Eagles at Saints (-8) 51
CB Sidney Jones
- YPA with Jones – 6.66 without- 8.08.
- Explosive pass percentage with 13 percent, without 17.1 percent.
- Look for more big plays down the field if Jones is out.
WR Mike Wallace
- Fourth WR, Deep threat, slightest bump to Foles if he plays.
OT Terron Armstead
- Pass success rate is 8.1 percent higher with Armstead, explosive pass rate jumps two percent, sack rate drops 0.8 percent and YPA jumps from 7.37 to 8.84.
OG Larry Warford
- Only missed 72 snaps this season, but sack percentage jumped from 3.5 percent to 6.9 percent.
OT Andrus Peat
- Run success rate jumps five percent with Peat on the field.
The Eagles secondary is a mess. It’s why we attacked them with Trubisky and will look to do it again with Brees again Sunday. The Eagles are in the fifth percentile in attempts against, seventh percentile in yards allowed, and if Sidney Jones misses this game, the team gives up 8.08 yards per attempt with him off the field. At home this year, Drew Brees is averaging 27.5 points per game, with an insane 9.5 YPA, 21 touchdowns, just one interception and 321.6 yards per game. After Mahomes, he has the second highest floor on the slate. One thing to keep an eye on is his offensive line situation. If Armstead is back, it’s a massive bump to Brees and the offense.
People didn’t want to play Nick Foles when he was at a minimum price on FanDuel and near minimum price on DraftKings, but now he is 100 cheaper than Jared Goff and people seem to be all aboard. He has one game all season with 20-plus DraftKings points, has thrown for more than three touchdowns just once, and only gone over 300 yards twice in six starts this year. The best way to attack the Saints is deep down the field, Nick Foles just doesn’t do this, ranking 33rd of 36 quarterbacks in deep pass volume. I don’t think Foles has the ceiling you look for on a slate like this. The Saints have the ability to eliminate Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery and won this game 48-7 just seven weeks ago. At inflated ownership, Foles is a sharp fade.
Last year in two playoff games, Alvin Kamara combined for 21 carries, 67 yards, and one rushing touchdown on the ground, adding five catches 72 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets in the air. He has been playing around 65 percent of the snaps since the return of Mark Ingram. After scoring 30-or-more DraftKings fantasy points in three of four games without Ingram, he has scored over 30 points just once in 11 games with Ingram. The Eagles did a good job taking away Cohen last week and focused on him, but on the season, they give up 8.56 targets to backs per game and 4.66 yards per carry. They can be gashed for big plays and that is exactly what Kamara can bring. He is a GPP pivot off of Zeke and Gurley at lower cost, but equal upside. He lacks the floor and volume of both players.
The Eagles allow the fewest rushing attempt against of any team in the NFL. Ingram hasn’t seen more than two targets since Week 10 and will carry the ball 8-13 times in this one. Due to his big performance last game, going for 103 yards and two touchdowns versus the Eagles, he may come at inflated ownership. He lacks the volume to pay the price tag, and assuming he doesn’t get 100 yards and two touchdowns, he is an easy fade in this one with Williams and White better plays at cheaper costs.
Eagles Running Backs
No NFL team allows fewer rushing yards than the Saints. The Eagles split touches between three backs and are eight-point road underdogs. Full fade on this backfield.
The Eagles allow 108.77 yards per game to opposing WR1s. Allen Robinson just lit them up like Christmas, and Thomas dominated the Eagles on his limited touches last game, catching all four targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. Thomas has been dominant at home, averaging over 100 yards per game and has six touchdowns in eight games on 68 catches. There is no doubt Thomas is set up to succeed more than any other receiver on the slate. The one thing that could stop him is Bress. In six of Thomas’ last eight games, he has less than 10 targets, the two exceptions are the comeback versus the Steelers and the comeback versus the Buccaneers. All of his biggest volume games have come in back-and-forth games or major comebacks. If you expect the Saints to blow out the Eagles, you could gain leverage by fading the stud receiver.
Ginn has played in only five games this year, and in four of them, he has six-or-more targets. He doesn’t need high volume to be a slate breaker with his speed and the Eagles’ struggles in the secondary and deep down the sidelines. On average the Eagles give up 78.43 yards per game on passes 15-or-more yards down the field and funnel 18 percent of the targets to opposing WR2s. Make sure to have some Ginn exposure as the late hammer.
Last game out versus the Saints and Marshon Lattimore, Jeffery finished with 33 yards on five targets. The Saints have struggled versus every receiver imaginable this year, giving up 109.25 yards per game to top WRs and 85.06 yards on passes 15-or-more yards down the field, the most in the NFL. Latimore is a tough matchup for Jeffrey, but the Saints defense is putrid in the secondary. If Foles increases his deep shots and Jeffery maintains his workload, he has a chance to pay off his price tag in GPPs.
Does Foles take the shots down the field? If he does and Agholor faces off versus Eli Apple all game long, he could be a solid sleeper play on Sunday. The Saints allow 73.58 yards per game to opposing WR2s and 0.5 touchdowns. With six-or-more targets in three straight games, Agholor is worth a punt in GPPs in a plus matchup.
No team forces more targets and allowed more touchdowns to opposing WR3s than the New Orleans Saints. Tate played 62 percent of the snaps in the wildcard round for the Eagles and saw eight targets. His snap volume is volatile, but the matchup is as good as it will ever be. If Foles sticks to the way he has historically played and doesn’t take shots deep, Tate could be in for a high volume day in a good matchup.
The Saints eliminated Ertz last meeting, holding him to just 15 total yards. On the season, Saints have held opposing TE1s to just 31.33 yards on 11 percent target share. Ertz has the talent to beat anyone, and Foles will look his way, but the Saints will make it a point of emphasis to take him away. He is a pivot off of Ebron where you are betting on the talent, but if you kind find the money pay up for Kelce.
They play too many for you to play one.
I expect this game to be a pound out match, but Foles has only been sacked five times and thrown three interceptions in six games. The Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and if they can keep Foles upright, it will be tough for the Saints to wrack up the points. As the most expensive defense, I will look elsewhere for the savings.
The Eagles defense could come in play if the Saints are missing multiple offensive linemen. If not, no interest in a team facing off versus Drew Brees at home, where he has thrown just one interception this entire season.
Eliot Crist is the Sports Product Manager for The Quant Edge.He is a fantasy analyst with a background in scouting, analytics, and fantasy research. Formerly he has contributed at PFF, 4for4, Bleacher Report, Powerhour, and NDT Scouting. Eliot combines watching tape with analytics to try and take angles that other analysts aren’t to gain an edge for you.