MLB DFS Breakdown | Kyle Schwarber continues to provide value

MLB DFS Breakdown | Kyle Schwarber continues to provide value

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we discuss the best plays for today’s slate, which includes a ton of value and risk with guys like Trevor Bauer, German Marquez and Mike Foltynewicz.

Boston Red Sox (5) @ New York Yankees (4.1)

Chris Sale (LHP) @ J.A. Happ (LHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: NYY +130

Pitcher Breakdown: Chris Sale gets the Yankees for the second time this season and he only lasted five innings in his first showing against them. Sale struck out six through five, but he allowed four runs on seven hits. Sale has turned things around since then (three or fewer runs in seven straight starts), but he’s allowed 10 homers on the season and at least one in eight of his 11 starts. He’s not my favotire pitcher on the board, but he has the highest ceiling.

J.A. Happ has been awful this season as he enters with a 5.09 ERA, 39 percent hard-hit rate and 43 percent fly ball rate. His hard-hit rate is as high as it’s been since his rookie season in 2007 and his FB% is as high as it’s been since 2013. Happ has already allowed 14 home runs, including five in his past three starts. On top of that, Happ has allowed at least three runs in seven of his 11 starts. He’s also been much worse at home (5.93 ERA), where he’s given up nine bombs and 20 earned runs over 30.1 innings.

Batter Breakdown: Thirteen of the 14 home runs Happ has allowed have come to RHB, so we will likely see Steve Pearce get in the lineup. Pearce, Andrew Benintendi and Eduardo Nunez are all easy on the wallet if you’re playing on FD. The pricing is just much looser over there, but if you can afford some big bats, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez is where you should look. Martinez has a league-high .511 wOBA, .500 ISO and .350 average against LHP this season. He also has six homers. Xander Bogaerts has crushed lefties too: .478 wOBA and .415 average.

San Francisco Giants (4.7) @ Baltimore Orioles (4.4)

Drew Pomeranz (LHP) @  Andrew Cashner (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: BAL +100

Pitcher Breakdown: Drew Pomeranz has allowed nine home runs in nine starts and it has been five outings since he’s pitched five innings. Pomeranz has coughed up 19 hits, 14 runs, four homers and seven walks in his last nine innings (three starts). Eight of the nine homers he’s allowed have come against RHB and righties enter with a .418 wOBA against him.

Andrew Cashner should be able to limit the damage against the Giants, but he’s not a fantasy option due to his low strikeout rate.

Batter Breakdown: Hanser Alberto enters with a .411 wOBA vs LHP and he’s extremely affordable on FD. Renato Nunez has a league-high seven bombs against southpaws.

Milwaukee Brewers (5) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (4.6)

Jhoulys Chacin (RHP) @ Chris Archer (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: PIT +107

Pitcher Breakdown: Rostering Jhoulys Chacin will allow you to do a lot with your lineup, but there’s also a lot of risk involved. It’s a stars and scrubs approach on DK, if you’re looking to get a little nuts. I’d personally shy away from both pitchers in this matchup.

Chris Archer has allowed 19 runs and 15 walks in his last four starts (17.2 IP). He’s surrendered six homers in his past five starts and eight through eight outings this season. Archer enters with a career-high 5.31 BB/9 and 46 FB%. His hard-hit rate is at 40 percent and it’s been at the 39 percent mark in each of his past three seasons now. He’s not the same pitcher he once was.

Batter Breakdown: Archer can’t be trusted right now just like Joe Musgrove couldn’t be trusted last night. It was the lefty bats yesterday as the Brewers put up 11 runs in PIT and tonight it’s the righty bats. Right-handed hitters are slashing .304/.430/.493 with a .394 wOBA against Archer. Lorenzo Cain has value on both sites as does Keston Hiura. Jesus Aguilar returns to the lineup at cheap price and won’t be on anybody’s radar. It’s an offense that should hit the 4.5 team implied total.

Minnesota Twins (3.8) @ Tampa Bay Rays (4.3)

Jose Berrios (RHP) @ Ryne Stanek (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: TB -132

Pitcher Breakdown: Jose Berrios has limited the walks, but he’s given up a lot of contact – 70 hits in 70.1 innings. Over his past three starts (17 IP), Berrios has allowed 29 hits and 13 runs. It wouldn’t shock me if he had a great outing, but the Rays put up 14 runs last night and with the recent struggles, you can only think of Berrios in tournaments. There are some better options in this price range, but he makes for a low-owned tournament option for multi-entry players.

Batter Breakdown: The Twins were quiet yesterday and they enter as road dogs again tonight. There’s certainly some value on the money line if you want to get on board with the best offense in baseball. Jorge Polanco should return to the lineup and he’s been one of the better cash game plays all year. Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop and Byron Buxton all make for a bottom of the order stack which is affordable and should be low owned.

