MLB DFS Breakdown – Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is on a tear – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Breakdown – Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is on a tear – The Quant Edge

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we target value with guys like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Jose Ramirez and Keston Hiura.

Cleveland Indians (5.4) @ Baltimore Orioles (3.7)

Mike Clevinger (RHP) @ John Means (LHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: BAL +190

Pitcher Breakdown: Mike Clevinger is back off the IL and is good to start in Baltimore after missing his last outing due to an ankle injury. Clevinger has an impressive 29 strikeouts in 16.2 innings this season. He fanned seven in his last outing and threw 91 pitches, so there shouldn’t be any limitations tonight. The Orioles have a top 10 strikeout rate, so Clevinger should at least rack up seven punch-outs.

John Means is due for a bit of regression and his 45 percent fly ball rate has led to six homers in his past nine starts. Having said that, lefties are only hitting .190 against him and he’s allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his 12 starts. In fact, it’s been two or fewer in nine starts.

Batter Breakdown: Jose Ramirez has standalone value in tournaments as he’s hitting .278 vs LHP compared to .185 vs RHP. Six of the eight bombs Means has allowed have been against right-handed hitters. Jordan Luplow is rocking a .458 wOBA vs LHP.

Kansas City Royals (4.6) @ Toronto Blue Jays (5)

Danny Duffy (LHP) @ Sean Reid-Foley (RHP)

Over/Under: 10  Moneyline: TOR -125

Pitcher Breakdown: Danny Duffy used to be a decent strikeout guy to target, but he only has 50 through 62.1 innings and he’s allowed seven homers in his past six starts. He checks in with a 40 FB% and 42 percent mark for his career.

Sean Reid-Foley has absolutely no command of his pitches as he’s walked 26 through 37.1 MLB innings. He’s issued five free passes in four innings this season and 51 over 69 Triple-A innings.

Batter Breakdown: Whit Merrifield is the best hitter in this KC lineup and Jorge Soler is one of the better values. Seventeen of his 21 homers have come against RHP. Nicky Lopez has value on both sites.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is on some kind of tear, plus he’s just crushed lefties this season: .344 AVG, .455 wOBA and 7 HR. He has three homers in his last three games and enters on a five-game multi-hit streak. In the last two weeks, Gurriel has a .352 average with six homers, 11 RBI and 11 runs. Eric Sogard tends to lead off vs LHP thanks to a .381 wOBA and four homers vs southpaws. Both are easy on the wallet if playing on FanDuel.

Washington Nationals (5.8) @ Detroit Tigers (4.8)

Anibal Sanchez (RHP) @ Daniel Norris (LHP)

Over/Under: 10.5  Moneyline: DET +140

Pitcher Breakdown: If Anibal Sanchez can get to the sixth inning, he’ll most likely get you a win. He’s not quite cheap enough to go all in on, but he’s allowed three or fewer runs in eight straight outings. He could also easily rack up a few Ks against the Tigers, who rank second in strikeout rate (26%).

Daniel Norris has a 7.36 K/9 and 15.6% HR/FB. He’s allowed 10 homers in his last nine starts and at least one in eight of his 13 outings. Right-handed hitters have 11 of the 14 homers against Norris.

Batter Breakdown: Anthony Rendon is rocking a .434 wOBA, 52 HH% and .306 average against lefties. He’s worth every bit of his salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I would take shots with Brian Dozier while taking advantage of value on FD with Howie Kendrick and/or Ryan Zimmerman, should he return. Dozier’s .447 wOBA vs southpaws is the ninth-highest in the game.

Philadelphia Phillies (4.4) @ Miami Marlins (3.7)

Vince Velasquez (RHP) @ Elieser Hernandez (RHP)

Over/Under: 8  Moneyline: MIA +125

Pitcher Breakdown: Vince Velasquez is much like Anibal Sanchez with a bit more strikeout upside. Like Sanchez, there’s a decent chance at a win here, although, Velasquez failed to pick up the W in his two starts against Miami this season. That was more on his offense, though, as he only allowed two runs on three hits over 11 total innings. The two runs came via the home run and he finished with nine punch-outs. The Phillies’ pitcher just faced Miami last weekend and allowed one hit over five innings.

