MLB DFS Breakdown | Lock in Gary Sanchez and his high fly ball rate

MLB DFS Breakdown | Lock in Gary Sanchez and his high fly ball rate

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we go looking for some heavy home run hitters such as Gary Sanchez, Mike Trout and Matt Chapman.

New York Yankees (5.9) @ Toronto Blue Jays (4.2)

J.A. Happ (LHP) @ Edwin Jackson (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: TOR +170

Pitcher Breakdown: I know what you’re thinking…J.A. Happ has been awful and there’s no way you can make me feel good about playing him tonight. Well, you are correct. Happ has been awful as he enters with a 4.83 ERA and 15 allowed home runs – at least one in 11 of his 12 starts. He also only has 55 strikeouts in 63.1 innings, which isn’t a great ratio.

On the flip side…Happ has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five starts and he’s coming off one of his better outings against the Red Sox where he only allowed one run on three hits over five innings. He also has 15 strikeouts in his last 11 innings and the Blue Jays have a 25 K%. It’s hard to get behind Happ after seeing the Jays rock James Paxton last night, but that was a surprise, so it’s not like Happ can’t surprise us by having a decent start. It’s a very small slate and a chance to be different by jumping on some value as a second pitcher on DraftKings. Maybe it’s just one lineup? At least you know his team will give him some run support.

Edwin Jackson has surrendered 30 hits, 24 runs and six homers in 16.1 innings. That is not a misprint. Jackson has given up 17 hits, 17 runs and four homers in his last two starts (6.1 innings).

Batter Breakdown: Absolutely everyone has crushed Jackson this season, especially RHB: .447/.500/1.053 with a .618 wOBA. All six of the home runs he’s allowed have come to right-handed batters. Gary Sanchez is probably worth your money as he sits second in the league with a 55 percent fly ball rate. I wouldn’t ignore an opportunity to jump on value on FanDuel with Aaron Hicks. Clint Frazier and Luke Voit are in play as well. You could even attack the bottom of their order in tournaments because they’ll likely get some at-bats with runners on.

There’s definitely a lot of value with Toronto bats if you’re not feeling the Happ call. Vlad Guerrero has been a value for weeks and was impressive last night. Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez have some pop in their bats as they check in reasonably cheap. Hernandez is $2.0K on FD.

Minnesota Twins (4.2) @ Cleveland Indians (4.4)

Jose Berrios (RHP) @ Trevor Bauer (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: CLE -118

Pitcher Breakdown: Jose Berrios and Trevor Bauer have had some issues this season, but they have tremendously high ceilings. Berrios is in a better spot and is more expensive on DraftKings because of it. That’s not the case on FanDuel, where Bauer may be a contrarian option. I can’t imagine many wanting to roster $10.4K Bauer and his walk rate against one of the better offensive teams in the league. That’s why I’m in.

There’s plenty of value on FanDuel to have a Bauer/Patrick Corbin approach. Bauer enters with 96 strikeouts in 83.2 innings, and 16 in his past two starts where he only allowed four combined runs over 13 innings. He also has a showing in Minnesota this season where he fanned nine and allowed one run on one hit over seven innings. Berrios is a bit safer, but Bauer has a higher ceiling.

Batter Breakdown: I wouldn’t fade Twinkies all together as Bauer has given up 10 homers and some hard contact. Right-handed hitters only have a .160 average against him, so if you are going to attack it’s Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario and Marwin Gonzalez for me. It’s really tough to get Polanco and Rosario in on DraftKings, so they’ll likely be low owned.

You know the drill by now: Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. The value on both will soon be gone. Lindor is straight up feeling it as he’s now hitting .311 on the season with four homers in his past five games. He’s also 8 for his last 11 with three homers, five runs and four RBI. Ramirez finished 2-for-4 yesterday with three RBI and a stolen base. Lost in all his awfulness, are his 15 stolen bases on the season. Petty impressive considering he’s hitting .207.

Baltimore Orioles (4.7) @ Texas Rangers (6.4)

David Hess (RHP) @ Ariel Jurado (RHP)

Over/Under: 11 Moneyline: TEX -186

Pitcher Breakdown: David Hess has a ridiculous 51 percent fly ball rate and 41 percent hard-hit rate. His contact rate is sitting at 83 percent and he’s allowed a league-high 19 home runs. It’s been so bad for him that he’s not even at the top of the HR list on FanGraphs because he doesn’t have enough innings to qualify. The Orioles’ pitcher has given up at least four runs in seven of his last 10 starts and 24 runs and nine homers in his last 20.2 innings (four starts).

You can get nuts with Ariel Jurado as a secondary DK GPP option if you want. He can complete a stars-and-scrubs lineup, which will allow you to get TEX/NYY bats. Jurado has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his three starts. He carries a 2.43 ERA over 29.2 innings. The strikeout rate isn’t high, but he has a rock solid 53 ground ball rate.

