MLB DFS Breakdown I The Diamondbacks ready to tee off against left-handed pitching

MLB DFS Breakdown I The Diamondbacks ready to tee off against left-handed pitching

Sunday afternoon is jam-packed with plenty of baseball and an opportunity to roster some teams in solid MLB DFS matchups. The Diamondbacks draw a very favorable matchup against the Blue Jays who’ll be sending lefty Clayton Richard to the mound. Being one of the best hitting clubs against lefties, we’ll be focusing on them amongst others for this afternoon.

Tampa Bay Rays (4.4) @ Boston Red Sox (4.1)

Blake Snell (LHP) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

Over/Under: 9   Moneyline: Rays -120

Pitcher Breakdown:  What came to mind first was how high the run total is for the Red Sox against Snell. Sure, he hasn’t been as good on the road compared to at home but he still has a .297 wOBA and a 2.59 xFIP through 32 road innings. The Red Sox aren’t anything special at home against lefties either and have a .308 wOBA and .172 ISO. Honestly, I think it depends on how you feel in this spot for Snell, who was wrecked in his last start against the Tigers for six runs on seven hits through 4 1/3 innings. Personally, my exposure will be minimal.

The Rays have been a decent team on the road against lefties, owners of a .317 wOBA and a .136 ISO. Rodriguez has been excellent at Fenway and has a .258 wOBA with a 3.02 xFIP. I like him a lot as a mid-tier option and he has some good K upside in this matchup.

Hitter Breakdown:  Avisail Garcia is my favorite option for the Rays in this game. He’s quietly compiled a .343 wOBA and a .270 ISO against lefties. Yandy Diaz is very much in play. Xander Bogaerts also has a ton of power in this matchup with a .364 ISO and a .431 ISO. Don’t forget about Christian Vazquez either. When he’s been hitting, it’s been against lefties.

Cincinnati Reds (4) @ Philadelphia Phillies (4.6)

Sonny Gray (RHP) vs. Aaron Nola (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Phillies -135

Pitcher Breakdown: I think this is a decent spot for Gray at Citizens Bank Park. On the road, he has a .255 wOBA with a 3.14 xFIP. The Phillies are a stronger team against lefties but still have some good power at home against righties with a .197 ISO. Gray is more of a GPP play than a cash play.

I think we should have legitimate concerns about Nola against the Reds. They can put a lot of lefties in this lineup and that’s been the kryptonite to Nola.  On the year, he’s allowed an overall .408 wOBA to lefties with a 4.34 xFIP and six of his 11 home runs. Yesterday featured five lefties in the Reds lineup and if they’re looking to do the same today, I’ll be steering clear.

Hitter Breakdown: Of course, the best lefty to target on the Reds is Derek Dietrich who has six of his 17 home runs on the road against righties with a .361 wOBA and a .297 ISO. Joey Votto and Jesse Winker are in consideration. For the Phillies, I won’t be going out of my way to get many of these bats in my lineup. Scott Kingery would be someone to consider with his .410 wOBA and .246 ISO against righties. Jay Bruce doesn’t have the best matchup but this man can’t be stopped right now.

Arizona Diamondbacks (5) @ Toronto Blue Jays (4.1)

Robbie Ray (RHP) vs. Clayton Richard (LHP)

Over/Under: 9   Moneyline: Diamondbacks -145

Pitcher Breakdown:  Ray is one of the most maddening pitchers you can take on a nightly basis but his strikeout upside always suckers us back in. Naturally, he’s in yet another strong strikeout upside game against the Blue Jays, who have a 25.1 K%, the seventh highest in the league. While Ray doesn’t go deep into games, he can legitimately still score you some really high fantasy points. You’ll just be sweating bullets the entire time. As for Richard, I never, ever play lefties against the Diamondbacks. Don’t bother.

