MLB Betting – Nationals love smashing lefties – The Quant Edge

MLB Betting – Nationals love smashing lefties – The Quant Edge

In today’s MLB Betting, Friday night wraps up the week with a huge 14-game slate of baseball. Every team is in action except for the Red Sox and Yankees because the MLB wanted to send them overseas for some really weird London series. Anyways, we have a lot to like about this slate from a betting perspective and we’ll look to improve our 71-40 record on the year! We can start off with the Nationals in a fantastic matchup against the lefty Daniel Norris, which had me running (jogging) to place a bet. Let’s get into today’s MLB Betting and as always, you can reach me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Washington Nationals OVER 5.5 runs

It’s gotten to the point where I just want to always take the Nationals against lefties. I don’t think the public has really caught on to how GOOD this team is in those matchups. You might be surprised to know that they currently own a team .366 wOBA (third) with a .218 ISO (fifth) and 31 home runs (11th). Now, they’ll travel to an American League ballpark, in which they’ll be able to use a DH AND face a lefty who’s been struggling. At home, Daniel Norris has a .331 wOBA, a 4.27 xFIP and six of his 14 home runs allowed. The month of June hasn’t exactly been kind to Norris either, as he’s allowed 18 runs on 35 hits through 29 innings. I absolutely love this spot for the Nationals and have already placed my money on the over for this spot. 

Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 4.5 runs

The Brewers will be sending Jhoulys Chacin to the mound tonight to take on the Pirates. I don’t know if you’ve caught on but Chacin is having a REALLY tough year as a starter. His walks are up, his home runs allowed are WAY up and he has an overall .351 wOBA and a 5.54 xFIP on the season through 14 starts. The Pirates have been mashing the ball as of late and have been one of the best hitting clubs in the league over the past two weeks. In that span, they’ve put together a team .379 wOBA with a .232 ISO and 15 home runs. Seeing those type of numbers for a team that’s going up against a struggling starting pitcher is very eye-opening. My first guess was that the Pirates would have a 5.5 team total, so you can imagine how surprised and excited I was to see it was currently set at 4.5 I would jump on this one while you have the chance.

Atlanta Braves OVER 3.5 runs

But Steve, Jacob deGrom is taking the mound, why would you steer us into such madness?! Well, my friends, the Mets bullpen has been THAT bad. I fully believe that the Mets will stretch deGrom out as long as they can to avoid that bullpen. However, even if we can get a couple of innings against them, it could be enough to hit the over. Just to paint this picture properly, the Mets bullpen has pitched 19 2/3 innings over the past seven days. In that timeframe, they’ve allowed 20 runs on 29 hits, including six home runs and a 6.32 xFIP. If the Braves can get one run off deGrom, all the better. Currently, this prop is at plus money so I feel like we’re getting really good value here. Yes, the timeframe to hit on this will be small, but I really think the Mets bullpen can implode against a really good offense once again, giving us the over.