MLB DFS Breakdown | Joc Pederson poised to add to HR totals vs RHP

MLB DFS Breakdown | Joc Pederson poised to add to HR totals vs RHP

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we go looking for power with Joc Pederson, David Peralta and Anthony Rendon.

Arizona Diamondbacks (4.4) @ Philadelphia Phillies (5.2)

Taylor Clarke (RHP) @ Jerad Eickhoff (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: PHI -141

Pitcher Breakdown: Taylor Clarke has a 15:7 K:BB ratio over 22.1 innings and he’s allowed 11 runs on 21 hits. He checks in with an 83 percent contact rate.

Jerad Eickhoff enters tonight on a five-game home run streak in which he’s given up 11 bombs. The Phillies’ pitcher has allowed 20 runs in his past five starts (24.1 IP). He checks in with a 45 FB% and 42 HH%.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed bats have a .594 SLG, .384 wOBA and 52 HH% (highest in MLB) against Eickhoff. Give me all the David Peralta, who has a .394 wOBA and .326 AVG vs RHP. Seven of his eight homers have come against righties as well. Even last season, Peralta hit .318 with a 398 wOBA and cashed in with 22 home runs against RHP.

Lefties have a .500 SLG and .371 wOBA against Clarke, so you may want to dial up Bryce Harper. Jay Bruce has been on a heck of a run since getting traded to Philly and he’s reasonably cheap on FD. Unfortunately, he’s a fade on DK to his $5.5K price tag.

*It’s looking more and more likely this game could be rained out so avoid it in cash.

Oakland Athletics (3.7) @ Tampa Bay Rays (5.4)

Tanner Anderson (RHP) @ Charlie Morton (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: TB -225

Pitcher Breakdown: Tanner Anderson is scheduled to make his first MLB start and he has no fantasy appeal, despite the cheap price tag. Anderson has 11.1 innings on the resume – all out of the bullpen for the Pirates last season – and he gave up 15 hits, eight runs and eight walks. This season over 54.2 Triple-A innings, Anderson has allowed 38 runs, 14 homers and 26 walks, with only 37 punch-outs.

Charlie Morton lowered his ERA to 2.30 after eight shutout innings against the Tigers last week. Morton has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 13 starts this season and he enters with 91 strikeouts over 74.1 innings. Right-handed batters are only hitting .180 against him and 17 of the 19 runs he’s allowed have come to left-handed hitters. He’s a solid pivot from the arms at the top, but he has the toughest matchup of the three stud pitchers. He’ll likely come with the lowest ownership of the three.

Batter Breakdown: Stacking A’s should be considered a tournament move as they are cheap and will likely get overlooked. I myself like Morton, but I can get behind Matt Olson and Khris Davis‘ price on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Austin Meadows‘ .362 average and .394 wOBA vs RHP both rank third in the bigs. Avisail Garcia is hitting .320 against righties so make sure he’s in your TB stack. Honestly, you can fit in Meadows, Tommy Pham, Garcia and Ji-Man Choi pretty easily on FD.

St. Louis Cardinals (4.6) @ Miami Marlins (4)

Michael Wacha (RHP) @ Sandy Alcantara (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: MIA +125

Pitcher Breakdown: This will be Michael Wacha‘s first start since May 22nd when he allowed six runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings against KC. Wacha has been awful this season as he’s allowed 35 runs, 12 homers and 32 walks over 50 innings. He pitched one inning out of the pen on May 29th (his second last appearance), and he gave up six runs, three homers, three walks and five hits in one inning.

Sandy Alcantara has allowed one or zero runs in three of his past four starts, but he doesn’t have the highest ceiling. The Marlins’ pitcher has a poor 46:32 K:BB ratio over 71 innings. He has been much better at home and the Cardinals rank last in wOBA over the last two weeks. Over that span, STL ranks 29th in wRC+, 28th in average and they have the second-highest strikeout rate. That said, Alcantara is not for me.

Batter Breakdown: There’s a slight discount on Paul Goldschmidt on both sites. It’s not a stack I feel strongly about, but it’s one that will go unowned if you’re looking to be different on this small slate.

