MLB Betting – Are Padres worth the over? – The Quant Edge

MLB Betting – Are Padres worth the over? – The Quant Edge

We start off a new week in MLB Betting with all 30 teams in action tonight on a massive 15-game slate. We ended last week on a high note on Friday, going 2-1 to bring our overall record to 68-37 on the year. With every team playing tonight, we have so many bets to consider, so I’ve narrowed down to my three favorites, including a wild one for the Padres in Baltimore. Let’s jump right into this week’s MLB Betting article and as always, you can always reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Texas Rangers OVER 4.5 runs

Jordan Zimmermann is taking the mound for the second time since returning from the injured list. The first go around didn’t exactly go as Zimm would have liked, allowing three runs on five hits through four innings of work against the Pirates.  Tonight, he’ll face a tough Rangers offense that is reportedly going to add Joey Gallo back into the mix after he’s been sidelined with an oblique injury. The Rangers currently average one of the highest run totals in the league on the road at 5.4, which ranks sixth in the league.

With the Tigers bullpen being anything but reliable this season, I think taking the over on the Rangers is my favorite bet of this slate. Entering this game, the Tigers relievers currently have a 4.77 xFIP with a 1.7 HR/9, which is the second highest average in the league. The likely addition of Gallo would only help their situation in a favorable spot, to begin with.

San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 runs

So initially, I was looking at the under here. 6.5 runs is just A LOT of offense to generate and I’m usually not comfortable taking the over on a total like this. Then I started to dig into the numbers a bit deeper and man, I really don’t hate the over anymore.

This Orioles bullpen is a joke. I looked at their stats just over the last week and was shocked at just HOW bad they’ve been. Over the past seven days, the Orioles bullpen has 21.1 innings and have allowed 21 runs on 26 hits, four of which were home runs. They also have walked 13 guys in that span with none of them being intentional.

Then I wanted to dive into the numbers for the Padres against righties. I know for a fact they’ve been much better against lefties but what about righties on the road? Again, I was surprised by what I found. On the road against righties, the Padres have a .326 wOBA (10th) with a .194 ISO (8th) and 155 runs scored (6th). With all this in mind, my God, I’m taking the over.

Los Angeles Angels UNDER 4.5 runs

From a DFS purpose, I think Tyler Mahle goes overlooked tonight. From a better perspective, I think the Angels will be overvalued with how well they’ve been hitting lately. With Mahle, the way to beat him is with lefties. It’s why he enters this game with a .362 wOBA and a 5.14 xFIP against them. Against righties, he has a .271 wOBA and a 2.75 xFIP. This is a very right-handed heavy lineup for the Angels that really only feature Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun, Luis Rengifo and Shohei Ohtani. If Mahle can avoid anything big from them, I think he can hold the Angles in check and help us hit them under on their total.