-outs through 59 innings. He’s also allowed 14 home runs (10 in last six starts).

Matt Boyd checks in with a 97:15 K:BB ratio over 77.2 innings. He has a 3.01 ERA and has allowed three or fewer runs in 12 of his 13 starts. He’s yet to allow more than four runs or seven hits in a start, and he has at least 7 K in nine outings. That said, he has a 45 FB% for his career and this will be his first outing against the heavy hitting Twins. Boyd has allowed eight bombs this season and he gave up 27 last year.

Batter Breakdown: All eight of the homers Boyd has allowed have come against right-handed bats, and 19 of the 27 last year were to righties. I have too much respect for their lineup to fade them entirely, no matter who is pitching. Nelson Cruz is cheap on both sites and C.J. Cron has been dominate against lefties this season (.364 AVG & .479 wOBA). Mitch Garver gets a boost due to the fact he’s hitting in the two-hole.

Atlanta Braves (4.4) @ Miami Marlins (3.2)

Mike Soroka (RHP) @ Jose Urena (RHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: MIA +165

Pitcher Breakdown: Mike Soroka carries a 1.41 ERA into his 10th start of the season. The Braves’ pitcher allowed more than one run in his last start for the first time all season, as he gave up three to Detroit. He still came away with his sixth win in nine tries and he’ll likely add to that total tonight. There’s a lot to like about Soroka including his 57 percent ground ball rate, but if there’s one down side, it’s the fact he only has 51 strikeouts in 57.1 innings. The Marlins are hot, but they only managed three hits in seven innings against Soroka earlier this season. Overall, he’s a bit too expensive for me and his strikeout upside isn’t as high as others.

Believe it or not, Jose Urena has allowed three or fewer runs in five straight starts and eight of his last nine. His one outing where he got lit up over that span came against ATL where he allowed five runs, two homers, three walks and six hits over six innings.

Batter Breakdown: As hot as Urena has been, he still allows a lot of contact. Dansby Swanson, Josh Donaldson and Nick Markakis are your value bats in this lineup. I have no problem attacking Urena with Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna. Vegas has lowered the game total to 7.5, but ATL has the bats to end Urena’s streak.

Oakland Athletics (5) @ Texas Rangers (5.1)

Brett Anderson (LHP) @ Lance Lynn (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: TEX -115

Pitcher Breakdown: Brett Anderson is not an option due to his 4.64 K/9 and 3.55 BB/9. He also enters with an 83 percent contact rate. Lefties have actually hit Anderson around this season and the Rangers have a few of them in their lineup.

Lance Lynn has allowed three or fewer runs in five straight starts, but I’m not interested. The Athletics don’t strikeout much and they have a ton of power in their lineup. Lynn has a 5.28 ERA at home compared to a 3.95 ERA on the road. He’s rocking a 39 percent hard-hit rate and 36 percent fly ball rate.

Batter Breakdown: There’s a ton of value in Oakland with Matt Olson, Khris Davis and Stephen Piscotty. All three are extremely affordable on FD and you can throw Matt Chapman into the mix over there as well.

I wouldn’t ignore TEX as this is one of the highest total games of the night. Delino DeShields has seven hits in his three games since the call up. He has a run in all three contests and two stolen bases. He’s leading off again. His price and Elvis Andrus‘ definitely stands out on FD.

Pittsburgh Pirates (3.6) @ Milwaukee Brewers (6)

Rookie Davis (RHP) @ Brandon Woodruff (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: MIL -270

Pitcher Breakdown: Rookie Davis has allowed 46 hits, 28 runs and nine homers in 31.2 career innings. Tonight will be his first start in the bigs since 2017 and it’ll be his fifth appearances for the Pirates this season. Davis has given up eight hits, five runs and two homers in 7.2 innings.

