MLB DFS Batter Breakdown – Twins bashing by the Bay – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Batter Breakdown – Twins bashing by the Bay – The Quant Edge

Hope Wednesday went well for some. The GPP targets crushed on the MLB DFS Batter Breakdown. Goes back to a theory I’ve had on QH for a while that stacking isn’t always the answer, at least not full stacks, and just play more of a home run derby lineup.

Today, as we celebrate the 4th of July, we have a six-game early and four-game late slate. I’ll be in and out of the member discord to help where I can. On the early slate, we have some good options, including the Twins bashing by the Bay. All the game totals are 9 or higher, heck all but SD/LAD are above 9 today. Let’s see what bats we like for today’s MLB DFS Batter Breakdown.

Catcher

Early- You have James McCann vs a LHP, and even though it’s Boyd, he’s worth a GPP play. But, my top play is Jason Castro, who had the day off yesterday and should be back and ready to roll after a double dong Monday night. In Tanner Anderson’s limited action, LHH have crushed him. This season, lefties are hitting .378 with a .473 wOBA. Vic Caratini and Travis D’Arnaud are options as well.

Late- Christian Vazquez has been crushing it and is worth a look tonight, but he’s pricey. If you want to save some cash, then Danny Jansen is in play. Jansen has hit safely in seven of his last eight with a .379 average, a .509 wOBA and 4 home runs (6 xBH). If that doesn’t work, then you can always just punt with the usual – Jeff Mathis.

First Base

Early-  Insert line from every other breakdown…..Josh Bell is a good play again today. Now that that’s done with, let’s get to the other options. Yandy Diaz is the most expensive 1B option after Bell and he’s in a really good spot vs Happ. Diaz has hits in four of his last five and, on the season, is hitting .325 with a .408 wOBA vs LHP. Eric Thames and Matt Olson make for interesting GPP plays. But…….it’s all about Jose Abreu at $4200. I waxed poetically on Monday about this matchup on Monday and now we get it. Abreu mashes LHP and loves him some Boyd, who he’s 12-24 against in his career with 2 home runs. Lastly, Joey Votto is a decent cheaper option too.

Late- Zach Eflin is giving up 2.1 HR/9 and a 43% HH rate vs LHH this season, as if you needed more reasons to fire up Freddie Freeman. Rhys Hoskins makes for a super contrarian play vs Soroka. If going cheap, then just target Justin Smoak or Rowdy Tellez.

Second Base

Early- In the past, LHH have been able to get to Luis Castillo, this season not so much, but Mike Moustakas still makes for a good GPP play today. For the most part at 2B, there isn’t a ton I like without seeing lineups and value. One of my top plays is Luis Arraez vs Anderson. Since returning on June 18th, Arraez has hit safely in 10 of 12 games with a .463 average. Yairo Munoz could make another interesting punt. 

Late- LOURDES, LOURDES, LOURDES!!!!! Lourdes Gurriel Jr has been straight crushing it and is a really good but expensive play tonight. You could pay for an expensive Eric Sogard, who is hitting .368 over his last five games with 5 runs scored. If you couldn’t tell, I like the Jays tonight (good thing some of these guys are multi-position eligible), but I really like me some Cavan Biggio tonight. Over the last 11 games, he’s hitting .326 with 11 runs driven in and 5 extra base hits. If punting, then I am all about Brock Holt.

Third Base

Early- You can go Yandy Diaz here as well, or go with the GPP play in Yoan Moncada. Yesterday, Moncada showcased his increased skills vs LHP and will look to take advantage of Boyd today. Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suarez make for interesting GPP plays. If punting, then look into Marwin Gonzalez or Ehire Adrianza vs Anderson. Third base doesn’t have a ton of cash plays outside of Yandy. 

Late- RAFAEL DEVERS!!!! Damn, he didn’t go yard last night, yet still got the job done. DraftKings finally gave him his deserved price increase, but he is still a solid play vs Stroman. If getting really contrarian, then Manny Machado, who is hitting .380 with a .529 wOBA vs LHP, is in play vs Ryu. Josh Donaldson and Vladito make for really good mid-priced plays at the hot corner tonight. 

Shortstop

Early- Javy Baez is definitely in play tonight as he’s hitting .282 with a .349 wOBA vs RHP and most won’t pay that price tag in a righty-righty matchup. Jorge Polanco homered last night and is still well priced and a great target today vs Anderson. If going cheaper, give me Didi Gregorius, who is coming off a homer last night and has continued to rake of late or Willy Adames vs Happ.

Late- You could pay up for Fernando Tatis Jr in a GPP, I won’t be going there, but I see the appeal. If spending up at SS, I’ll target Xander Bogaerts, who is hitting .333 with a .427 wOBA over his last seven games. Once again, Manny Machado makes for a very intriguing GPP play. Freddy Galvis would be another, cheaper option at SS.

Outfield

Early- You can obviously go to Christian Yelich, who is coming off a day off on Wednesday. The Twins are my top play early and that means Max Kepler and Marwin Gonzalez from the left side but then don’t forget Nelson Cruz and Byron Buxton from the right side. If you are fading Woodruff, then you have Jesse Winker and the RED HOT Yasiel Puig. Mallek Smith and Domingo Santana are in play vs Wacha. Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward are solid vs Lyles as we love attacking Lyles with lefties. With the Rays vs Happ, you have Tommy Pham and the lefty masher with Avisail Garcia. Don’t forget the cheap Aaron Hicks either.

Late- You have Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun and Shin-Soo Choo vs Canning. Mike Trout is in play every day, but Shohei Ohtani and Kole Calhoun are GPP viable. Mookie Betts and JD are their standard good plays, but don’t forget Benintendi and, more importantly, the value of JBJ. If fading Ryu, you can get some serious value with Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes and Wil Myers. You know by now that I love the Jays tonight so Lourdes, Biggio for sure and then look into the streaking Randall Grichuk. The Braves may be overlooked tonight but don’t forget Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley and Nick Markakis. Lastly your Dodgers with Bellinger, Joc, Verdugo and a sneaky Chris Taylor.

Stacks 

Early- MIN, TB, CHC, CWS

Late- TOR, ATL, BOS, TEX

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