After a relatively dull 2-2 wildcard round, I’m ready to divvy up some NFL player props for what should be the season’s best weekend of football!
Damien Williams Over 49.5 Rushing Yards AND 29.5 Receiving Yards
I hope the number is the same as when I posted in the TQE chat about betting these. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, “hopes are not high” that RB Spencer Ware will play today. This means it is wheels up for Damien Williams who will be the Chiefs workhorse back. These props are still set as if Spencer Ware will be playing at full health. With the highest total on the slate, we can expect both teams to go back and forth. Not to mention the Colts defense is one of the most overrated in the league due to their strength of schedule.
Earlier in the week I tweeted out, “The Colts defense has played just one team in the top-10 of offensive efficiency. That was against the #Patriots (No. 5 in O efficiency). In that game they allowed 38 points, Tom Brady to complete 34-of-44 (77.3%) passes, and Sony Michel to run for 98 yards on 5.4 YPC.”
The Chiefs offense will present a stark difference from the Colts standard opponents and ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency.
Beyond the likely offensive explosion from the Chiefs, the Colts have allowed the most targets to running backs this season (140) and second most receptions (110). They also rank in the 0th percentile of weighted opportunity allowed to running backs, the ninth percentile of targets per game, and 25th percentile of receiving yards per game allowed.
There is also expected to be a bit of snow during the game, which could shift the Chiefs to a run-heavier gameplan. The Colts haven’t been bad against the run but I expect volume to help him easily push over 50 rushing yards. The Colts have still allowed 84.56 yards per game to opposing backs. With the props set too low in a strong spot for Williams, he should be able to smash both.