MLB DFS Breakdown – GPP stacks to consider – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Breakdown – GPP stacks to consider – The Quant Edge

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we tackle underrated and cheap GPP stacks to consider, so you can spend up on pitching.

Chicago Cubs (5) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (4.6)

Kyle Hendricks (RHP) @ Joe Musgrove (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: PIT +109

Pitcher Breakdown: Kyle Hendricks will make his first start since June 14th, due to a shoulder injury. He doesn’t strike out enough batters to roster, plus he has a 5.49 ERA on the road compared to a 1.65 mark at home.

Joe Musgrove is one of the better punt plays at pitcher if you’re looking to get involved with big bats. Musgrove has only allowed one run in his past 13 innings, which includes a six-inning shutout performance in Houston. He also failed to allow an earned run in 6.1 innings in Chicago earlier this season.

Batter Breakdown: If you want to pick on Musgrove, do it with lefty bats like Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward, who had a great June. Schwarber and Heyward are solid values on FanDuel.

Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds have fantastic price tags on FanDuel as well. It’s hard to ignore Josh Bell right now.

Miami Marlins (3.7) @ Washington Nationals (5.4)

Zac Gallen (RHP) @ Patrick Corbin (LHP)

Over/Under: 9  Moneyline: WSH -213

Pitcher Breakdown: There’s a reason the Nationals are heavy favorites this evening as we just saw this matchup play out last week. Everyone wanted to roster the new shiny prospect in Zac Gallen and they completely ignored Patrick Corbin. Actually, if you read along here at TQE, you played Corbin and benefited from his second win of the season against Miami. Corbin fanned nine over seven innings, allowing one run on three hits. The Nationals’ pitcher has surrendered one run on seven hits over 16 innings vs MIA this season.

Now, I get it. The price difference is huge and Gallen did look decent in that outing against Washington. He struck out eight and has 14 punch-outs over 10 MLB innings. However, he’s walked four and he’s yet to pitch into the sixth. Miami will be cautious with Gallen here in the second half, so keep that in mind. I like the shot in tournaments, but I expect much of the same from Corbin in this rematch.

Batter Breakdown: The Nationals have a decent 5.4 team implied total, but there’s not a lot of value throughout their lineup. Adam Eaton and Ryan Zimmerman are worthy of GPP consideration. I don’t understand Howie Kendrick‘s $2.9K price tag.

Boston Red Sox (5.3) @ Toronto Blue Jays (4.3)

David Price (LHP) @ Trent Thornton (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5  Moneyline: TOR +135

Pitcher Breakdown: David Price is in a great spot and he’s easy on the wallet. This is a no brainer in my opinion. The Blue Jays have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the majors and they don’t have a ton of batters who hit lefties well, outside of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Eric Sogard.

I understand Trent Thornton had a decent showing in Boston where he fanned seven over 6.1 innings, but he still allowed eight hits and has given up at least seven hits in four of his past six starts. Thornton comes in with a 4.19 BB/9, 39 FB% and 38 HH%. He also has a 6.39 ERA at Rogers Centre compared to 3.60 on the road. Nine of the 13 homers he’s allowed have come in Toronto, and eight of them have been to lefties.

Batter Breakdown: I think Vegas and DraftKings are disrespecting Price and the Red Sox here. I think they should be bigger favorites and it’s possible they push closer to -170 come first pitch, so jump on them now. I’m looking at fly ball hitters like J.D. Martinez, but I want lefties Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi, despite his struggles. He’s affordable and will go low owned. Jackie Bradley fits the bill too.

As mentioned above, Gurriel and Sogard are decent plays if you want to go against Price. Gurriel is a lot easier to fit in over at FanDuel and he has a league-high 14 homers since his return on May 24th. His .457 wOBA and 192 wRC+ vs LHP this season are top eight marks in the game.

Milwaukee Brewers (5.3) @ Cincinnati Reds (5.4)

Chase Anderson (RHP) @ Tanner Roark (RHP)

Over/Under: 10.5 Moneyline: CIN -109

Pitcher Breakdown: We’re bound to see some runs in this game, just look at that 10.5 run total. Chase Anderson enters with a 40 percent hard-hit rate and 39 percent fly ball rate, which has led to nine homers.

Tanner Roark‘s numbers are slightly better, but still concerning: 37 HH% and 35 FB%. He’s given up five homers in his past five starts.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed batters are slashing .291/.389/.490 with a .376 wOBA vs Roark. Six of the seven bombs he’s coughed up have been to lefties. Spending up for Christian Yelich is never a bad thing, but having some exposure to Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal and Eric Thames seems logical. Keston Hiura is still free on FanDuel.