Hitter Breakdown:   The Diamondbacks have to be considered one of the best stacks on this slate. On the road against lefties, they have the highest wOBA and ISO at .373 and .244. We have so many guys to consider that making a stack ends up becoming a bit difficult. Eduardo Escobar and Ketel Marte are locked for your stack so make sure to start with that. After them, Nick Ahmed, Carson Kelly and Ildermo Vargas are all in the mix. Truly, this is the type of matchup you don’t want to miss out on.

The Blue Jays I’m not really interested in at all. The only players I’d have any interest in would be Justin Smoak and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out of the lineup. Aside from that, you can easily keep these guys on the board.

New York Yankees (4.8) @ Cleveland Indians (5.3)

Chad Green (RHP) vs. Shane Bieber (RHP)

Over/Under: n/a   Moneyline: n/a

Pitcher Breakdown:  The Yankees are rolling out a bullpen game with Green set to open. He’s not an option by any means as he’s yet to see more than two innings the entire season. Bieber has been his best at home where he has a .287 wOBA and a 2.87 xFIP. As always, lefties are hitting him much harder than righties, which will put the spotlight on some of these Yankees bats. Overall, I like Bieber in this spot although his salary on DK makes it tough.

Hitter Breakdown: Aaron Hicks is one of my favorite options on the Yankees in this game. Against righties, Hicks has quickly posted a .358 wOBA and a .273 ISO. It’s not currently clear who is coming on after Green, which makes it tough to consider some of these Indians bats. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are switch hitters so that makes it easy enough. Aside from that, I’m not interested in taking a chance with anyone else.

Minnesota Twins (5.8) @ Detroit Tigers (3.8)

Jake Odorizzi (RHP) vs. Ryan Carpenter (LHP)

Over/Under: 9  Moneyline: Twins -230

Pitcher Breakdown:  Odorizzi is the only option in this game. You don’t use lefties against the Diamondbacks and you don’t use lefties against the Twins. Odorizzi has already shutout this Tigers team, throwing seven innings and striking out five almost a month to the day. Against this weak hitting Tigers club, Odorizzi should be considered one of the top options today despite the high salary. On the road, Odorizzi has a .260 wOBA with a 4.60 xFIP.

Hitter Breakdown:  I’m going to keep nailing this into your heads until it becomes automatic. When a lefty is on the mound against the Twins, C.J. Cron is your guy at first base. He has a ridiculous .479 wOBA with a .420 ISO. Mitch Garver is right there with him with a .497 wOBA and a .300 ISO. After that, you truly can mix and match a number of guys including Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano.

I’m not crazy about the Tigers bats in this matchup but I think we do have a couple to consider. JaCoby Jones is coming off a huge game yesterday and has a .337 wOBA and a .229 ISO against righties.

Atlanta Braves (4.1) @ Miami Marlins (3.5)

Max Fried (LHP) vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP)

Over/Under: 8  Moneyline: Braves -135

Pitcher Breakdown:   Fried left a bad taste in our mouths his last time out against the Pirates. After torturing the Brewers, the Marlins have now scored just two runs over their last three games. I think we can go back to Fried in this spot, especially with how low his salary has dropped. Overall against lefties, the Marlins have a .276 wOBA with a .119 ISO and a 19.6 K%.

Lopez has quickly become someone to use only at Marlins Park. His splits are insanely different and he currently sports a .209 wOBA and a 3.38 xFIP. The Braves are a tough lineup to face but I have to also respect when Lopez has done at Marlins Park. The Braves have a .329 wOBA and a .178 ISO against righties this season.

Hitter Breakdown:  I’m not crazy about hitters in this game. I really think this could be a nice bounce-back spot for Fried and I think Lopez can continue pitching well at Marlins Park. If you want to target the Braves, I get it, but I won’t be doing so.

