MLB Betting – Athletics looking to provide fireworks – The Quant Edge

MLB Betting – Athletics looking to provide fireworks – The Quant Edge

Hope everyone had a good Independence Day! As you attempt to recover and figure out what on Earth happened last night, I’ll give some of my favorite bets on this 13-game slate in today’s MLB Betting article. We have some really good pitchers taking the mound AND some really, REALLY bad pitchers going. The Athletics are in a fantastic spot tonight against a pitcher we’ve seen them beat up already this season.

Hopefully, they’ll help us improve our 76-44 MLB Betting record on the season. Let’s jump into the information and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Oakland Athletics OVER 5.5 runs

So, Yusei Kikuchi is taking the mound for the Mariners once again, giving another team a great chance to hit the over on their team total. It’s been a nightmare first season in the majors for Kikuchi – who, as a starter, owns a .356 wOBA with a 5.07 xFIP and 18 home runs allowed.

He’s already faced the A’s three times and has given up 10 runs on 19 hits, four of which have gone for home runs, through 14 innings. The A’s have also been one of the better hitting clubs in the league against lefties with a .350 wOBA with a .232 ISO against them. When you put all this together with the addition of a really poor Mariners bullpen, I think this is a great spot to hit the over on their total. 

Baltimore Orioles OVER 4.5 runs

The Blue Jays will be using Aaron Sanchez on the mound, which hasn’t exactly gone well for them this season. In fact, Sanchez is coming off the month of June that saw him post a horrific .434 wOBA with a 6.09 xFIP and 36 runs allowed through 27 innings pitched. I don’t care what team you’re facing if you’re posting numbers like that, teams are going to hit you, even if it’s the Orioles.

Pitching at home hasn’t done Sanchez any favors either, as he has a .355 wOBA and a 4.95 xFIP through 41 2/3 innings at Rogers Centre. The worry here is that the Orioles haven’t been a great team on the road and are averaging just four runs a game in that scenario. However, I think Sanchez has proven time and time again that he’s truly THAT bad and the Orioles have a really good chance to hit the over. If this crept up to 5.5 runs, I’d be more likely to stay away but 4.5 feels obtainable.

Boston Red Sox OVER 6.5 runs

I hate taking the over on this total but you really have to think that this is possible. After being annihilated as a starter, Ryan Carpenter was sent down to the minors. This is someone who made seven starts and allowed 36 runs on 47 hits through 32 2/3 innings.

Now he faces a Red Sox club that has some really good power against lefties. 6.5 runs is A LOT to cover but doesn’t it feel safe to say that the Red Sox should get at least four off Carpenter before he departs? This is someone who, through the first time in the order, has a .459 wOBA with a 5.47 xFIP and a 47% hard-hit rate allowed. The second time around? Doesn’t get much better. I would honestly be shocked if the Red Sox didn’t knock him out of this game early and then be able to get a couple of runs left to hit the over in this spot.