Washington Nationals (4.7) @ Cincinnati Reds (4.4)

Patrick Corbin (LHP) @ Tyler Mahle (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: CIN +105

Pitcher Breakdown: Patrick Corbin is too expensive for my liking. There are just too many options on the board and a lot of value to attack. If you’re looking to be contrarian – because I do think many will shy away due to the high price as well – Corbin is your guy. I see too much value down the board to waste all my money at the top.

Tyler Mahle has been very impressive at times, but he’s had five blow up starts along the way. Most recently against the Cubs where he gave up nine hits, three homers and six runs over five innings. He has five starts of one or zero runs allowed, and five with at least four runs allowed. This is only his third start at home and he’s been very good in both outings: 11 innings, six hits and one earned run. Mahle tossed six scoreless innings against the Dodgers on May 18th, so he can definitely shut down the Nationals. The upside is there, but the contact rate is high (78%) and the hard-hit rate is high (40%). GPP option only, and one I can get behind most nights, but I’m hesitant in this matchup.

Batter Breakdown: The Nationals finally broke out by scoring 14 runs in their last game and DraftKings has priced their players like they’ve been scoring 14 every night. I’m not there yet, but Victor Robles, Juan Soto and Adam Eaton provide a bit of a discount on FD.

Eugenio Suarez is a GPP option and a great one on FanDuel as he has terrific upside vs LHP.

Detroit Tigers (3.8) @ Atlanta Braves (5.3)

Spencer Turnbull (RHP) @ Mike Foltynewicz (RHP)

Over/Under: Moneyline: ATL -178

Pitcher Breakdown: Mike Foltynewicz has put together two strong showings in a row and it has me intrigued. After allowing 26 hits, 19 runs, eight homers and eight walks over his first 21.1 innings, Folty has surrendered just eight hits and two runs with zero walks in his past two starts. He allowed three hits over six against Milwaukee and followed it up by giving up just one unearned run through six in St. Louis. He didn’t allow a home run or a walk in that outing against the Cardinals and he struck out seven. The price is right as is the matchup against Detroit who enters with the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball. There’s risk, but the upside is there.

Spencer Turnbull has been decent this season as he enters with a 2.97 ERA, but he’s been walking guys and getting a tad lucky, which is suggested by his 4.39 xFIP. Turnbull has allowed a bomb in four straight starts and seven runs in his past two showings.

Batter Breakdown: I don’t love a Braves stack, but I really like them on the money line. I think the offense can do enough for Foltynewicz as the Braves are one of my favorite picks tonight. Austin Riley is still one of the better plays on FD, and there’s some value on DK with Josh Donaldson and Nick Markakis. They are more tournament plays as guys like Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman and Riley are a bit safer.

Kansas City Royals (5.3) @ Texas Rangers (5.4)

Danny Duffy (LHP) @ Ariel Jurado (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: TEX -115

Pitcher Breakdown: Danny Duffy has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his past five outings this season, but he only has 27 punch-outs in 34.2 innings. Texas seems like a good matchup for him when you see the batter breakdown below, but he allowed seven hits and four runs in five innings against them earlier in the season – which was his worst start of the year. Typically, it’s been RHB who have given Duffy most of his problems.

Batter Breakdown: I can’t get behind the Royals on DK, but Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield have great price tags on FD. Jorge Soler needs a heat check as he’s homered in back-to-back games to give him 14 on the season.

I’m usually hesitant to roster TEX bats against lefties as they enter with the second-highest strikeout rate against southpaws and their .230 average ranks 23rd. Hunter Pence is rocking a .288 average, .376 wOBA and he’s tied with Joey Gallo for the team high in homers (4) against LHP. Vegas is telling us that runs will be scored in this game.

Cleveland Indians (5.7) @ Chicago White Sox (4.4)

Trevor Bauer (RHP) @ Dylan Covey (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: CWS +156

Pitcher Breakdown: Call me crazy after seeing Carlos Carrasco blow up in my face, but I’m going back to another struggling Cleveland pitcher, this time Trevor Bauer. He’s a much better play on DK where you’re getting a bit of a discount. I think the 10 homers and 36 walks in 12 starts will make people shy away from him. He still has a solid 10.33 K/9 and the White Sox’s enter with the third-highest K-Rate. He’s still a tournament play only, though.

Dylan Covey checks in with a 13:18 K:BB ratio over 26.1 innings. He’s allowed 18 runs and five homers over that span. It’s a bad sign when you have more walks than strikeouts. It’s also a bad sign when you have an 87 percent contact rate and 41 percent fly ball rate. His contact rate is the highest among starters with 25 innings.

