Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we discuss the best plays for today’s slate, which includes Alex Bregman, Aaron Nola and Jean Segura.
Los Angeles Dodgers (4.7) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (3.9)
Walker Buehler (RHP) @ Robbie Ray (LHP)
Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: ARI +133
Pitcher Breakdown: If you don’t want to have full exposure to Aaron Nola, Walker Buehler is probably the way you should go. He has more risk in his matchup, but the slate is small so I wouldn’t worry too much about ownership. You’ll have to be different with your bats regardless. Buehler was rocked in his last start and he was rocked in his first outing of the season against Arizona. Other than that, it’s been three or fewer runs allowed in eight of his 11 starts. They don’t have a lot of power in their lineup and there’s strikeouts to be had.
Robbie Ray has been much better lately, but he still has a ridiculously high walk rate (5.03 BB/9) and he’s failed to pitch into the seventh this season. He hasn’t tossed six complete innings since April 21st. There’s a ton of risk in this play and it’s hard to believe he’s more expensive than Buehler on DK. Ray is a contrarian/let’s get nuts play.
Batter Breakdown: Alex Verdugo is easy on the wallet should he find a way into the lineup. He has a .403 wOBA vs southpaws. David Freese and Enrique Hernandez rank inside the top 50 in wOBA vs lefties. The Dodgers are an affordable stack on FD as Freese is dirt cheap as is Chris Taylor. 1-4 is a decent looking stack as it’s been right-handed batters that have had more success against Ray this season compared to lefties.
Philadelphia Phillies (4.1) @ San Diego Padres (3.5)
Aaron Nola (RHP) @ Eric Lauer (LHP)
Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: SD +125
Pitcher Breakdown: Aaron Nola is the play this evening and he’ll likely have the highest ownership, especially when you factor in the Padres’ league-high strikeout percentage (27%). This will almost certainly be the case on FD where he is cheaper than Buehler. Also, add that to the fact that Eric Lauer has a league-high 85 percent contact rate among arms with 40 innings this season. Nola has allowed three or fewer runs in eight straight starts and he has five outings over that span where he’s allowed just one run in a start. SD has the lowest team implied total of the night.
Lauer is your ultimate contrarian play as he has a 2.67 ERA over 33.2 home innings, compared to 6.84 over 25 innings on the road. That said, he gives up a ton of contact and the Phillies don’t strike out much. Their 1-through-5 hitters are strong against lefties.
Batter Breakdown: Seven of the eight home runs Lauer has allowed have come against RHB. Jean Segura leads the way with a .349 average and .456 wOBA vs LHP. Bryce Harper leads Philly with five homers against southpaws and he checks in with a .300 average against them. Sean Rodriguez is a good punt play on FD.
In lineups where you fade Nola, you should think about Manny Machado, who is struggling and will likely come low owned. Also, lefty Eric Hosmer to go against the grain. Left-handed hitters are slashing .308/.408/.570 with a .411 wOBA against Nola.
Houston Astros (5.5) @ Seattle Mariners (4.7)
Corbin Martin (RHP) @ Wade LeBlanc (LHP)
Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: SEA +115
Pitcher Breakdown: Corbin Martin looked good in his debut, but he’s been brutal in his three starts since. The Astros’ pitcher has allowed 10 runs, nine walks and six homers in 16.1 innings. Martin is an arm I would have some exposure too, though. The Mariners have cooled off since their hot start and they enter with the fourth-highest strikeout rate.
Wade LeBlanc enters with a 81 percent contact rate, 41 percent fly ball rate and 41 percent hard-hit rate. He’s allowed 39 hits, 22 runs and eight homers in 28.1 innings this season. Right-handed bats are slashing .323/.369/.604 with a .404 wOBA against him.
Batter Breakdown: The Seattle Mariners just came off a four-game series against the Angels where they allowed 47 hits and 31 runs. Their 5.30 ERA is the second-highest and they’ve allowed a league-high 604 hits, which is 54 more than the second-place Orioles. Seattle has allowed the second-most home runs (107) and their bullpen enters with a 5.27 ERA (third-highest). Alex Bregman is the bat to spend up for, but there’s a bit of value in the lineup with Myles Straw and Tyler White. Straw picked up three hits, three runs and three stolen bases yesterday. Derek Fisher has a .308 average for his career against lefties, so he may get into the lineup as well.
The offense will likely come from this game and I think some of the SEA bats may go low owned, which is key on a small night like this. Mitch Haniger, Edwin Encarnacion and Domingo Santana are three right-handed power bats to consider. RHB have a .333/.405/.818 and .492 wOBA against Martin so far. It’s a very small sample size, but they also have a 42 percent hard-hit rate against him compared to a 28 percent mark from lefties.
In Case You Missed It:
Best Overall Pitcher: Aaron Nola
Best Value Pitchers: Corbin Martin
Pitchers I’m feeling: Aaron Nola, Walker Buehler & Corbin Martin
Contrarian GPP options: Eric Lauer & Robbie Ray
Pitchers to fade: Robbie Ray
Best Overall Hitters: Justin Turner, David Peralta, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Alex Bregman & Mitch Haniger
Best value Hitters (DK): David Freese, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Manny Machado, Myles Straw, Yulieski Gurriel, Tyler White & Jack Mayfield
Best value Hitters (FD): David Freese, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, David Peralta, Jean Segura, Sean Rodriguez, Manny Machado, Myles Straw, Josh Reddick, Tyler White & Kyle Seager
Home Run Call of the Day: Alex Bregman
Others HR calls to consider: David Freese, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Tyler White, Edwin Encarnacion & Domingo Santana
Stack ranks: LAD, HOU, PHI & SEA
Underrated stack: SEA
Bet of the Day: PHI -152
Chris Meaney is a DFS contributor for The Quant Edge, covering fantasy sports. Chris covered NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB as the producer, writer and host at FNTSY Sports Network. He was lead host of the daily live shows, “Fantasy Sports Today” and “Home Ice Advantage.” Chris has written for The Athletic, the Associated Press, the New York Daily News, Fantasy Footballers, NBA Fantasy, Play Picks, Fantrax and more. @chrismeaney.