Brandon Woodruff‘s price doesn’t make sense as he’s one of the better values this evening. He’s coming off his worst start of the season, which happened to be against PIT, so maybe that’s the reason for the price. He could come low-owned because of it, but I’d imagine most are counting on a bounce back performance. Woodruff allowed six runs in his last outing, but he had allowed two or fewer in his previous six starts, and one or zero in five of those outings. The Brewers’ pitchers has a 3.66 ERA at home compared to a 4.03 mark on the road.

Batter Breakdown: The MIL bats will be very chalky tonight, and I’ll probably fade most in tournaments because of it. I think they make for a strong cash option if you can manage to get them in. Of course, it’s much easier to get in Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal on FD. I still think Travis Shaw is a good GPP play, as is Eric Thames on FD.

Baltimore Orioles (2.8) @ Houston Astros (5.3)

Gabriel Ynoa (RHP) @ Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: HOU -347

Pitcher Breakdown: Gerrit Cole may allow a couple solo home runs as he’s given up 14 on the season, and at least one in 10 of his 13 starts, but he’ll likely rack up 10 K. He has at least 10 strikeouts in six outings this season. That’s the difference between him and Soroka when comparing the two.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed bats have a .357/.400/.607 slash line with a .421 wOBA vs. Gabriel Ynoa. That puts Alex Bregman in play, but he’s just about the only HOU bat I feel good about in cash. The Astros rank in the bottom eight in average and wOBA over the last two weeks. It doesn’t make me like Ynoa, but in cash maybe you stay away. There are safer options elsewhere.

Chicago White Sox (4.9) @ Kansas City Royals (5.2)

Ivan Nova (RHP) @ Homer Bailey (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: KC -122

Pitcher Breakdown: Ivan Nova has coughed up 91 hits, 46 runs and 13 homers in 12 starts (66.1). He only has 40 strikeouts over that span and his 94 percent contact rate is one of the highest in the league.

Homer Bailey is dirt cheap, but there’s a reason. The biggest is his 48 percent hard-hit rate followed by his 4.09 BB/9 ratio. Bailey has allowed four homers in his past four starts and at least four runs in three of those four outings. I get going off the board with a stars-and-scrubs approach, but I’d rather attack Bailey. Rostering him as a second DK pitcher will allow you to do a lot with your lineup.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed bats are slashing .318/.384/.439 with a .355 wOBA vs. Bailey. They also have a 48 percent hard-hit rate against him. Most of the CWS bats are pricey, but I think there’s a great opportunity to jump on Eloy Jimenez in tournaments. He’s very affordable on both sites. Jose Abreu‘s price is appealing over there as well.

Righty or lefty, doesn’t really matter vs Nova. Lefties are hitting .360 with a .409 wOBA and righties are hitting .311 with a .371 wOBA. The KC bats are crazy expensive on DK, but if you’re a FD player, it’s easier to get in Whit Merrifield or Jorge Soler. You can take some shots with Ryan O’Hearn in tournaments.

Seattle Mariners (3.8) @ Los Angeles Angels (5.3)

Marco Gonzales (LHP) @ Andrew Heaney (LHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: LAA -195

Pitcher Breakdown: The last time we saw Marco Gonzales was against this same Angels team and they lit him up for 10 runs on nine hits over 4.2 innings. Gonzales has run out of all his early season luck as he’s allowed 32 hits and 22 runs in his last four outings (20.2 IP). The Mariners’ pitcher has a 82 percent contact rate, 39 percent hard-hit rate and 40 percent fly ball rate.

Andrew Heaney has 19 strikeouts and one walk over his first 11 innings. He just faced Seattle and racked up 10 K in six innings. I fear he will be chalky, but I like the call. Seattle ranks seventh in strikeout percentage against southpaws.

Batter Breakdown: Lefties are hitting .308 against Gonzales so don’t be surprised if you see Shohei Ohtani and Kole Calhoun in the lineup as they both tend to sit out against LHP. Mike Trout is an absolute must as I’ve been saying all week. He’s just on one of those runs which has seen him hit four homers in his last seven games. He’s the number one fantasy player in the last seven days: 360 AVG, .500 OBP, four homers, nine hits, eight runs, eight RBI and one stolen base.