Batter Breakdown: Both right-handed bats (.340 wOBA) and left-handed bats (.352 wOBA) have crushed Covey over his career. The CLE stack didn’t work out yesterday, and it’s not one I trust in cash. Francisco Lindor has value on FD, and Jose Ramirez has value on both sites. Both have shown positive signs lately and I like the price of Jason Kipnis.

Chicago Cubs (4.3) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4.8)

Yu Darvish (RHP) @ Miles Mikolas (RHP)

Over/Under: Moneyline: STL -130

Pitcher Breakdown: You can’t trust Yu Darvish, let’s be honest, especially against St. Louis. Darvish has issued 38 walks, 33 runs, 51 hits and 11 homers in 55 innings. He’s too hot and cold, and it’s mostly been cold.

Miles Mikolas isn’t someone I trust either as he enters with a 4.76 ERA and 82 percent contact rate. Mikolas has given up 12 homers and four in his past two outings – one which lasted 1.1 innings.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed hitters have crushed Mikolas this season. They have eight homers with a .401 wOBA and a solid looking slash line: .303/.367/.596. Kyle Schwarber still provides a ton of value atop the order, especially on FD. He has five homers, 12 hits, 14 runs and 10 RBI in 14 games from the leadoff spot. Anthony Rizzo is definitely worth spending up for as I think the big hitters will show up in this contest.

Left-handed batters have also crushed Darvish this season, so consider Matt Carpenter who is back atop the oder. Kolten Wong and Dexter Fowler provide a price discount.

Toronto Blue Jays (4.5) @ Colorado Rockies (7.6)

Edwin Jackson (RHP) @ German Marquez (RHP)

Over/Under: 12 Moneyline: COL -270

Pitcher Breakdown: Poor Edwin Jackson who has to take his 9.00 ERA into Colorado tonight. Jackson has given up 20 hits, 14 runs and five homers in 14 innings. He has an 83 percent contact rate and 41 percent hard-hit rate over that span.

German Marquez is one of my favorite arms on the board and I have no problem taking a shot on him, despite the game being in Colorado. The offense in Toronto is not great and they have the fifth-highest K-Rate in baseball. Marquez has three outings at Coors Field this season where he’s allowed one or zero runs, including a complete game shutout. He also has 76 strikeouts and 14 walks in 781. innings, which is a strong ratio.

Batter Breakdown: I’m not sure I’ve seen team implied total of 7.6 this season and it was 7.2 first thing this morning. The Colorado chalk will be real, but that’s OK. There’s really too much value and upside to ignore on FD with Daniel Murphy, David Dahl and Ian Desmond. The struggles with those three have been real, so maybe that will lower the ownership.

New York Mets (4.7) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (4.4)

Zack Wheeler (RHP) @ Jon Duplantier (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: ARI +100

Pitcher Breakdown: Zack Wheeler is way too expensive and he’s been too inconsistent for him to be your only pitcher on FanDuel. The Mets’ righty has allowed 12 runs and four homers in his past three starts. He also has a 4.94 ERA over 31 innings on the road.

Jon Duplantier will be making his first MLB start as he enters with 12 big league innings on his resume. Duplantier has 12 strikeouts over that span and racked up 19 over 17 AAA innings this season, but he’s unlikely to go deep into this game. There’s also some cause for concern as he’s walked 41 batters in his last 84 minor league innings.

Batter Breakdown: I hardly feel comfortable suggesting these expensive NYM bats which have been hit or miss lately. Michael Conforto‘s price is through the roof on DraftKings, but there’s a big difference on FanDuel, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. Todd Frazier and Carlos Gomez are two punt options to think about in tournaments.

Houston Astros (4.5) @ Oakland Athletics (4.1)

Brad Peacock (RHP) @ Mike Fiers (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: OAK +116

Pitcher Breakdown: Brad Peacock has only allowed one run in his last four starts (23 innings). He comes in having tossed back-t0-back scoreless outings against the Red Sox and White Sox. Things didn’t go all that well for him against Oakland earlier in the year, though, as he coughed up five runs on seven hits over five innings. The A’s are a hard team to pick on as they have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball and they’ve been much better lately as they start to get healthy. It’s the reason Peacock is a fade for me.

Mike Fiers‘ 85 percent contact rate is the second-highest mark in baseball. He’s surrendered 12 homers and he only has 44 strikeouts in 63 innings. He’s an easy pass.

Batter Breakdown: Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley have home run potential despite the game being in OAK. Tyler White hasn’t backed up last year’s strong second-half, but he has power.

Right-handed batters are hitting .156 against Peacock while lefties are hitting .245 with a .315 wOBA. It’s not the best, but it’s much better than the .209 wOBA for RHB. Matt Olson‘s price on FanDuel ($3.1) is an absolute disgrace. There’s so much value on the A’s and I’m willing to take shots with them in tournaments, at least with Olson.

