Final Four Betting Preview

Final Four Betting Preview

It has been a successful tournament for us and our bets. We are finally approaching the end of the line here with the Final Four games tonight. I think there is a nice edge to be had on these two games. Let’s end on a couple winners.

Auburn +6

This game represents two styles of basketball that are completely different from each other. Auburn wants to play fast, while UVA wants to play slow. The only similarity between the two teams is they both love to shoot threes.

I love Auburn and the points here today because this is the worst possible matchup for UVA’s style of play. UVA is going to slow the game down and work to get three point shots near the end of the shot clock. What this does is limit the total number of possessions for both teams. UVA is extremely efficient in terms of scoring, so that is why this is an advantage for them most games.

This specific game, it actually could play against them though. Auburn is first in the country in turnovers forced. They are going to force UVA into turning the ball over which is going to lead to less possessions than UVA is used to. If they have any dip in efficiency, it could be an issue for UVA.

Auburn loves to shoot threes in transition and every player on their team can light it up from three point range. This is why they are so dangerous as you can’t key on one player.

Auburn is very similar to Florida State as they have defensive length and athleticism at every position. Auburn is a much better three point shooting team than Florida State though, so this should be an even steeper task for UVA than when they played FSU.

UVA struggled with the more athletic teams this year, including a ten point loss to FSU. Even though Okeke is out for Auburn, they are a next man up offense and can continue to produce, especially from three point range. Okeke’s presence inside shouldn’t affect Auburn too much because they showed they can handle a much bigger and more physical team inside in Kentucky last game.

I expect this to be a very close game throughout and Auburn has a real shot to win this game, so I love getting the six points here.

Michigan State -2

I have preached all year that I think Sparty should be in the consideration for the best team in the country. They have shown their ability to compete with and beat some of the best teams in the country. Today they are matched up with the best defense in the country in Texas Tech. This matchup actually doesn’t concern me too much for a couple reasons.

First, Sparty has faced some really good defenses this year including Michigan who was ranked the second best defense in the country per KenPom. They beat Michigan all three times they played them. They also beat a Duke team that, in my opinion, the reason they were so good was not only because of Zion, but because of their defensive length and athleticism. Texas Tech won’t be throwing anything at them defensively that they haven’t seen yet.

Secondly, and most importantly, the Spartans have Cassius Winston. He takes care of the basketball and makes the right play almost every single time. He creates his own shot almost as good as anyone in the country and he creates open looks for everyone else as well. The Spartans can knock down threes or drive the basket and they have a plethora of guys who can do this.

Lastly, they run a ton of high screen and rolls which draws the big men of the defense out of the paint which can negate some of that defensive length on the interior. If Texas Tech can’t slow Sparty down, they won’t be able to win this game because Sparty offers defensive length of their own that stifles opposing offenses. Getting clean shots off against Sparty is rare, and Texas Tech is not known for their offensive ability.

This is a matchup where Sparty actually owns the advantage in all aspects of the game and I think they pull this win out and make a run at a national title.