MLB DFS Breakdown – Brewing up the offense in Milwaukee – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Breakdown – Brewing up the offense in Milwaukee – The Quant Edge

Saturday features a six-game MLB DFS slate with an odd start time of 8:15 p.m. ET. We have a number of games with some really high team totals, highlighted by the Dodgers at 7 runs against Jon Gray at Coors Field and the Brewers at 5.5 against Jordan Lyles. Let’s jump into all the MLB DFS information for this slate and as always, feel free to reach me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Pittsburgh Pirates (3.7) @ Milwaukee Brewers (5.5)

Jordan Lyles (RHP) vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5  Moneyline: Brewers -188

Pitcher Breakdown: I have this personal rule where I never take a starting pitcher fresh off the IL (Mike Clevinger, anyone?). Lyles is a big no-no for me even before you consider how much of a poor matchup this is for him. Lefties have really hit Lyles hard and he owns a .367 wOBA with a 5.12 xFIP with five of his seven home runs allowed. Against this Brewers lineup, that means trouble. 

Woodruff is always an enticing option because of his strikeout upside. The problem with this matchup is that the Pirates don’t strikeout much at all. Entering this game they sport an 18.1 K% against righties, which is the third lowest in the league. Not exactly a stat I want to chase. Can Woodruff go out and have a good game here? Most likely, but I don’t think he’ll reach value in this spot. For what it’s worth, he DID strikeout 10 Pirates once already so I get the appeal, I just think he’ll be hard pressed to repeat that type of performance.

Hitter Breakdown:  If you’re going to attack Woodruff you’re going to want to do so with their lefties. On the season, Woodruff has allowed a .335 wOBA with a 3.72 xFIP and seven of the 10 home runs he’s allowed. I would focus on Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson, Bryan Reynolds and Colin Moran if you wanted a contrarian stack.

For the Brewers, it’s all about the lefties again. I mentioned the struggles Lyles has in this spot so it sets up nicely for Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal and Eric Thames. Again, stacking these guys (if possible) would be a really unique build. Not that you were wondering, but Ben Gamel only has a .329 wOBA and .117 ISO against righties at home, so he can be ignored.

Seattle Mariners (3.4) @ Houston Astros (6.2)

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) vs. Justin Verlander (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5  Moneyline: Astros -270

Pitcher Breakdown:  Quite the lofty team total for the Astros who have been struggling at the plate. Over the last five games, they’re averaging 3.6 runs per game, thanks in large part to nine runs in one of those games. With that said, this is a great opportunity for them to break out. Kikuchi has been a disaster and has a .455 wOBA with a 6.07 xFIP and seven home runs allowed through 19 1/3 innings in June. Gross.

Verlander is Verlander. I don’t think I have to sit here and sell you on him. The only concern is the home runs, as he’s allowed eight this month. Aside from that, if you can pay up for him, that’s great. I will say though, with the amount of high priced bats I want, Verlander is not really in my plans.

Hitter Breakdown:  If you wanted to be uber contrarian, any of the Mariners bats would do the trick. It’s 100% not out of the realm of possibilities that Verlander gives up a couple of bombs in this game. Daniel Vogelbach would be my favorite target here and you’ll get him at super low ownership.

The Astros will be a very popular stack today. I mean the 6.2 run total says it all. Most of the usual suspects will be in play here like George Springer, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. If you want to mix it up a bit, Robinson Chirinos is always a great option against lefties. Jake Marisnick is another name to consider. He actually owns the highest ISO at home against lefties at .429 to go with a .475 wOBA.

Los Angeles Dodgers (7) @ Colorado Rockies (5.6)

Clayton Kershaw (LHP) vs. Jon Gray (RHP)

Over/Under: 12.5  Moneyline: Dodgers -140

Pitcher Breakdown: Another day, another massive total at Coors. This total is a bit tough for me at 12.5 Just going by the numbers, Jon Gray really HASN’T been that bad at Coors Field. Through 36 1/3 innings, he has a .316 wOBA, a 4.13 xFIP and only four of his nine home runs allowed. Now, I’m not running to roster him in all my lineups but I think he makes for a VERY interesting GPP option. It won’t be pretty and you’ll be sweating bullets but I don’t think it’s crazy.

Kershaw I’m not going to bother with. When I see someone like Hyun-jin Ryu get lit up, who can you trust that’s a lefty against the Rockies at home? Kershaw has also been so-so this month and has been hit by teams who hit lefties well, specifically the Diamondbacks and Phillies. A bit concerning considering the matchup.

Hitter Breakdown:  Unfortunately for me, I have it stuck in my head that I want to use Gray in some GPPs, so it’s hindering my judgment a bit on who to take for the Dodgers. Focusing on the righties would be the way to go, so the usual suspects here. Chris Taylor feels like a must play at this juncture (who would have thought?) Justin Turner is another option I like a lot. Max Muncy helps fill the void of a poor second base position overall.