Elieser Hernandez has an impressive 19 strikeouts in 16.2 innings, but he’s allowed three bombs and has been hit hard (41%). It’s a small sample size, but Hernandez a 43 FB% and lefties are hitting .385 with a .478 wOBA against him.

Batter Breakdown: Bryce Harper is heating up as he’s reached base in nine straight games and went yard for last night for the second time in the past six games.

Texas Rangers (3.8) @ Tampa Bay Rays (4.3)

Lance Lynn (RHP) @ Yonny Chirinos (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: TB -135 

Pitcher Breakdown: Lance Lynn‘s streak of three runs or fewer finally ended at eight starts after he allowed five in his last outing against the White Sox. Lynn has been pretty solid this season as he enters with a 108:25 K:BB over 100 innings. He’s a tad too expensive for my liking.

Yonny Chirinos has a very low K-Rate (7.34) and he’s served up 14 bombs this season. He’s only appeared in 16 games for the Rays this season.

Batter Breakdown: Lefties are only hitting .178 against Chirinos, though, so the under may just be the play in this game. Texas is filled with LHB, which would explain the low team implied total. Danny Santana is someone to think about, though, especially because he has five homers in his past eight games.

Lynn has allowed seven homers to RHB, and three overall in his last four outings. There’s some standalone value with Avisail Garcia and Yandy Diaz.

Atlanta Braves (3.7) @ New York Mets (4.4)

Mike Soroka (RHP) @ Jacob deGrom (RHP)

Over/Under: 8   Moneyline: NYM -145

Pitcher Breakdown: Mike Soroka is finally at a price where I like him, but he’s up against Jacob deGrom, which makes him a pass. You can roll the dice in tournaments, but he basically has to be perfect to return value. Soroka has a rock solid 2.07 ERA, but he only has 63 strikeouts in 78.1 innings. In fact, he only has six punch-outs in his last 13 innings.

It’s always a little scary rostering a pitcher against the Braves, but deGrom is feeling it. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in seven straight starts and 10 of his last 11. He has at least eight strikeouts in four consecutive outings, including a 10 K performance in Atlanta on June 18th. He gave up two solo shots over 8.1 innings on route to the win. Tournaments only for me.

Batter Breakdown: I like the under.

Chicago Cubs (4.8) @ Cincinnati Reds (4.3)

Cole Hamels (LHP) @ Sonny Gray (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: CIN +114

Pitcher Breakdown: Cole Hamels checks in with a 2.92 ERA as he’s only allowed more than three runs in a start once over his last 15 outings. He comes in having given up just four earned runs in his past 36 innings.

Sonny Gray has cooled off as he’s allowed four homers and five walks in his last two outings. The Cubs hit two homers against him earlier in the year as well. Gray has seen a spike in strikeouts this season (10.07), but he still has a concerning 3.67 BB/9. He’s issued at least three walks in three of his past six starts. He also has a 4.26 ERA at home, compared to a 3.79 mark on the road.

Batter Breakdown: Javier Baez is $3.6 on FanDuel and $5.2 on DraftKings so that certainly stands out. There’s always so much value on FanDuel, so it’s hard not to get involved over there with the likes of Baez and Eugenio Suaraez in tournaments. The Cubs may have a big weekend.

Minnesota Twins (N/A) @ Chicago White Sox (N/A)

Jose Berrios (RHP) @  N/A (LHP)

Over/Under:    Moneyline: 

Pitcher Breakdown: Jose Berrios is absolutely in play as the Twins will be heavy favorites and Chicago has the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball.

Nothing is official yet with the White Sox, but it seems like Odrisamer Despaigne may get the ball, which is good news for the Twins and Berrios.

Batter Breakdown: The Twins are a good play on the money line, no matter who takes the mound for the White Sox. FanDuel hasn’t adjusted their price for Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron or Max Kepler. Check back later for an update when we get some lines.