I’ve been pushing Eugenio Suarez throughout this slump due to the price and low ownership, but most will be on him now after three homers in his past two games. He comes in with three straight multi-hit games and remains very affordable on FanDuel. Yasiel Puig and Scooter Gennett are also free over there, with Gennett checking in decently priced at DraftKings. Right-handed bats have actually had the better of Chase, so don’t ignore Nick Senzel at the top.

Baltimore Orioles (3.1) @ Tampa Bay Rays (5.5)

Asher Wojciechowski (RHP) @ Charlie Morton (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: TB -298

Pitcher Breakdown: Charlie Morton and his 2.42 ERA makes him a cash game lock. The matchup is great and Morton has only allowed more than two runs in four of his 17 starts. He’s 8-2 with 120 strikeouts in 100 innings. The Rays are also huge home favorites.

Lefties have absolutely crushed Asher Wojciechowski over his short MLB career. The Orioles’ pitcher has allowed 18 homers over 78.2 innings and lefties have slashed .331/.397/.620 with a .420 wOBA. He’s allowed 19 homers in 82.4 Triple-A innings this season.

Batter Breakdown: Give me all the Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows and Ji-Man Choi. Everyone is out on Meadows so you should be in. When he was flirting with a $6K tag, that’s when you’re out. You should be in now that the price has dropped a bit and the focus has shifted.

New York Yankees (4.9) @ New York Mets (4.2)

James Paxton (LHP) @ Zack Wheeler (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: NYM +125

Pitcher Breakdown: James Paxton and Zack Wheeler haven’t shown me enough, so they are complete fades. Even in a contrarian setting, if I had to choose one, it’d be Paxton, but he’s failed to pitch into the seventh in 12 of his 13 outings. He’s walking 3.92 batters per nine and he’s allowed six bombs in his past five starts. The Mets actually just lit him up last month for six runs on seven hits over 2.2 innings.

Wheeler has surrendered 15 homers this season and 12 total in his past nine starts. The Yankees torched him for five runs on nine hits, including two homers over 4.2 innings on June 11th. I don’t understand why he’s so expensive, I really don’t.

Batter Breakdown: The Yankees have a home run in 31 straight games and 57 over that span, which is just six shy of what the Marlins have on the season. It’s hard to fade this lineup. There’s value with Didi Gregorius on both sites, while Aaron Hick and Gleyber Torres stand out on FanDuel.

Philadelphia Phillies (5.1) @ Atlanta Braves (5)

Aaron Nola (RHP) @ Dallas Keuchel (LHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: ATL -110

Pitcher Breakdown: Aaron Nola has looked a lot like last year’s self, but I’m not rolling him out against the Braves. Not at $10.7 on DraftKings, and certainly not as my only pitcher on FanDuel. Nola comes in having racked up 20 strikeouts in his past 15 innings, with just one run allowed. Those were outings against the Mets and Marlins, though, as he was rocked in the start before in Atlanta. Nola has allowed seven walks, two homers and six runs in 10 innings against the Braves this season.

Dallas Keuchel is reasonably priced this time around, especially on FanDuel, but I just can’t get there. He doesn’t do enough in the strikeout department and enters with a career-high 89 contact percentage in his first 10.2 innings.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed hitters have three homers and a .389/.450/.750 line with a .490 wOBA vs Keuchel so far. Scott Kingery, Jean Segura and Rhys Hoskins are where I’d go looking.

Nick Markakis and Josh Donaldson are your value bats on FanDuel. I really like Markakis as lefties are rocking a .361 wOBA against Nola. Of course, that’s good news for Freddie Freeman.

Los Angeles Angels (4.9) @ Texas Rangers (5.8)

Jose Suarez (LHP) @ Mike Minor (LHP)

Over/Under: 10.5  Moneyline: TEX -141

Pitcher Breakdown: The Rangers have the highest strikeout rate (29%) in the bigs against LHP, and it’s not really close. Jose Suarez has been bad, though, as he’s allowed six homers and 13 runs on 22 hits over 21 innings.

The Angels don’t strike out much, but they struggle against lefties. They only mustered two hits and failed to score in 7.2 innings against Brett Anderson this past weekend, and Mike Minor already has a complete game SO against LAA this season. Minor struck out seven in that game and only allowed three hits. I believe most will shy away from Minor due to the price, but he’s in a good spot.

Batter Breakdown: Mike Trout is the only Angel who has a wOBA over .366 against lefties and he’s only hitting .275 against southpaws. The second-highest wOBA vs LHP belongs to Shohei Ohtani, but the lefty-lefty matchup is not ideal and it’s unlikely he’ll get in the lineup. If you’re looking to stack against Minor, I’d roster Ohtani, Justin Upton and Albert Pujols, along with Trout. I lean Minor, though, as he’s allowed three or fewer runs in 12 straight starts and 15 of his 17 outings.

