Betting guide for Week 14 in NFL

Betting guide for Week 14 in NFL

2018 Record: 38-25-2 (60 percent)

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns +1
This is a really interesting line. Last week, the Cleveland Browns were just 5.5-point underdogs on the road against the Houston Texans. Let’s look into the numbers here.

Offensive AY/A:

Houston: 7.7
Carolina: 7.0
Cleveland: 6.1
Defensive AY/A:

Cleveland: 6.2
Houston: 6.5
Carolina: 7.4
Houston is clearly a much better team than the Carolina Panthers. Despite that, this line suggests that the Panthers would be seven-point favorites at home, more than Houston was favored last week. Carolina is probably closer to Cleveland in talent than Houston. There are some logical flaws here.

The overreaction to the Browns this year has been crazy. Baker Mayfield plays well, there’s huge value on the Houston Texans the next week. Baker Mayfield plays poorly, there’s huge value on taking him the next week. These recent lines seem to be reacting too strongly based on what how the team looked like just the week before…which is odd since the Panthers could not stop coughing up the ball against a Tampa Bay team that could not force turnovers all year last Sunday.