Quite the odd Friday night slate. Some big offensive production, but also some major question marks. Today we have a 9 game early and 6 game main slate to break down. The early slate has a ton of offense to target. When looking at the TQE Line Movement tool we have 5 games with IRT over 5, one of which is the Astros taking out the Trash, as well as a couple more that are getting close to 5. For the evening slate there will be a couple main targets and then we will have to get contrarian elsewhere. Let’s see what bats we are targeting for tonight’s Batter Breakdown.
Early- Mitch Garver has returned from the IL and is picking up where he left off. Garver has homered in 2 of the 4 games he’s started since his return and will look to continue slugging vs Tigers LHP, Gregory Soto. It’s a small sample, but Soto has been very bad this season and especially vs RHH. Righties are hitting .373 with a .462 wOBA and a 47% HH rate this season. The LHP, Joe Palumbo, will be getting the call from AA for the Ranges to start Game 1 of the double dip. That bodes well for an Oakland offense that loves facing LHP. Look at Josh Phegley or Nick Hundley, whoever gets the Game 1 start. A cheaper option could be Elias Diaz vs Davies.
Late- With so much good pitching for a shorter slate there aren’t a lot of catching options that stand out before lineups. The main targets would be Jonathan Lucroy vs Kikuchi or punt with Jeff Mathis. Hopefully things clear up when lineups come out.
Early- Jay Bruce sure did welcome himself to Philadelphia last night, hitting his 4th home run in his last 3 games. Today he gets Tanner Roark who is allowing a .307 average, a .404 wOBA and a 37% HH rate to LHH this season. Mark Canha is a bit cheaper and gets to face the lefty Palumbo in Arlington. On the season Canha has a .372 wOBA, .528 SLG and a 35% HH rate vs LHP. You can 100% go back to CJ Cron as well vs the LHP Soto as he continues to mash LHP. Lastly, feel free to punt it out with Yuli Gurriel or Yonder Alonso.
Late- There are some really nice high priced options with Cody Bellinger vs Shark or Howie Kendrick vs Lauer. But if you want to be contrarian and save a few bucks then target Anthony Rizzo vs Jack Flaherty. You will get Rizzo low owned facing Flaherty who has been getting beat up vs LHH this season. Lefties are slugging .479 with 2 HR/9 and a 48% HH rate. A cheaper option would be Dominic Smith who is hitting .444 over his last 6 games with 3 home runs and a .582 wOBA.
Early- Mike Moustakas didn’t go deep last night, but did put up another double digit DK night. He faces Jordan Lyles today who’s giving up a .348 wOBA and a .478 SLG vs LHH this season. A cheaper option is Chad Pinder and his ability to crush LHP. This season Pinder has a .359 wOBA and a 50% HH rate vs LHP. Cesar Hernandez leading off vs Roark and Tony Kemp who homered last night facing Cashner today are both cheaper options. If you want the full on punt then check out Hanser Alberto leading off vs a lefty.
Late- Second base is very very weak tonight, so I’ll be looking to just save money. I’ll either be riding the hot bat of Brian Dozier vs the lefty Lauer or go GPP with Rougned Odor vs Blackburn.
Early- Alex Bregman and Mike Moustakas make 2 nice higher priced options, but there are a couple right below them worth the savings. Matt Chapman in Arlington vs a lefty is always nice or you can check out the red hot Yoan Moncada vs Brad Keller. In GPPs you can go back to the Colin Moran well vs Davies. Or just go ahead and punt with the WAY TOO CHEAP Marwin Gonzalez vs Soto.
Late- You can definitely go back to the Nats even though they slightly disappointed last night. Anthony Rendon and Howie Kendrick are both facing the lefty Lauer who is giving up a .417 SLG and a 45% HH rate vs RHP this season. This season Steven Matz is giving up a .466 SLG, 2 HR/9 and a 44% HH rate which puts Nolan Arenado in play big time tonight. There aren’t a ton of cheaper options outside of Max Muncy, Asdrubal Cabrera or Kyle Seager.
Early- Francisco Lindor and Jorge Polanco are 2 very solid options if choosing to pay up today. Marcus Semien is coming off a double dong game Friday night and will look to build on his success vs LHP today. If you want to go full YOLO feel free to punt with Richie Martin of the Orioles.
Late- Trevor Story is pricey but has a nice matchup tonight vs Matz. You could go a little cheaper and play Elvis Andrus vs Blackburn who is riding a 5 game hitting streak where he’s hitting .304. Or attack the Shark with Corey Seager. This season Seager has a .365 wOBA and a 44% HH rate and will look to add onto that tonight vs Shark. Marcus Semien and Tim Beckham are a couple other options.
Early- It obviously starts with Christian Yelich, but as I said last night, don’t forget Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain. The Astros are in a great spot today vs Cashner and that once again brings into play Michael Brantley, the scorching hot Josh Reddick, and even some Derek Fisher. The Twins are a big one to attack and that means Nelson Cruz, who went deep on Friday night, a cheap Marwin Gonzalez, Byron Buxton, and then the lefty duo of Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler. Some one offs to look into are David Peralta, Aaron Hicks, Khris Davis and Stephen Piscotty
Late- Keep on riding that Mike Trout train tonight vs Yusei Kikuchi. This season RHH are hitting .275 with a .450 SLG vs Kikuchi. Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl are going up against a LHP in Matz but could be nice contrarian plays. We know how well Marcell Ozuna hits LHP and he gets Lester tonight who’s been very good; but, LHH are still slugging .429 with a 43% HH rate off Lester this season. Michael Conforto has hit safely in 4 straight games and homered in 2 of those 4, he has a great matchup vs Gray tonight. The A’s and Rangers have some nice targets, depending on who plays Game 2 of the double header. Lastly don’t forget Kyle Schwarber vs Flaherty.
Early- HOU, MIN, MIL, OAK, NYY, CWS
Late- WAS, LAD, TEX, COL, SEA
Brian has been playing Fantasy Sports, and more importantly Fantasy Baseball for over a decade. He’s been playing DFS for 4 years now. This will be his 4th season recording MLB DFS Quick Hits. He runs and writes for FantasySportsDegens. Records many podcasts including Benched with Bubba, Around the Bases with Bubba & Mo, Always Pressing PGA DFS POD and the 2 Point Conversion NFL DFS POD. You can contact him on Twitter @bdentrek.