Lefties have a .533 SLG, .369 wOBA and 46 HH% against Suarez, so I wouldn’t worry too much about lefties against him. Texas has the highest team implied total of the day and Joey Gallo is a big reason why. He has seven homers, a .328 average and .469 wOBA vs LHP this season.

Detroit Tigers (4.5) @ Chicago White Sox (4.6)

Matt Boyd (LHP) @ Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: CHW -107

Pitcher Breakdown: Honestly, I’d rather roster Reynaldo Lopez than Matt Boyd. I get there’s more strikeout appeal with Boyd, but Lopez has some strikeouts in him as well. Plus, the matchup is just as nice, if not better, and he’s much cheaper.

Both are fly ball pitchers as Boyd enters with a 46 percent mark for his career and he has a 39 percent hard-hit rate this season. He’s allowed 17 homers (10 in his last five starts) and 44 since the start of last season. Lopez has a 46 FB% for his career and a 38 percent hard-hit rate this season. He’s coughed up 22 homers this season and at least one in nine straight starts.

These two pitchers only have a combined 10 starts out of 34 in which they haven’t allowed a homer. The over is definitely in play and these two teams should be considered as underrated stacks.

Batter Breakdown: There’s much more firepower in Chicago than Detroit and it starts with Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez. RHB have 14 homers vs Boyd. I wouldn’t ignore James McCann either as he’s rocking a .321 average and .410 wOBA vs LHP.

Houston Astros (6.2) @ Colorado Rockies (6.9)

Jose Urquidy (RHP) @ German Marquez (RHP)

Over/Under: 13 Moneyline: COL -135

Pitcher Breakdown: Jose Urquidy is someone I’ll definitely want to use in the future, but he’s tough to roster in Colorado. If you like getting completely wild with your lineups and roster the best bats possible, go for it. Urquidy has a cool 104:15 K:BB ratio over 76.2 innings this season between Triple-A and Double-A.

German Marquez has a 5.70 ERA at home and nine of the 15 homers he’s given up have come at Coors Field. Opponents are hitting .314 against him in Colorado compared to a .201 mark on the road.

Batter Breakdown: Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yulieski Gurriel and Tyler White are all cheaper than they really should be for a game in Colorado, especially Altuve.

There’s a huge difference in price between Colorado and Houston on DraftKings, but if you’re playing on FanDuel, there’s value with Davis Dahl, Trevor Story and Daniel Murphy. All three check in at $4K and under.

Cleveland Indians (5.2) @ Kansas City Royals (3.9)

Trevor Bauer (RHP) @ Jake Junis (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: KC +155

Pitcher Breakdown: People may shy away from Trevor Bauer given the expensive price tag, which could mean low ownership. Bauer is coming off a 12 K performance against these same Royals. He allowed one run on three hits over 6.2 innings. He’s only given up one or zero runs in three of his past four outings, and he’s only issued two walks in his past three starts. Walks were his issue.

Jake Junis has served up 18 homers this season and he comes in with a 79 percent contact rate for his career. No thanks.

Batter Breakdown: Lefties are slashing .309/.368/.534 with a .376 wOBA against Junis. LHB also have a 44 HH% against him, so consider Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis who is very affordable on FanDuel.

Minnesota Twins (4.8) @ Oakland Athletics (4.8)

Jake Odorizzi (RHP) @ Daniel Mengden (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: OAK -101

Pitcher Breakdown: I like Jake Odorizzi‘s price and the fact this games in Oakland, it’s just the Athletics have the third-lowest K-Rate in baseball. Odorizzi’s 50 FB% is also starting to catch up to him as he’s allowed four homers in his past three outings. I do believe his Twins will provide a few runs tonight.

Batter Breakdown: The Twins are always in play, especially against a contact pitcher like Daniel Mengden (84%). Marwin Gonzalez is hitting clean up and he’s free on both sites.

Against RHP this season, Matt Chapman has 14 HRs, while Ramon Laureano and Matt Olson have 10 each. Olson is rocking a 50 FB% vs RHP this season and Odorrizi has been hit hard in 2019 (43%). I think the A’s make for a sneaky stack that you can easily make work on FanDuel. Khris Davis is too cheap to pass up on both sites should he make his way in the lineup.

Arizona Diamondbacks (3.6) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (5.6)

Taylor Clarke (RHP) @ Ross Stripling (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: LAD -244

Pitcher Breakdown: Ross Stripling is the only pitcher I have interest in here and he’s one of the better value plays on the slate. Stripling threw 60 pitches in his last outing, so he should be able to go a bit deeper tonight. His last start happened to be in Arizona and he struck out four over three innings. The Dodgers’ pitcher has a 1.78 ERA at home and he had a 2.50 ERA over 54 innings at home last season.