Batter Breakdown: We were right to think last night’s game wouldn’t have 21 runs as both teams were throwing out their best pitchers in John Means and Mike Minor. As you read above, that’s not the case tonight, especially with Baltimore. Right-handed bats have a .706 SLG, .422 wOBA and 46 percent hard-hit rate against Hess. In a lineup full of lefties, look at Hunter Pence. Asdrubal Cabrera, Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara are cheap flyers to consider as Texas’ 6.4 team implied total is the highest on the slate.

On the Orioles side of things, I still like Hanser Alberto and Renato Nunez on FanDuel.

Oakland Athletics (4.6) @ Los Angeles Angels (5)

Mike Fiers (RHP) @ Tyler Skaggs (LHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: LAA -129

Pitcher Breakdown: Mike Fiers checks in with a 44 percent fly ball rate, which has led to 13 homers and he’s currently rocking a 40 percent hard-hit rate. Fiers has allowed 32 bombs in each of his last two seasons as he’s an easy guy to target, despite allowing three or fewer runs in seven straight starts. Over those seven starts, he’s walked 12 and allowed seven homers. The strikeout ceiling isn’t high and the Angels have a league-low 16 K%.

Tyler Skaggs should only be considered in tournaments and even then, I don’t love him. The Angels’ pitcher has 22 punch-outs in his last 18.1 innings, but the Athletics have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20 K%).

Batter Breakdown: Oakland’s .277 average and .355 wOBA against lefties ranks fifth. They come in with the second-most homers vs southpaws (29), led by Khris Davis (6) and Matt Chapman (6), who is second on the A’s with a .416 wOBA vs LHP, behind Stephen Piscotty‘s .429 mark.

Right-handed batters are only hitting .194 against Fiers this season, but I still feel pretty good about Mike Trout. Eight of the 13 homers he’s allowed have been to RHB and they have a much higher hard-hit rate against him than lefties. That said, Shohei Ohtani (again) and Kole Calhoun are on my radar. Ohtani is still easy on the bank account and he has three homers in his past five games. Over that span, he has nine RBI and Trout has seven runs.

Washington Nationals (3.7) @ San Diego Padres (3.9)

Patrick Corbin (LHP) @ Joey Lucchesi (LHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: SD -115

Pitcher Breakdown: Should we play or fade Patrick Corbin? I say both! He’s is coming off an outing where he allowed six runs on 11 hits over 2.2 innings. He also only has seven strikeouts in his past 11.2 innings, so there’s a chance he may get glossed over. It’s unlikely on a small slate like this as the Padres enter with the highest strikeout rate in baseball. 26.9 K% overall and 27.3 K% vs LHP. SD’s .216 average against southpaws is the lowest in the league. We’ll get to the reasons to fade him below.

Joey Lucchesi has allowed three or fewer runs in five straight starts and six of his past seven. Maybe even more impressive is the fact he’s given up three or fewer hits in three of his past four starts and five or fewer hits in five straight starts. In fact, Lucchesi has only allowed more than five hits in three of his 11 starts this season. He’s rocking a 2.61 ERA over 41.1 home innings compared to a 6.75 ERA over 20 road innings. The hard-hit rate is low and the ground ball rate his high, so don’t be surprised if this game is low scoring.

Batter Breakdown: I plan on shying away from the offense in this game, but there are a couple value/high upside bats to consider. Manny Machado is extremely affordable on both sites, especially on FanDuel where he’s $3.1K. He leads the team with a .389 average and .561 wOBA. Fernando Tatis Jr. is expected back this evening and he has a .333 average and .509 wOBA vs southpaws. Tatis has an absurd 71 percent fly ball rate and 77 percent hard-hit rate against LHP (small sample). Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe have some great looking numbers against lefties as well. So in contests where you fade Corbin, stack Padres.

vs LHP:

Manny Machado: 389 AVG, 6 HR, .561 wOBA, .528 ISO & 64 HH%
Hunter Renfroe: .291 AVG, 4 HR, .490 wOBA, .405 ISO & 51 HH%
Wil Myers: .294 AVG, 3 HR, .405 wOBA, 294 ISO & 68 HH%
Fernando Tatis (small sample): .333 AVG, .508 wOBA, .333 ISO & 75 HH%

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Patrick Corbin

Best Value Pitchers: J.A. Happ & Ariel Jurado

Pitchers I’m feeling: Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ & Ariel Jurado

Contrarian GPP options: Trevor Bauer & Joey Lucchesi

Best Overall Hitters: Gary Sanchez, Francisco Lindor, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon & Manny Machado

Best value Hitters (DK): Kendrys Morales, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez, Hanser Alberto, Rougned Odor, Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty, Shohei Ohtani & Manny Machado

Best value Hitters (FD): Aaron Hicks, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Marwin Gonzalez, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez, Rougned Odor, Asdrubal Cabrera, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Howie Kendrick, Manny Machado & Wil Myers

Home Run Call of the Day: Gary Sanchez

Others HR calls to consider: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rougned Odor, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Manny Machado & Hunter Renfroe

Stack ranks: NYY, TEX, OAK  & LAA

Underrated stack: SD & TOR

Bet of the Day: NYY 1.5 (-145)

Others to consider: MIN/CLE U 8.5, TEX -186, OAK +107 & WSH/SD U 7.5

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