Nothing crazy here for the Rockies, all the guys you would usually suspect. Ian Desmond is one of my favorite plays here with his .448 wOBA and .330 ISO against lefties at Coors. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Chris Iannetta round out my favorite plays.

Arizona Diamondbacks (3.8) @ San Francisco Giants (3.2)

Zack Greinke (RHP) vs. Drew Pomeranz (LHP)

Over/Under: 7.5  Moneyline: Diamondbacks -155

Pitcher Breakdown: Compared to the other game totals, this looks like a game primed for pitching options. Zack Greinke is my favorite option on this slate. He gives you a nice salary saving over Verlander and has a better matchup at Oracle Park. The Giants are simply putrid at home against righties and Greinke has pitched his best baseball on the road. With a 3.4 run total for the Giants, I think Greinke is the guy.

Pomeranz is pitching….well? He’s faced the Dodgers twice, Rockies and Brewers and has allowed a total of nine runs. Seven of those came against the Dodgers in a single start, so he’s held the Rockies, Brewers and Dodgers (in one start) to only two runs. He does face one of the best hitting clubs against lefties, as the D-Backs own a league-leading .352 wOBA and ISO at .252. This run total could be a bit low and I think the D-Backs can sneak a good game in here.

Hitter Breakdown: Any D-Backs stack starts with Ketel Marte, so go ahead and lock him in. You done? Great. After that, we have a couple of unlikely names to consider. Carson Kelly and Ildemaro Vargas have some of the highest ISO on the team against lefties away from Chase Field. They would really mix up your stack. Nick Ahmed and Eduardo Escobar can round out your stack nicely after them.

The Giants I have almost zero interest in. Alex Dickerson would be my only consideration here.

Oakland Athletics (4.4) @ Los Angeles Angels (5.2)

Brett Anderson (LHP) vs. Tyler Skaggs (LHP)

Over/Under: 9.5  Moneyline: Angels -140

Pitcher Breakdown:  For a game that has a total of 9.5 runs, I’m not overly interested in much here. Sure, we definitely have options but I think this slate has A LOT to like overall. So this game doesn’t really stick out. With that in mind, if you wanted to really zone in on this game, I think it would be a really unique build. I don’t want either pitcher in this game so both will be staying on the board. I can see the appeal for Skaggs because the A’s are struggling at the plate but they have some good bats against lefties. Not worth the risk, in my opinion.

Hitter Breakdown:   Again, I personally don’t have a lot of hype for this game. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t feature guys you can use. For the A’s, Stephen Piscotty is a great salary saver if you need that. He’s always hit lefties well so he is a boom-or-bust option at outfield. Marcus Semien, Mark Canha and Khris Davis are a few other options I would consider.

For the Angels, you know I love taking Albert Pujols against lefties. He won’t stop hitting for power in those matchups and he’ll carry very little ownership. I assume Mike Trout won’t have much ownership either between the Astros, Brewers and Coors Field popularity.

St. Louis Cardinals (3.8) @ San Diego Padres (4.3)

Dakota Hudson (RHP) vs. Chris Paddack (RHP)

Over/Under: Moneyline: Padres -110

Pitcher Breakdown: This is a really good game to target for pitching. I think we have a lot to like here and not much to like when it comes to hitting. Hudson is a REALLY intriguing option against a right-handed heavy Padres lineup. Against righties, Hudson has a .250 wOBA with a 3.60 xFIP and only two of his 10 home runs allowed. This should be a really strong spot for him

Paddack is equally in a good spot although is salary is a bit high for me. While the Cardinals are struggling as a team offensively, they still aren’t striking out much. With that in mind, I still think Paddack can get through this start relatively unscathed. I wonder about his ownership because he has struggled as of late and has a .404 wOBA with a 5.20 xFIP in the month of June. Of the two, Hudson is the much more attractive option.

Hitter Breakdown:  Not much you want to consider here. If you want to consider a couple of the lefties on the Cardinals I think that would make sense. Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman and Kolten Wong would be the only ones I’d consider.

For the Padres, it’s the few lefties they have that are worth rostering. Francisco Mejia is one of my favorite value plays if he’s able to crack the lineup (I’d like Hudson even more if he’s not). Eric Hosmer is kind of sort of an option. He’s getting on base at a good clip as of late but he’s so difficult to take because of his lack of power. He has hit three home runs over his last 10 games but that feels like a rarity.

Best Overall Pitcher: Zack Greinke

Best Value Pitcher: Dakota Hudson

Best Overall Hitters: George Springer, Yasmani Grandal, Ketel Marte,  Chris Taylor, Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond

Best Value Hitters: Francisco Mejia, Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha, Daniel Vogelbach, Ildemaro Vargas

Home Run Call of the Day: Yasmani Grandal

Stacks: Brewers, Astros, Diamondbacks,

Bet of the Day:  Diamondbacks -155

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