MLB DFS Batter Breakdown – Indians vs Junis – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Batter Breakdown – Indians vs Junis – The Quant Edge

What a Monday night we had with only four games, 3 Josh Bell home runs, as the Pirates routed the Cubs, and the Giants put up 13 on the Padres. Well, we have 15 games on tap tonight and it should be just as crazy, if not crazier. Looking at the TQE Line Movement tool and at this time, we have 12 game totals of 9 or more and 11 team totals over 5. There will be offense for days tonight and home runs to be had by all. There will be the obvious love for Coors, offensive fireworks in Great American Small Park and then some value with the Phillies and the Indians. There are so many ways to go, so today is a day I highly recommend listening to MLB DFS Quick Hits to get all the players you are looking to target.


On large slates like this, it seems just normal to punt and you can, but there are some nice options if paying at the position. Yasmani Grandal once again is a really solid play vs Tanner Roark tonight. But, it’s the catcher in the $3K range that really has my attention. Wilson Ramos can be a contrarian play vs Paxton. Ramos has been hitting LHP really well this season and RHH have a .328 wOBA and .448 SLG vs Paxton this season. A little cheaper in the $3K range leads to Buster Posey, who has double-digit DK games in three of his last four, and Francisco Mejia vs Beede. After those guys, you go to the usual punts of Martin Maldonado, Danny Jansen and Jeff Mathis.

First Base

Cash- Carlos Santana at only $4700 seems like a discount compared to others on this slate as he faces Junis tonight. Santana has hit safely in seven straight games, hitting .296 over that stretch with a .385 wOBA. Getting a piece of Coors cheap is always nice and Daniel Murphy at $4600 is that guy. He’s hit safely in six of his last seven games with a .435 average and a 42% HH rate. Rhys Hoskins and Joey Votto are two other really good cash game plays in the $4K range tonight.

GPP- Freddie Freeman vs Nola and Josh Bell vs Hendricks are once again both in play and more GPP viable than cash tonight based on matchups. Dan Vogelbach is always streaky and has the potential for big power, especially vs RHP. This season, he’s hitting .281 vs righties with a .423 wOBA and a 47% HH rate. Tonight, he faces Jack Flaherty, who is giving up a .270 average to lefties this season with a .352 wOBA, 2.4 HR/9 and a 49% HH rate. Matt Adams is a sneaky GPP play vs Gallen tonight. Jose Abreu may be my favorite risk/reward GPP play tonight. On the season, Abreu is hitting .347 and a .393 wOBA vs LHP. He faces Matt Boyd tonight, who he’s had great success against, going 12-24 (.500) with a double and 2 home runs.

Second Base

Cash- Max Muncy and Mike Moustakas both make for really good cash game plays tonight if paying up top. But, it all starts with what may be a chalky play – Jose Altuve in Coors at only $4200. Altuve is hitting .292 in his 11 games since he’s returned from the IL and is coming off a 3 hit game on Sunday. Altuve usually has a really solid floor and some nice upside, which both get increased in Coors tonight. Scooter Gennett, at sub $4K, is very cash playable as he is hitting clean up and in a great spot tonight. If looking to just save cash, then go with Jason Kipnis at $3600 vs Junis. Kipnis has hit safely in 11 of his last 12, hitting .395 over that stretch with a .460 wOBA. Just too cheap.

GPP- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is coming in swinging a very hot bat and gets David Price tonight. It’s always risky targeting Price, but Gurriel has mashed LHP. He’s hitting .348 with a .466 wOBA and a 53% HH rate vs LHP this season. Ketel Marte is another high priced GPP target tonight. When going cheaper, take a good GPP look at Keston Hiura vs Roark tonight. Hiura is coming off a homer last night and we all know how good a hitter he can be. Some full YOLO punts can be Franklin Barreto and Garrett Hampson.

Third Base

Cash- Your top two cash game plays are definitely Nolan Arenado and Alex Bregman in great spots in Coors. But, if you want to save some cash, you look into Scott Kingery or Mike Moustakas. I was in on Eugenio Suarez and he’s back in play tonight vs Chase Anderson. Suarez has multi-hit games in three straight games and has hit safely in six of his last eight. Over that stretch, he’s hitting .345 with a .500 wOBA. Chase Anderson has shown some nice reverse splits this year as RHH are hitting .308 with a .389 wOBA, 2.1 HR/9 and a 48% HH rate. If looking for value, then it’s all about Jose Ramirez, who is hitting .288 over the last 14 games and seems to slowly be getting it together.

GPP- Trent Thornton has been giving up a .342 wOBA and a near 40% HH rate to LHH this season and gets Rafael Devers tonight, who is very much in play. Yoan Moncada is known more for his power from the left side of the plate, but he’s improved from the right side. This season, he’s hitting .280 with a .453 SLG and will be quite a contrarian play vs Boyd tonight. Todd Frazier, Brian Anderson and Marwin Gonzalez are some cheaper options. If looking for a major punt, then look into Evan Longoria vs Strahm. He’s hit safely in back to back games and has a 47% HH rate vs LHP this season.


Cash- Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado and Alex Bregman are all high priced cash game options. My top cash game play is a little cheaper and is hitting .323 over his last seven games – Francisco Lindor. This season, LHH are hitting .294 with a .345 wOBA vs Daniel Mengden this season and that looks very good for Jorge Polanco. If looking for some cheaper options, look into Willy Adames, who extended his hitting streak to seven last night, and Jose Iglesias vs Anderson.

GPP- Javy Baez and Xander Bogaerts are both really good GPP targets if paying up. But you can save at SS tonight. That starts with Jean Segura with his .313 average vs LHP as he faces Dallas Keuchel. Paul DeJong and Marcus Semien are in play as well. But the punt I really like is Didi Gregorious vs Wheeler. Didi is heating up after a slow start of the IL. He has multi-hit games in four straight games where he’s hit .474 with a .559 wOBA. Enjoy the discount while you can.


Cash- Coors is obviously in play. Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl are great plays for the Rockies and George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez and Josh Reddick are all in play and too cheap. Christian Yelich hit his 30th homer of the year last night and is back in play tonight. If looking for a Brew Crew discount, then target Ben Gamel. Bryce Harper and Scott Kingery are both intriguing looks vs Keuchel. The Indians are cheap tonight and in a great spot, look for some value with Tyler Naquin and company. The Dodgers are in a great spot and may be overlooked. Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson and Alex Verdugo are all really good spots, heck even Chris Taylor.

GPP- Mike Trout is in a smash spot per usual and don’t forget Justin Upton. Rangers are in a very interesting spot tonight and may be more overlooked tonight than last night. Look into Joey Gallo, Choo, Mazara and Calhoun. Ronald Acuna and Nick Markakis are all GPP viable vs the Phillies tonight. We documented Lourdes Gurriel Jr. earlier, but also check out Randall Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez if you want to get contrarian. The Pirates went off last night and are really good GPP plays again. Look into Starling Marte and Bryan Reynolds for starters. The Reds are intriguing tonight vs Chase Anderson. Enjoy the reverse splits with Nick Senzel and Yasiel Puig, but also ride the red hot Jesse Winker. The Giants are never sexy but look into Kevin Pillar and Austin Slater.

So many ways to go tonight, check out MLB DFS Quick Hits for all the plays.


Top Stacks in order- CLE, PHI, LAD, TB, COL, HOU, CIN, MIL