MLB Betting – Braving the over against Nick Pivetta – The Quant Edge

MLB Betting – Braving the over against Nick Pivetta – The Quant Edge

We started off the week on a high note, going 2-1 on the MLB Betting plays I listed here last night. After saying that Dallas Keuchel doesn’t seem like he’s in the groove of things, he goes out and shows me up, handing us our only loss with the over on the Phillies 4.5 team total. We’ll look to keep on the winning side tonight with three more bets, including the Braves taking on a shaky Nick Pivetta. We hope to improve our 75-42 record on the season. As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Atlanta Braves OVER 5.5 runs

This is a very high total to target, but I really like this spot for the Braves going up against Nick Pivetta. He’s been a disaster on the mound and even worse when he’s away from Citizens Bank Park. On the road, Pivetta sports a .365 wOBA with a 4.21 xFIP with five of his 14 home runs allowed. Pivetta just recently pitched against Atlanta in June and lasted 6 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on eight hits and two walks. The Braves rank as one of the best hitting clubs in the league at home, so I’d expect more of the same in this start. It also doesn’t hurt that the winds will be blowing out toward center field at 7 mph and the first pitch is scheduled to be 90 degrees. Don’t let the high total scare you off here.

Cleveland Indians OVER 4.5 runs

Danny Duffy is taking the hill for the Royals tonight against an Indians team that scored nine runs against them last night. Duffy has been massively inconsistent this season and is someone who can easily implode on any given night. The Indians have been up and down when it comes to offense, but we’ve seen them score in bunches when they’re on. Duffy is suddenly struggling with the home run ball, allowing seven in the month of June after allowing just four between April and May.

It should be no coincidence that his ground ball rate has dropped every month this season, all the way down to 33% last month. The Indians have a number of hitters who hit lefties well and I think this matchup sets up well for an over. Just like in Atlanta, the winds will be blowing out tonight toward left field at 10 mph. For someone who is struggling with home runs, this sets up really well for the Indians to sneak an over in this game.

Los Angeles Angels UNDER 5.5 runs

This feels like a lot of offense for a team that is likely without one of their best hitters. Tommy La Stella was removed from last night’s game after fouling a ball hard off his shin and needed help off the field. It doesn’t look as if he’ll be in the lineup tonight, which makes a six-run total look quite large to hit. They’ll be facing Ariel Jurado, who is really flying under the radar as a starter.

At Globe Life Park of all places, Juardo sports an impressive .319 wOBA with a 4.30 xFIP. Of his eight starts all together, Jurado has allowed three runs or less in six of them. We certainly have the fear that Jurado could go out, pitch a really solid game and the Rangers bullpen goes out and ruins everything. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities, but I would be more inclined to fade this bet if it was at 4.5 runs instead of the 5.5. Until this total comes down (if it even does), I think the under is a much more attractive option.