Batter Breakdown: The Dodgers have one of the highest team implied totals at 5.5 as Taylor Clarke takes the ball for Arizona. Both lefties and righties have crushed him this season as they’ve combined for nine homers and 26 runs in 38.1 innings. Take the price discount with Justin Turner and Chris Taylor.

St. Louis Cardinals (4.9) @ Seattle Mariners (4.1)

Jack Flaherty (RHP) @ Matt Carasiti (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: SEA +125

Pitcher Breakdown: I’m a sucker for Jack Flaherty, so I will indeed have a share given his price and upside. Flaherty has allowed 18 bombs this season and nine in his last five starts. That alone should keep people away. If it doesn’t, his 6.68 ERA on the road may. So why do I like him? Well, he’s cheap and he has strikeout upside when you consider his arsenal and the Mariners’ 25K%. It’s a GPP play.

Batter Breakdown: There’s value atop the Cards lineup with Tommy Edman and Jose Martinez. Also, Tyler O’Neil is $2K on FanDuel. You can’t pass that up as the Mariners have one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Home runs have been a thing for Jack, so you’d be silly to fade Dan Vogelbach or J.P. Crawford who is swinging a hot bat.

San Francisco Giants (3.8) @ San Diego Padres (4.8)

Tyler Beede (RHP) @ Matthew Strahm (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: SD -157

Pitcher Breakdown: Tyler Beede has allowed 27 runs on 42 hits over his 37.2 innings and he enters with a 6.69 BB/9. Matt Strahm has a solid 1.93 BB/9 but his 43 FB% has led to 16 homers. In fact, he comes in having allowed at least two bombs in six straight starts, and he’s rocking a 45 HH%.

Batter Breakdown: Right-handed batters have 13 homers against Strahm and left-handed batters have a .436 wOBA against him. There are not a lot of places to go here, but SF is fresh off a 13-run showing last night. Brandon Belt, Kevin Pillar and Evan Longoria make for an underrated, low owned and cheap stack. It’s something to at least keep an eye on for the late slate.

Lefties are slashing .313/.423/.594 with a .421 wOBA against Beede, so consider Eric Hosmer. The Padres disappointed many last night, so people may shy away from Fernando Tatis and Franmil Reyes this time around. I wouldn’t ignore them.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitchers: Charlie Morton, Trevor Bauer & Patrick Corbin

Best Value Pitchers: David Price, Jack Flaherty, Joe Musgrove, Ross Stripling & Zac Gallen

Pitchers I’m feeling: Charlie Morton (cash), Patrick Corbin (cash), Mike Minor (cash), Trevor Bauer (GPP), David Price (GPP), Ross Stripling (GPP), Joe Musgrove (GPP) & Jack Flaherty (GPP)

Contrarian GPP options: Aaron Nola, James Paxton, Zac Gallen & Reynaldo Lopez

Pitchers to fade: Zack Wheeler, Kyle Hendricks, Matt Boyd & German Marquez

Pitchers to pick on: Dallas Keuchel, Jose Suarez, Chase Anderson, Tanner Roark, Trent Tornton, Taylor Clarke & Asher Wojciechowski

Top Overall Hitters: J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich, Freddie Freeman, Mike Trout, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Matt Chapman & Cody Bellinger

Best value Hitters (DK): Adam Eaton, Adam Frazier, Jackie Bradley, Vladimir Guerrero, Keston Hiura, Scooter Gennett, Ji-Man Choi, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, J.D. Davis, Delino DeShields, Miguel Cabrera, Eloy Jimenez, Jose Altuve, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Marwin Gonzalez, Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano, Jose Martinez, Kyle Seager, Brandon Belt & Evan Longoria

Best value Hitters (FD): Howie Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman, Kyle Schwarber, Bryan Reynolds, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, Lourdes Gurriel, Eric Sogard, Eric Thames, Keston Hiura, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, J.D. Davis, Jean Segura, Nick Markakis, Josh Donaldson, David Fletcher, Delino DeShields, Nomar Mazara, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, Jose Altuve, Trevor Story, David Dahl, Daniel Murphy, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Jose Martinez, J.P. Crawford, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria & Franmil Reyes

Home Run Call of the Day: Jose Abreu

Others HR calls to consider: Josh Bell, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Christian Yelich, Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, Austin Meadows, Didi Gregorius, Peter Alonso, Rhys Hoskins, Joey Gallo, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, George Springer, Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson & Dan Vogelbach

Stack ranks: HOU, COL, BOS, MIL, CIN, TEX & TB

Underrated stack: MIN, OAK, NYY, PHI & CHW

Best bet: BOS -167

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