MLB DFS Breakdown – How can we fit in Yankees? – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Breakdown – How can we fit in Yankees? – The Quant Edge

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we target value to pair up with Yankees’ bats such as Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez.

New Yorks Mets (4.8) @ Philadelphia Phillies (5.3)

Steven Matz (LHP) @ Zach Eflin (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: PHI -135

Pitcher Breakdown: Steven Matz has coughed up 15 homers this season and at least one in 11 of his 14 starts, and six in his past five outings. That said, I think there’s an opportunity here to jump on some value on a small slate as the Phillies enter with a seven-game losing streak. They’ve lost 11 of 13 and rank 29th in runs over the last two weeks. Over that span, they have a .230 average (28th) and .304 wOBA (22nd).

Zach Eflin enters with an 80 percent contact rate, 35 percent hard-hit rate and 40 percent fly ball rate. He doesn’t miss enough bats (73K in 86 IP), and he’s allowed 11 homers in his past 13 starts. I just can’t get on board with his price.

Batter Breakdown: LHB have eight of the 11 homers Eflin has allowed this season. Jeff McNeil has a .335 average over his first 511 PAs in the bigs dating back to last season. He’s been hot and maybe you consider lefties Robinson Cano and Michael Conforto. Playing Peter Alonso in tournaments goes without saying at this point. He’s been better against LHP, though.

Left-handed bats are slashing .328/.397/.563 with a .401 wOBA against Matz. That said, 12 of the 13 homers have come courtesy RHB. Bryce Harper has hits in all four games since he’s moved into the leadoff spot and J.T. Realmuto is basically free on FanDuel. Rhys Hoskins anybody? The ownership has been low.

Toronto Blue Jays (4) @ New York Yankees (6.6)

Aaron Sanchez (RHP) @ CC Sabathia (LHP)

Over/Under: 10.5 Moneyline: NYY -250

Pitcher Breakdown: Aaron Sanchez has allowed 12 homers (six in his past four starts) and he enters with a 65:45 K:BB ratio over 78.2 innings. He’s walked at least two batters in each of his 16 starts and he’s given up 23 runs on 28 hits in his past 18.2 innings. He’s also issued 12 walks over that span.

Just like Matz, there’s some value with CC Sabathia, but he doesn’t have the same strikeout upside and he’s yet to pitch into the seventh inning this season. He may not get you a quality start, but he has a great chance to pick up the win should he get past the fifth. He may be able to get a few K’s as well considering Toronto ranks sixth in strikeout rate.

Batter Breakdown: The Yankees will be chalk for sure, but it’s basically impossible to get all their big boys in on DraftKings. You’ll have to pick and chose with a couple different options in tournaments, because they are going to score. They’ve homered in 26 straight games and their total keeps risking. Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez are two tournament options and there’s value in Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius and Gleyber Torres on both sites. You can fade pitching and easily stack NYY on FanDuel.

Chicago White Sox (3.9) @ Boston Red Sox (5.2)

Lucas Giolito (RHP) @ Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

Over/Under: 9   Moneyline: BOS -175

Pitcher Breakdown: I’m one of the few who doesn’t fully believe in Lucas Giolito. He’s been great, but he’s also had a cakewalk schedule. We’ve seen the Giolito of old over his last two starts which came against good teams (NYY & CHC): 7 ER, 4 HR and 7 BB. He’s way too expensive for my liking.

Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed two or fewer in three of his past four starts, but he’s served up six homers in those four outings and nine in his last six starts. The White Sox enter with a 25 K% which is the fourth-highest in baseball, so it’s possible E-Rod gets to seven strikeouts for the eighth time this season. It’s a GPP play only, but one that will allow you to spend up on bats. I can’t decide if it’s contrarian to play him at that price or stack against him. I’m leaning BOS bats if anything.

Batter Breakdown: Due to all the home runs Rodriguez has allowed, you’d be silly not to at least take a shot with Eloy Jimenez or Yoan Moncada.

Boston hasn’t hit their stride from last season and they’re coming off a series where they lost two of three to Toronto. I highly doubt many will be on them with Giolito on the hill, so don’t be surprised if they are low owned. Jackie Bradley Jr. is a cheap tournament bat to consider. You’ll need some value tonight.

Kansas City Royals (4.3) @ Cleveland Indians (5.9)

Brad Keller (RHP) @ Adam Plutko (RHP)

Over/Under: 10  Moneyline: CLE -171

Pitcher Breakdown: Brad Keller enters start number 17 with a 68:48 K:BB over 97 innings. He’s not someone to roster, he’s someone to pick on. He keeps the ball on the ground (50 GB%), but he checks in with a 81 percent contact rate.

Adam Plutko has only issued three walks in his first 27.2 innings, but he’s allowed 28 hits, 14 runs and nine homers. Plutko has coughed up a home run in all five of his outings thanks to a 49 percent fly ball rate.

Batter Breakdown: Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier have home run potential against Plutko as RHB have a .293/.305/.655 line against him. They also have a .391 wOBA.

The Indians should be able to make some contact against Keller and Vegas is giving them respect with their 5.7 team implied total. I’d take some shots in tournaments with Jose Ramirez (obviously), but you can feel better about Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis in cash. Kipnis hit in the cleanup spot Saturday and he’s very affordable on both sites, more so on FanDuel. He’s currently riding a six-game hits streak in which he has four multi-hit games and 10 RBI.

