MLB Betting – Can Brewers smash the over? – The Quant Edge

MLB Betting – Can Brewers smash the over? – The Quant Edge

We were on the way to a perfect 3-0 MLB Betting night before the selfish Angels decided to score an unnecessary run in the seventh to put them over the 4.5 run total. Alas, we’ll settle on a 2-1 night to give us a 70-38 MLB Betting record on the season, good for a 64.8% winning rate. Below, I’ll feature three bets that I’m looking at for tonight’s nine-game slate of baseball, which I expect will feature a lot of offense. The Brewers are in a prime spot against the Mariners, who’ll be running a bullpen game tonight. As always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Milwaukee Brewers OVER 5.5 runs

It’s hard to not like the over in this game with the Brewers taking on the Mariners bullpen. Wade LeBlanc is expected to take the majority of the innings after opener Austin Adams departs. LeBlanc has been downright brutal on the road and faces a Brewers team that has raked against lefties at home. In those matchups, the Brewers own a .373 wOBA with a .269 ISO, all while averaging 5.1 runs per game at Miller Park. As for Mr. LeBlanc, he sports a .358 wOBA with a 4.57 xFIP through 19 2/3 innings on the road. 

This is not even taking into consideration what the Brewers could end up getting from Adams either. He’s not exactly a shutdown opener and has struggled with his command thus far, posting a BB% of 12.2%. No matter how you look at it, this is an excellent spot for the Brewers and should be one that is heavily considered on your end. My bets are already placed.

Oakland Athletics UNDER 4.5 runs

For whatever reason, Wainwright has looked like an ace when pitching at Busch Stadium. Through 40 1/3 innings, Wainwright has an impressive .303 wOBA and a 3.91 xFIP with just three of his nine home runs allowed. With the visiting Athletics in town, they lose the DH position, which means Khris Davis is out of the lineup. He’ll come in as a pinch-hitter at some point but not having to face him numerous times is certainly a boost to the stock of Wainwright. Quite frankly, the A’s haven’t been anything special against righties overall and own a team .315 wOBA with a .186 ISO. With the odds you’re getting on this bet, I think it’s well worth taking, especially with how well Wainwright has been at Busch Stadium this season.

Texas Rangers OVER 4.5 runs

The stock on Matthew Boyd seems to still be high despite a really poor month of June. During that period, a stretch of 22 innings, Boyd has a .378 wOBA with seven of his 14 home runs allowed. This is a power Rangers lineup that has a .171 ISO against lefties on the road, which ranks them right around league average. If Boyd continues to falter, I think the Rangers can easily hit the over in this game. The Tigers bullpen behind Boyd hasn’t been anything special either and they as well are struggling with the home run ball. With the Rangers offense clicking as it is as of late and the team averaging 5.4 runs on the road, I think this is a really good spot for them. Quite frankly, with the way the Boyd has been pitching as of late, this number could have been 5.5 runs.

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