What an insane Wednesday night we witnessed. The A’s were chalky and they went off. The Nats put up 15. And so so so much more. It was a wild one and the continued talk of the baseballs possibly being juiced again is starting to feel more and more correct. On Thursday we have a 5 game early and 5 game main slate, but for the Batter Breakdown we will be only talking about the 5 game main. For questions on the early check out MLB DFS Quick Hits and join us in the member Discord chat. With all that being said, let’s see who we are targeting on the mound and at the dish tonight.
With only a 5 game slate tonight the options are limited. We have Joe Musgrove coming off 7 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts vs the Reds, but be careful as the weather is not looking great at Wrigley. Steven Matz is coming off 5 shutout innings vs the Nats and has only given up 1 ER in his first 2 starts. Downside to Matz is he hasn’t gone more than 5.1 innings and faces the Braves, but he’s still in play for me. My third and final main target will be Jeff Samardzija at home vs the Rockies. Shark hasn’t looked great to start the season, not going more than 5 innings in his first 2 starts. He will be at home tonight vs a beat up and struggling Rockies team outside of Coors field. On a slate with very suspect pitching, Shark is in play.
There aren’t a ton of options tonight. You can look at Blake Swihart who is swinging a hot bat. He’ll be facing Aaron Sanchez who does have a heavy ground ball rate, and lso Sanchez some reverse splits that slightly go against Swihart. With all that being said, Blake is still in play, just something to think about. The play I like at catcher the most is Francisco Cervelli vs Jose Quintana. Quintana has struggled a bit in recent years vs RHH, giving up a .323 wOBA, a 14% HR/FB and a 34.6% HH rate. The weather doesn’t look great, but batters may be worth the risk and in that case count me in on Cervelli. The last catcher I’ll be looking at is Tyler Flowers vs Steven Matz. I like Matz, but he also gives up loud contact to RHH. In 2018 righties had a .319 wOBA and a HH rate over 45%. Flowers returned from his injury on Tuesday in Coors and should be ready to roll tonight vs Matz.
You have Freddie Freeman vs Matz and he’s in play but pricey. If you go down a bit you can take a look at Rowdy Tellez vs Nate Eovaldi. Eovaldi has been beat up in his first 2 starts of the season and runs into a hungry Jays team that beat up Chris Sale on Tuesday. Tellez is a solid play when you like at Eovaldi’s career numbers vs LHH. Eovaldi has given up a 285 BA, a .341 wOBA and a HH rate of 33%. Tellez gives some savings tonight. If you are looking for another cheap option look no further than Brandon Belt vs Jon Gray. Last year, even on the road lefties hit Gray well. They hit .273 with a .356 wOBA and a 45% HH rate.
Other First Base Options- Mitch Moreland, Christian Walker
We know how well Ozzie Albies hits left handed pitching and he is firmly in play tonight. If you are looking to not pay up to the top you can look at Ketel Marte vs Pedro Avila who was just called up from Double A….after making his first ever Double A start. Marte already has 3 home runs on the season with 2 stolen bases and a 41% HH rate. Lastly if you need a punt look at Luis Urias vs Zack Godley. Strictly a punt play.
Other Second Base Options- Robinson Cano
Manny Machado is coming off a Wednesday where he hit his 3rd home run of the season and now faces Zack Godley in Arizona. Last season RHH had a .305 wOBA and a 39.6% HH rate off Godley and Machado is one of the top plays tonight. If you want to save some cash look into Eduardo Escobar who has 9 or more DK points in 3 of his last 5 games and will take his hacks vs the youngster Avila. If you need an uber punt look into Jung Ho-Kang vs Quintana in Wrigley.
Other Third Base Options- Nolan Arenado, Jeff McNeil, Rafael Devers
If you need to go cheap you can use the likes of Jung Ho-Kang and Luis Urias, both mentioned above. If you want to pay up at the position you have the likes of Xander Bogaerts vs the reverse splits of Aaron Sanchez. Fernando Tatis Jr. had the day off on Wednesday and looks to get back to hitting. Zack Godley may be able to help with that. Tatis has 11 or more DK points in 3 of his last 4 and makes for a nice mid priced play tonight.
Other Shortstop Options- Trevor Story, Nick Ahmed, Freddy Galvis
There are a lot of solid options and some solid duos tonight. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are in smash spots vs Aaron Sanchez and his reverse splits. If you want to save some cash you can ride the red hot Mets with Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. Gausman has given up a fly ball rate over 35%, a hard hit rate around 35% and a HR/FB rate over 12% in recent years to LHB and that could be big for the Mets duo. One of the cheaper options I like is Starling Marte. We mentioned above the succes lefties have had against Quintana and the discount on Marte is pretty solid. Lastly, if you really want some value you can ride the red hot bat of Kevin Pillar and the lead off bat of Steven Duggar vs Jon Gray. Both are at $3400 and below and are in good spots vs Jon Gray.
Other Outfield Options- Hunter Renfroe, David Peralta, Adam Jones, Jason Heyward, Brandon Belt, Nick Markakis
The Red Sox vs Aaron Sanchez is a really nice one. Yes, he has a decent ground ball rate, but does give up the long ball and the reverse splits really favor some of the big power bats of the Bo Sox. The DBacks vs the youngster Avila is a GPP type play. The DBacks bats haven’t exactly been on fire, but they are in a good spot tonight vs Avila.
Other Stacking Options- Mets, Pirates, Padres, Giants
Brian has been playing Fantasy Sports, and more importantly Fantasy Baseball for over a decade. He’s been playing DFS for 4 years now. This will be his 4th season recording MLB DFS Quick Hits. He runs and writes for FantasySportsDegens. Records many podcasts including Benched with Bubba, Around the Bases with Bubba & Mo, Always Pressing PGA DFS POD and the 2 Point Conversion NFL DFS POD. You can contact him on Twitter @bdentrek.