Washington Nationals (4.6) @ San Diego Padres (4.5)

Erick Fedde (RHP) @ Nick Margevicius (LHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: SD -105

Pitcher Breakdown: Eric Fedde has pitched 24.2 innings this season and he’s coughed up 21 hits, seven runs, two homers and 11 walks while only striking out 15. He carries an 81 percent contact rate into his fourth start of the season.

Nick Margevicius has only pitched six complete innings once this season and it came on April 10th against the Giants. He comes into this start having allowed 22 hits, 15 runs and six homers in his past three outings (12 IP). The Padres’ pitcher has served up 11 homers this season and at least one in seven of his 10 starts.

Batter Breakdown: LHB have a .349/.388/.714 and .451 wOBA against Margevicius. Dial up Juan Soto and get Anthony Rendon in there too. Howie Kendrick is very affordable on FD

Lefties are hitting .306 against Fedde this season, so don’t ignore Eric Hosmer‘s price as he’s pretty cheap on both sites. Fernando Tatis Jr‘s price hasn’t caught up on FD since his return and Manny Machado is underpriced as well.

Los Angeles Dodgers (4.6) @ San Francisco Giants (3)

Clayton Kershaw (LHP) @ Drew Pomeranz (LHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: SF +200

Pitcher Breakdown: Clayton Kershaw has taken a step back overall, but he has the easiest matchup and I love the environment. The Giants rank last in wOBA, last in wRC+, and second-last in average against LHP. The have the third-fewest homers against southpaws.

The Dodgers are much better against lefties. In fact, they rank in the top 10 in all of those categories where the Giants basically rank last. Drew Pomeranz has allowed 22 runs in his last four starts (10.1 IP). That’s right, 25 hits, 22 runs and six homers in his last 10.1 innings.

Batter Breakdown: LAD bats will be complete chalk, but I don’t know how you get away from them, especially on FD. I want them all: Justin Turner, David Freese, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are basically free. Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger are a bit pricier, but I like them, despite the lefty/lefty matchup.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw

Best Value Pitchers: Jacob deGrom, Brandon Woodruff & Homer Bailey

Pitchers I’m feeling: Gerrit Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney & Brandon Woodruff

Contrarian GPP options: Tyler Mahle, Zach Plesac & Homer Bailey

Pitchers to fade: Jacob deGrom (cash), Mike Soroka (GPP fade) & Matt Boyd

Best Overall Hitters: Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, Freddie Freeman, Christian Yelich, Alex Bregman, Jose Abreu, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Justin Turner & Cody Bellinger

Best value Hitters (DK): Joey Votto, Yasiel Puig, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Nelson Cruz, Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Travis Shaw, Eloy Jimenez, Manny Machado & Eric Hosmer

Best value Hitters (FD): Joey Votto, Derek Dietrich, Jay Bruce, David Peralta, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Aaron Hicks, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Delino DeShields, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Derek Fisher, Eloy Jimenez, Whit Merriefield, Jorge Soler, Howie Kendrick, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor & David Freese

Home Run Call of the Day: Mike Trout

Others HR calls to consider: Jay Bruce, Mookie Betts, C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Freddie Freeman, Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Alex Bregman, Eloy Jimenez, Jorge Soler, Albert Pujols, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Cody Bellinger & Justin Turner

Stack ranks: MIL, LAD, WSH, OAK & TEX

Underrated stack: MIN, ATL, SD & LAA

Stacks to fade: HOU, NYY & TB

Bet of the Day: LAD -1.5 (-150)

Others to consider: ATL -1.5 (-115), MIN -120, MIL -1.5 (-140) & WSH -115

OVER/UNDERS: OAK/TEX O 10, CWS/KC O 10, NYY/CLE U 9 & WSH/SD O 9

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