MLB Betting – Are the Blue Jays worth the Price? – The Quant Edge

MLB Betting – Are the Blue Jays worth the Price? – The Quant Edge

A plethora (great word) of bets to choose from tonight as all 30 teams will be in action on a massive 15-game slate of baseball. After a good showing last week, we currently sit with a 73-41 MLB Betting record on the season as we look to improve those numbers with the All-Star break quickly approaching. Let’s take a look into three bets I’m looking at, including a suddenly hot-swinging Blue Jays team taking on the Red Sox.

Toronto Blue Jays OVER 3.5 runs

On the surface, this may not look like the most enticing bet to take. The Red Sox are running out David Price, who has been solid this season. However, if you look at how the Blue Jays have been hitting, this total may not be as hard to obtain after all. Over the last five games, the Jays are averaging 7.4 runs per game against the Yankees and Royals. Now they’ll have a tough assignment against Price but also have a less than stellar Red Sox bullpen to feast on later in the game.

Price has been good this season, don’t get me wrong. If this total was at 4.5 runs, I wouldn’t be as interested. It just feels a bit low considering how well these bats are swinging. Then you factor in the Red Sox bullpen, who have been putting a number of men on base (4.7 BB/9 last seven days) and struggling with home runs (1.6 HR/9 last seven days) and this bet feels a lot more attractive. The best part about all this is that you’re currently getting plus money on the over.

Philadelphia Phillies OVER 4.5 runs

The Phillies will face Dallas Keuchel, who still seems to be getting into the groove of things since being called up. He’s yet to go six innings in his two previous starts and hasn’t looked sharp in them. Now, he’ll face a Phillies team, who on the road against lefties, has been one of the better power clubs in the league with a .187 ISO. Like the Blue Jays, the Phillies have been posting some good offense as of late, averaging 5.2 runs per game over their last five, which includes three games at Marlins Park. I don’t imagine Keuchel going deep into this game so hitting the over on this total of 4.5 feels very obtainable. If anything, you’re taking a hot offense against a pitcher that still looks to be trying to find his form.

St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 4.5 runs

Usually not a big fan of taking the under against a team that has a shaky bullpen. However, this just goes to show how BAD this Cards offense has been as of late. After opening with Matt Carasiti, the Mariners are looking to turn the ball over to Wade LeBlanc. Look, I’m no LeBlanc truther or anything, but he’s been finding success in this role. Aside from a horrible game against the Athletics, LeBlanc has had an impressive run since essentially the end of May. Now he faces a struggling Cardinals club that has a .234 wOBA with a .071 ISO and a 26.2 K% over the past week. Not to mention, the Cardinals have not been a strong team against lefties, to begin with. Again, getting plus money on this bet makes it all the more enticing and I think this could be one of those sneaky plays on the night. 

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