Colorado Rockies (3.6) @ New York Mets (4.5)

Jeff Hoffman (RHP) vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Mets -190

Pitcher Breakdown:  Hoffman has had some decent games in back-to-back starts now but I still can’t see myself using him. It’s hard to gauge his numbers since he only has one start away from Coors Field. Against righties, the Mets have a .329 wOBA with a .178 ISO and a 22 K%. As for Syndergaard, I realize the Rockies are one of the worst hitting teams on the road but can you actually trust to use him? His numbers at home tend us to believe he’s been more unlucky than anything but I still want no part of him. His salary needs to continue to fall for me to consider him.

Hitter Breakdown: Trevor Story is going to be an option until he cools off a bit regardless of the matchup. Of his 17 hits over his last 10 games, seven have gone for extra bases with two home runs, a triple and seven doubles. He’s completely locked in right now. Charlie Blackmon is the other Rox bat I’m looking to feature in my lineups. On the Mets, I wouldn’t really mind any type of stack here. In his short time pitching so far, righties have tagged him with a .440 wOBA and a 5.12 xFIP. Peter Alonso would be my favorite option of the Mets.

Pittsburgh Pirates (4) @ Milwaukee Brewers (5.7)

Steven Brault (LHP) vs. Chase Anderson (RHP)

Over/Under: 10   Moneyline: Brewers -160

Pitcher Breakdown:  It’s honestly comical to me that Brault continues to start for the Pirates. Aside from one good start against the Reds, he’s been a complete disaster on the mound. The Brewers are one of the best clubs against lefties and sport a .340 wOBA and a .220 ISO. I wouldn’t touch Brault today.

Anderson has been getting hammered by righties since he’s returned and has quickly posted a .391 wOBA with a 4.39 xFIP. To their credit, the Pirates have been one of the better hitting ballclubs over the past week and have a .333 wOBA and a .205 ISO in that span. I think this game has a real good chance of hitting the over on its total. You can watch the line movement with our tool, here!

Hitter Breakdown: Righties have smashed Brault overall and especially on the road. He sports a .392 wOBA and a 6.60 xFIP on the road, making this a nightmare matchup for him. Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Yasmani Grandal are all in a huge spot here today. I wouldn’t even mind taking some lefties either, as I imagine Brault will be out of this game quickly. Christian Yelich and Mike Moustakas are still very much in the mix for stacking.

The Pirates have a lot of lefties in their lineup so I’ll mainly focus on Starling Marte. On the road against righties, Marte has a .370 wOBA and a .205 ISO, making him my favorite bat to target for the Pirates in this game. Josh Bell is always in the mix despite mainly batting from the left side in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles (3.6) @ Houston Astros (5)

Dylan Bundy (RHP) vs. Wade Miley (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Astros -195

Pitcher Breakdown:  So everyone is always trying to stack against Bundy but when was the last time he really had a poor start? You may be shocked to know that the last time he allowed more than three runs was back on April 28th against the Twins. Since then, it’s either been three runs or no runs allowed in six straight. I wouldn’t say this Astros team is currently crushing the ball either so if anything, I actually like using Bundy today. I would only do it in tournaments but I think the “Astros” matchup instantly scare people off.

Miley isn’t the sexiest name to roster but he’s been usable as of late. Sure, he’ll likely give up at least one home run, as he’s done in 11 straight starts but he’s been good otherwise. This Orioles team isn’t great against lefties and currently has a .314 wOBA and a .174 ISO with a 26.2 K% against them. I think this game has a real sneaky chance of being a low scoring affair but the Orioles bullpen always makes that difficult to predict.

Hitter Breakdown:  If the Orioles are facing a lefty, Pedro Severino gets the ol’ lock button for me. In these matchups, Severino owns a .468 wOBA with a .386 ISO. With the way Miley gives up home runs, I would strongly recommend using him. Renato Nunez is another option to consider as he currently has a .397 wOBA and a .329 ISO against lefties.

The Astros I’m not really high on here. I get that the Orioles bullpen can bring plenty of fantasy goodness but I think we have enough on this slate overall that I don’t have to go out of my way for these bats. If you did want a piece, I would look at the lefties like Derek Fisher or Josh Reddick. 

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