Last week, Damien Williams rushing prop nearly hit three times the line that was set. The receiving prop we listed in this column fell just a few yards short and Williams actually dropped a 10-yard pass. With the Chiefs controlling the game, Williams became less involved in the passing game and we ended up winning just one of his prop bets despite the handicap being largely correct. This slate is an interesting one with two rematches and both games combining for 163 points. It’s highly unlikely we see that much scoring this time around but it’s certainly possible.
Travis Kelce Under 85 receiving yards
Kelce is a player I generally don’t like to bet against because of his talent but In this situation, we have a three-game sample size of Bill Belichick scheming to stop Kelce successfully. In their past three meetings, Kelce has lines of 5/61/0 > 5/40/0 > 6/23/0.
The major caveat is that while Kelce was kept under wraps, Tyreek Hill has exploited them for 100+ yards in every contest. It’s conceivable that the Patriots shift their gameplan towards stopping him and conceding more catches to Kelce. Guessing when and how Bill Belichick is going to change his scheme is extremely tough and probably something we should avoid.
The Chiefs are also three-point favorites, which means it’s unlikely they fall into the significant negative game script. This means they will run and throw at a normal amount and are unlikely to inflate anyone’s numbers in garbage time. Trust Belichick and take the under with confidence.