Los Angeles Angels (5.1) @ Seattle Mariners (4.5)

Tyler Skaggs (LHP) @ Mike Leake (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: SEA +123

Pitcher Breakdown: Tyler Skaggs has only completed six innings once in his past seven starts as he’s walked at least two in six straight. He’s not the strongest option, but he has a higher ceiling than Mike Leake. The Mariners’ pitcher has the fourth-highest contact rate (83%) and we’ve seen the Angels run total rise from 4.2 to 5.1 since this morning.

Batter Breakdown: Mike Trout returned to the lineup yesterday and he picked up two hits and three RBI. Watching yesterday, it’s clear his cold streak is likely over and he’s a good bet to make some hard contact against Leake. The LAA stack isn’t appealing, but there’s some value throughout the lineup with Shohei Ohtani and Kole Calhoun.

The catcher position is usually pretty ugly, but Omar Narvarez enters with a .333 average and team-high .426 wOBA vs LHP.

Miami Marlins (3.1) @ San Diego Padres (4)

Caleb Smith (LHP) @ Joey Lucchesi (LHP)

Over/Under:Moneyline: SD -160

Pitcher Breakdown: Caleb Smith has more upside than Joey Lucchesi due to the high strikeout rate and matchup against the Padres. SD has the fourth-highest K-Rate against left-handed pitchers, so Smith will punch a few out for you, it’s just when you’re deciding between pitchers in this price range, we have to split hairs with the chance of a win. It seems unlikely that Miami can do enough for him, which makes me lean under with the total.

Batter Breakdown: Manny Machado and Hunter Renfroe are two bats I have my eye on this evening as Smith has allowed a home run in six straight starts thanks to a 47 percent fly ball rate on the year. Machado has a team-high .603 wOBA and six homers vs LHP. Renfroe has a career .280 average and .380 wOBA against lefties.

Philadelphia Phillies (4.1) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (5)

Jake Arrieta (RHP) @ Kenta Maeda (RHP)

Over/Under: Moneyline: LAD -167

Pitcher Breakdown: Jake Arrieta has been decent this season, but he enters with an 81 percent contact rate and that’s a red flag for me. He only has 59 strikeouts through 70 innings.

Kenta Maeda has a higher ceiling due to his 10 K/9 and 1.38 ERA over 26 home innings. Opponents are hitting .146 against Maeda at home, but this Phillies team makes a lot of contact and the ceiling is high. Bottom line, Maeda is too expensive on DK and he should only be considered on FD if you’re playing the late slate.

Batter Breakdown: The Dodgers stack on FD has been a theme this season. There’s just too much of a discount with Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson. Seager is hitting in the three-spot.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Chris Sale

Best Value Pitchers: German Marquez, Trevor Bauer (DK) & Mike Foltynewicz

Pitchers I’m feeling: Trevor Bauer, Mike Foltynewicz, Chris Sale & German Marquez

Contrarian GPP options: German Marquez & Jose Berrios

Pitchers to fade: Patrick Corbin & Kenta Maeda

Best Overall Hitters: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Yelich, Jorge Polanco, Austin Meadows, Anthony Rendon, Eugenio Suarez, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Elvis Andrus, Francisco Lindor, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper & Cody Bellinger

Best value Hitters (DK): Steve Pearce, Buster Posey, Hanser Alberto, Keston Hiura, Marwin Gonzalez, Nick Markakis, Nicky Lopez, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Kyle Schwarber, Kolten Wong, Todd Frazier, Derek Fisher, Tyler White, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Shohei Ohtani, Albert Pujols, Harold Ramirez, Manny Machado & Corey Seager

Best value Hitters (FD): Andrew Benintendi, Steve Pearce, Buster Posey, Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Keston Hiura, Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop, Howie Kendrick, Josh Donaldson, Nicky Lopez, Adalberto Mondesi, Elvis Andrus, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Kyle Schwarber, Paul Goldschmidt, Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond, Todd Frazier, Derek Fisher, Tyler White, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Cahloun, Harold Ramirez, Manny Machado & Corey Seager

Home Run Call of the Day: J.D. Martinez

Others HR calls to consider: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Renato Nunez, Christian Yelich, Josh Bell, Eugenio Suarez, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Carpenter, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, Matt Olson, Mike Trout, Manny Machado & Hunter Renfroe

Stack ranks: COL, BOS, MIL, CHC & STL

Underrated stack: CLE, LAD, MIN & BAL

Stacks to fade: WSH & TEX

Bet of the Day: ATL -178

Others to consider: BOS -152, MIL -129, WAS -117, MIN +110 & CLE -169

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