Right-handed batters are slashing .316/.400/.624 with a .417 wOBA against Wacha. This may be the time to jump on a couple of MIA bats like Harold Ramirez, Garret Cooper and Brian Anderson. Austin Dean is interesting as the Marlins’ leadoff hitter as well.

Texas Rangers (2.9) @ Boston Red Sox (4.7)

Mike Minor (LHP) @ Chris Sale (LHP)

Over/Under: 7.5  Moneyline: BOS -250

Pitcher Breakdown: Mike Minor has allowed three or fewer runs in eight straight starts and 11 of his 13 outings this season. He has a rock solid 87:26 K:BB ratio over his 81.1 innings and he checks in with a 2.55 ERA. Believe it or not, things have been slightly worse for him on the road (3.00 ERA) compared to at home (2.18 ERA). He’s in a tough spot tonight, though, having to go up against Chris Sale and the Red Sox, who hit lefties well.

Sale has double-digit strikeouts in seven of his past nine starts and 110 in 77.1 innings. He’s allowed a home run in seven of his past 10 starts, but he’s been much better lately (two or fewer runs in seven of last nine). The Rangers rank fourth overall in strikeout percentage (24.8%) and fourth against southpaws (26.4%).

Batter Breakdown: Hunter Pence has a .302 average and five homers against LHP, but this is a lineup I’ll be staying clear of. There are a lot of lefties in Texas’ lineup who will have their hands full vs Sale.

J.D. Martinez has a league-high .507 wOBA against lefties (.360 AVG & 5 HR). Xander Bogaerts has a .309 average, five homers and a .431 wOBA (14th best).

Pittsburgh Pirates (4.4) @ Atlanta Braves (5.2)

Joe Musgrove (RHP) @ Kevin Gausman (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5  Moneyline: ATL -150

Pitcher Breakdown: So, if you want to get some exposure to heavy hitters on DraftKings tonight, you’ll have to take a stars-and-scrubs approach with either Joe Musgrove or Kevin Gausman. I don’t trust either really, especially as a stand-alone pitcher on FD, but you can make a case for pairing one up with Chris Sale or Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Musgrove is basically free, but I have too much respect for the Braves lineup. Plus, he’s allowed 26 hits, 14 runs and five homers in his last three starts. Things haven’t been better for Gausman as he’s given up 20 hits and 15 runs in his past two outings. Gausman has the better matchup and the better chance at a win. I also believe most will roster Musgrove, so I’ll roll the dice on Gausman. I think it’s smart to try lineups with both.

Batter Breakdown: You should definitely get some exposure to both offenses here as well. Ronald Acuna Jr. has three home runs in his last five games and Freddie Freeman has three bombs in his last six contests.

Despite trying to make a case for Gausman, PIT makes for a cheap underrated stack. Bryan Reynolds picked up a hit in all six of his games last week and he had three multi-hit games over that span. He’s now hitting in the two spot thanks to a .352/.405/.552 slash line.

Washington Nationals (5.9) @ Chicago White Sox (4.7)

Anibal Sanchez (RHP) @ Odrisamer Despaigne (RHP)

Over/Under: 10.5  Moneyline: CWS +138

Pitcher Breakdown: I’d consider Anibal Sanchez if he wasn’t so expensive, but he is. That said, he’s coming off an outing against these same White Sox where he fanned seven over 5.1 innings. He only allowed one run on four hits and he spun six scoreless innings against the Braves in his previous start. He also had seven punch-outs in that performance. The White Sox have the third-highest K-Rate (26%), so there’s a chance he could rack up a few more this evening.

Odrisamer Despaigne has an 84 percent contact rate for his career and he hasn’t started a game in the majors since 2018. He had 39 innings that season and coughed up 29 runs on 52 hits, while only striking out 35.

Batter Breakdown: Anthony Rendon enters with a .321 AVG, 8 HR and .431 wOBA vs RHP. He’s a must. The Nationals are a strong stack to consider and one you can easily pair with Sale/Ryu on FD. Howie Kendrick is dirt cheap over there, which will allow you to roster Juan Soto and Trea Turner.