Seattle Mariners (3.9) @ Houston Astros (5.9)

Tommy Milone (LHP) @ Wade Miley (LHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: HOU -228

Pitcher Breakdown: I don’t have any interest in either of these pitchers, but I’d fade Seattle with lefty Wade Miley on the hill. He should be able to limit the damage against a lineup that is full of lefties.

Tommy Milone has been better than anticipated, but he’s still allowed six homers in six outings this season. He’s also limited right-handed batters to a .194 average and .250 wOBA.

Batter Breakdown: Maybe that means we stay away from this game altogether, due to all the lefties Seattle has and all the struggles the Astros have had lately. At least that’s probably how we should feel in cash. I think everyone who was burned by the Astros this week will shy away from them. It’s only a matter of time before they wake up, so have some exposure in tournaments.

Pittsburgh Pirates (5) @ Milwaukee Brewers (6.2)

Chris Archer (RHP) @ Jhoulys Chacin (RHP)

Over/Under: 11 Moneyline: MIL -157

Pitcher Breakdown: Chris Archer has 74 strikeouts in 69.2 innings, but that’s all that’s nice. He has a 4.65 B/9, 5.56 ERA and 23.7 HR/FB%. Archer has walked at least two batters in every start and has served up at least one homer in 10 straight outings. The Brewers already hit two against him this season, in Pittsburgh. Archer has a career high 44 HH% and 40 FB%

Jhoulys Chacin hasn’t faired much better as he checks in with a 4.41 BB/9, 5.88 ERA and 17.1% HR/FB. He’s walked at least three batters in three of his past four games and has allowed at least one homer in nine of his 14 outings.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed batters have nine homers against Chacin, and the Pirates come in hot. Kevin Newman has a couple of bombs in his last two games and enters with a 17-game hit streak. He has hits in 40 of his 45 starts this season. The first three hitters in PIT’s lineup on FanDuel are appealing: Newman, Bryan Reynolds and Starling Marte. Of course, if you’re going to go opposite contrarian stack for his game in GPP’s, get Josh Bell in there.

Yay for the return of Keston Hiura, who is somehow $2.3K on FanDuel. He’ll be chalky, but he’s worth it. It’s very easy to stack Christian Yelich and MIL on FanDuel. Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal are all worthy of roster spots.

Los Angeles Dodgers (7.4) @ Colorado Rockies (5.3)

Hyun-jin Ryu (LHP) @ Antonio Senzatela (RHP)

Over/Under: 12.5 Moneyline: COL +172

Pitcher Breakdown: I think you take the price discount on Hyun-jin Ryu and run. It’s obviously very risky considering how the Rockies ate up Walker Buehler last night, but there’s a chance we can get Ryu low owned. It’s the true test for the lefty, really, as he’s yet to allowed more than two earned runs in his 15 starts. He has 90 strikeouts and only six walks in 99 innings (1.27 ERA).

Antonio Senzatela checks in with an 85 percent contact rate and 38 percent hard-hit rate. It’s a big reason why he has a 6.21 ERA at home.

Batter Breakdown: Lefties have crushed Senzatela: .336/.424/.531 with a .402 wOBA. You’d really have to spend down at SP in order to stack Dodgers, but you should have some sort of combination of…Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson. Matthew Beaty is the value bat in the lineup.

There really isn’t a discount on COL bats if you’re looking to be contrarian. Nolan Arenado, David Dahl and Ian Desmond have had success vs LHP this season.

Oakland Athletics (4.6) @ Los Angeles Angels (5.5)

Mike Fiers (RHP) @ Noe Ramirez (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: LAA -147

Pitcher Breakdown: Mike Fiers hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since April 20th if you can believe it. He’s tossed 12 innings against the Angels this season and he’s only allowed three runs. He had a start against them in March where he allowed one hit over six scoreless. He only fanned two in that outing, though, and he only has 62 strikeouts in 94.1 innings, which is why rostering him is a problem. Plus, the Angels have the lowest K-Rate in baseball.

Felix Pena will take over this game for the Angels and he’s allowed five homers in his last three outings. Lefty bats have seven bombs and a .374 wOBA to go along with a .283/.367/.520 slash line against him.