Atlanta Braves (5.7) @ Chicago Cubs (6.5)

Julio Teheran (RHP) @ Jon Lester (LHP)

Over/Under: 11.5  Moneyline: CHC -135

Pitcher Breakdown: If you can believe it, Julio Teheran has allowed one or zero runs in eight of his past nine starts. In fact, Teheran had only allowed four runs over 44.1 innings, before last week’s blow up against the Mets. He doesn’t have a ton of fantasy appeal, but think about fading the Cubs or at least taking ATL on the money line as they check in as road dogs. Chicago’s team total keeps rising despite ranking in the bottom 10 in average, wOBA and runs over the last two weeks. Their 25 K% over the last 30 days is the fourth-highest, and they fanned seven times in five innings against Teheran earlier this season.

Jon Lester has a 2.76 ERA over 42.1 home innings, but he’s in a tough spot. The price is right, but the matchup isn’t. The Braves have a league-high 104 runs, 102 RBI, 32 homers and .405 wOBA over the last two weeks.

Batter Breakdown: Ronald Acuna Jr. (27), Freddie Freeman (10), Josh Donaldson (12) and Ozzie Albies (13) are all top 30 fantasy players over the last two weeks. Remember when JD was slumping? Six homers and six multi-hit games in his past nine contests has put an end to that. FanDuel should take a look at the back of his baseball card because they’re basically giving him away for free. Austin Riley has the highest projected point total, according to our lineup optimizer, thanks to his unreal numbers vs LHP: .333 AVG, 5 HR, .512 wOBA & 50 HH%.

Right-handed bats are only hitting .198 against Teheran, so if you’re going to attack Cubs and their insane team implied total, it’s Anthony Rizzo (cash) and Kyle Schwarber (GPP). The 11.5 run total is the highest on the board, I just don’t know if the Cubs can do their part.

Los Angeles Dodgers (4.5) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (4.1)

Clayton Kershaw (LHP) @ Zack Greinke (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: ARI +118

Pitcher Breakdown: Clayton Kershaw vs Zack Greinke is the best pitching matchup on the slate. The strikeouts haven’t been there for Kershaw (8.32 K/9), but he has a solid 2.85 ERA and 1.59 BB/9. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in seven starts and 11 of 12. He’s also won six of his past eight outings.

Greinke has been pretty consistent as well, but with even fewer strikeouts (7.68 K/9). Greinke has an 87:14 K:BB ratio over 102 innings and he comes in with a 2.91 ERA. The lack of strikeouts are concerning, though, as he’s fanned three or fewer in three of his past four outings. The Dodgers’ 20 K% is the fourth-lowest in baseball. There’s some contrarian GPP appeal for Greinke given the price, but I’d rather spend my money on bats.

Batter Breakdown: If you’re going to attack this game from a tournament standpoint, it’s with guys like Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Those two have combined for 17 home runs against lefties this season and Marte should find himself back in the lineup. On the other side, it’s Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger. Those four have standalone value as each pitcher has struggled with solo shots this season. This has the makings of a 4-3 game.

Colorado Rockies (3.9) @ San Francisco Giants (3.7)

Jon Gray (RHP) @ Drew Pomeranz (LHP)

Over/Under: 7.5  Moneyline: SF +100

Pitcher Breakdown: Jon Gray is spitting out as one of the better values tonight due to his matchup in SF. Gray has a 3.47 ERA on the road compared to a 4.67 ERA at home, so getting out of Colorado is clearly good for his game. The Rockies’ pitcher has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his past seven starts and he enters with a 9.66 K/9.

Drew Pomeranz has had some decent showings this month, but he’s had some awful ones as well. He’s fresh off an outing against the Dodgers where he allowed seven runs and three homers in 4.1 innings. The Giants’ pitcher has surrendered at least five runs in four of his past seven outings. He’s been much worse on the road, but he’s still rocking a 4.21 ERA at home.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed hitters are slashing .318/.396/.594 with a .412 wOBA against Pomeranz. 12 of 14 bombs he’s given up have been against righties. Ian Desmond has moved up the order and his sporting a .344 average and .450 wOBA against LHP. Nolan Arenado has always crushed lefties and David Dahl checks in with a .351 average against southpaws. Stacking Rockies is an interesting tournament option, should you move away from NYY/ATL.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw

Best Value Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Matz & CC Sabathia

Pitchers I’m feeling: Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Matz, Jon Gray, Clayton Kershaw & CC Sabathia

Contrarian GPP option: Zack Greinke

Pitchers to fade: Lucas Giolito

Pitchers to pick on: Aaron Sanchez, Brad Keller & Drew Pomeranz

Best Overall Hitters: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Anthony Rizzo, Cody Bellinger & Nolan Arenado

Best value Hitters (DK): Robinson Cano, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jose Ramirez, Nick Markakis & Kyle Schwarber

Best value Hitters (FD): Jeff McNeil, Scott Kingery, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jorge Soler, Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Kyle Scharber, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Desmond & David Dahl

Home Run Call of the Day: Giancarlo Stanton

Others HR calls to consider: Aaron Judge, Edwin Encarnacion, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, J.D. Martinez, Anthony Rizzo, Joc Pederson, Eduardo Escobar, Nolan Arenado & Ian Desmond

Stack ranks: NYY, ATL, BOS & CLE

Underrated stack: COL, LAD, NYM, CWS & KC

Fades: PHI & CHC

Bet of the Day: ATL +117

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