I’ve been suggesting Eloy Jimenez for a bit now and it’s finally starting to pay off. He extended his hit streak to five games Sunday and has homered in back-to-back games. The rookie has reached base in nine of his last 10 games. He’s a great home run candidate as is Yoan Moncada.

Chicago Cubs (5.3) @ Colorado Rockies (5.9)

Yu Darvish (RHP) @ German Marquez (RHP)

Over/Under: 11  Moneyline: COL -129

Pitcher Breakdown: Yu Darvish has been much better lately (two or fewer runs in four of his past six starts), but he’s still walking guys. He has 44 walks in 66.1 innings and at least three in eight of his past 10 starts.

German Marquez has a higher ceiling, but the Cubs just got to him in his previous start which came in Chicago. The Cubs scored eight runs on seven hits over 5.1 innings. Marquez also has a 4.93 ERA at home compared to a 3.33 mark on the road. It’s a big-time contrarian move, but a tough one to get behind.

Batter Breakdown: There really should be some runs scored in this game and there’s a bit of value to attack: Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Gonzalez and David Dahl. Schwarber enters the week on a seven-game hit streak in which he has two homers, six RBI and six runs. He has four multi-hit games over that span. Dahl saw his nine-game hit streak snap on Saturday, but he’s hitting .330 on the season. He has 11 runs and 11 RBI in his past 10 games. Cargo has at least a hit in three of his five games with Chicago, including a home run. He has also scored runs in four of his five contests.

Los Angeles Dodgers (5.1) @ Los Angeles Angels (4)

Hyun-jin Ryu (LHP) @ Griffin Canning (RHP)

Over/Under:Moneyline: LAA +155

Pitcher Breakdown: Hyun-jin Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in his 12 starts and he comes in having allowed only two runs in his past six outings (44.2 IP). Yeah, he has a 1.35 ERA on the season and he’s allowed five or fewer hits in eight of his 12 outings. He’s also gone at least six innings in eight straight starts. The Angels struggled this past weekend against LHP’s Marco Gonzales and Wade LeBlanc.

Griffin Canning has a decent K:BB ratio (42:10) over 38.1 innings, but he’s allowed seven homers in seven starts. That’s what a 47 FB% will get you.

Batter Breakdown: You should definitely consider LAD tonight against Canning. Cody Bellinger has crushed RHP (.381 AVG, 13 HR & .481 wOBA). Justin Turner ranks fourth in average (.354) and 27th in wOBA (.392) vs RHP. Joc Pederson leads baseball with 18 home runs against RHP (.430 wOBA). Corey Seager has seen his price jump up a bit thanks to seven-game hit streak, but he’s still very easy on the wallet considering his upside. He has four multi-hit games over this current run, including a 4-for-5 night.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Chris Sale

Best Value Pitchers: Jose Musgrove & Kevin Gausman

Pitchers I’m feeling: Chris Sale, Hyun-jin Ryu, Charlie Morton & Kevin Gausman (I know)

Contrarian GPP options: German Marquez & Kevin Gausman

Pitchers to fade: Yu Darvish & Mike Minor

Best Overall Hitters: Gary Sanchez, David Peralta, Bryce Harper, Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rendon, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner & Mike Trout

Best value Hitters (DK): Jeff McNeil, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Harold Ramirez, Brian Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Turner & Corey Seager

Best value Hitters (FD): Jeff McNeil, Todd Frazier, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius, David Peralta, Jay Bruce, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Tommy Pham, Avisail Garcia, Ji-Man Choi, Paul Goldschmidt, Harold Ramirez, Brian Anderson, Garrett Cooper, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Bryan Reynolds, Josh Donaldson, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick, Brian Dozier, Eloy Jimenez, Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner & Corey Seager

Home Run Call of the Day: Joc Pederson

Others HR calls to consider: Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, David Peralta, Bryce Harper, Austin Meadows, Avisail Garcia, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Javier Baez, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story & Cody Bellinger

Stack ranks: LAD, COL, CHC, WAS & ATL

Underrated stack: TB, STL, MIA, & ARI

Bet of the Day: LAD -175

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