Batter Breakdown: I don’t understand Matt Olson‘s price, especially on FanDuel ($3.3K). Olson hit his third home run of the season against the Angels last night.

I’m not sure stacking Angels against Fiers is the right call, but there’s some value in their lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton and Andrelton Summons. Last night was the first time all year the Angels played with a full lineup and they put up eight runs. They are a team that’s trending up.

St. Louis Cardinals (4.4) @ San Diego Padres (4.7)

Michael Wacha (RHP) @ Eric Lauer (LHP)

Over/Under: 9  Moneyline: SD -120

Pitcher Breakdown: You want to know how to roster LAD bats? Start Michael Wacha. I get it, it’s extremely risky, but he’s basically free against a team that has the highest strikeout rate in baseball. The environment is friendly and he’s allowed one or zero runs in three of his past five starts.

You could go the other way with Eric Lauer, but he doesn’t strike out enough batters to get excited about. He has 63 punch-outs in 81.1 innings, but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his last 11 outings. His 2.70 ERA at home should make you think about the under.

Batter Breakdown: The STL bats are quiet and Lauer doesn’t give up much at home. I still believe in rostering Paul Goldschmidt in tournaments, despite the slump. Jose Martinez is a decent value play.

If you’re not feeling the Wacha call, get some RHB in your lineup as they have a .338/.406/.619 and .419 wOBA against Wacha. Twelve of the 14 bombs he’s allowed have been vs RHB. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are in some kind of grove, and FanDuel is snoozing on both. Hunter Renfroe is affordable over there as well, as is Franmil Reyes.

Arizona Diamondbacks (3.8) @ San Francisco Giants (3.8)

Merrill Kelly (RHP) @ Shaun Anderson (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: SF -105

Pitcher Breakdown: Merrill Kelly will face the Giants for the second straight time. He racked up nine strikeouts against them last week and he’s only allowed two runs in 11.1 innings against them this season. You never really know what you’re going to get with him, but he’s certainly an option for the late slate players.

Shaun Anderson is not because he’s rocking an 87 contact percentage and he comes in with 26 strikeouts over 45.2 innings.

Batter Breakdown: The Diamondbacks have 14 hits and six runs in 11 innings against Anderson this season, so they’ll make some contact again tonight. David Peralta, Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar make for a decent late slate stack.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Jacob deGrom

Best Value Pitchers: Vince Velasquez, Anibal Sanchez & Michael Wacha

Pitchers I’m feeling: Mike Clevinger, Cole Hamels, Jose Berrios, Vince Velasquez, Anibal Sanchez, Michael Wacha & Merrill Kelly (late)

Contrarian GPP options: Jacob deGrom & Hyun-jin Ryu

Pitchers to fade: Lance Lynn & Mike Soroka

Pitchers to pick on: Odrisamer Despaigne, Antonio Senzatela, Chris Archer, Jhoulys Chacin, Daniel Norris, Danny Duffy, Sean Reid-Foley & Shaun Anderson

Top Overall Hitters: Whit Merrifield, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Anthony Rizzo, Christian Yelich, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Matt Olson, Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., David Peralta & Ketel Marte

Best value Hitters (DK): Jorge Soler, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Brian Dozier, Robinson Cano, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Altuve, Matt Olson, Khris Davis & Justin Upton

Best value Hitters (FD): Jose Ramirez, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Scott Kingery, Rougned Odor, Avisail Garcia, Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick, Brian Dozier, Javier Baez, Eugenio Suarez, Kevin Newman, Keston Hiura, Tyler White, Matthew Beaty, Ian Desmond, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Andrelton Simmons, Jose Martinez, Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes & David Peralta

Home Run Call of the Day: Anthony Rendon

Others HR calls to consider: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bryce Harper, Jose Ramirez, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Josh Bell, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Matt Olson, Mike Trout, Manny Machado & Franmil Reyes

Stack ranks: LAD, MIL, WSH, MIN & HOU

Underrated stack: TOR, PIT, KC, CHC, SD & ARI

Stacks to fade: LAA, COL, CLE, NYM & TEX

Bet of the Day: WSH -157

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